Well, there's not too much left for me to say regarding my pre-season prediction that the Royals would be a .500 team. It was wrong, disgraceful, incredibly optimistic, and potentially deranged thinking. I can admit that. And I will not even point to injuries as the cause of this destruction, because that would be what us fans refer to as a COPOUT. Instead, I will attempt to paint the Royals season through a series of brutal statistics that will illicit either tears of rage, uproarious laughter, or blatant disinterest, depending on your state of mind. Enjoy.
-Alex Gordon has 64 at-bats this season.
Total number of extra base hits: 1.
Total number of extra base-hits since 1st at-bat of the season: 0.
Yes, that's right. Alex Gordon has not recorded an extra base-hit since his first at-bat of the season. I understand that he only has 64 official at-bats, but that is actually 4 more than...
-Recently Designated For Assignment Ryan Freel, who was cut loose after a whopping 60 at-bats in a Royals uniform.
Number of extra base-hits with the Royals: 2.
Or in other words, with 4 less at-bats than Alex Gordon, Ryan Freel doubled his extra base-hit output. Just to hammer this point home, as if Gordon's Joey Gathright-like power numbers don't explain the whole story, consider the following:
Ryan Freel's line while with the Royals (AVG/OBP/SLG): .217/.319/.250
Alex Gordon's line with the Royals (AVG/OBP/SLG): .203/.329/.250
Ryan Freel's status with the Royals: DFA'd
Alex Gordon's status with the Royals: Savior
Listen, I don't want to rip on Alex Gordon here. I am an unabashed apologist for Gordon, and I still believe that he will blossom into a steady and productive regular who may make an All-Star game one day. But he is looking an awful lot like a replacement-level player right now, and these statistics show me more Joe Randa than Evan Longoria. Maybe expectations need to be lowered a little.
BONUS STATS
-David DeJesus has stolen 3 bases this season. He has been caught stealing a whopping 7 times. No one else on the team has been caught stealing more often than they've stolen a base.
-Joakim Soria has appeared in 29 games this year, and posted a 1.71 ERA. Lefty specialist John Bale has appeared in 30 games, with a 6.75 ERA.
-Royals relievers whose last names are not Soria are a combined 3-19 in save opportunities. I kid you not. Look it up.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Monday, July 20, 2009
Billy Butler's Emerging, Right?
I was looking at Billy Butler's Baseball Reference page and noticed that his number of at-bats this season, at age 23, are nearly identical to his total at-bats during his rookie campaign. Despite Billy's apparent emergence, the numbers are eerily, eerily similar.
------ -AB-runs-hits-2B--HR-RBI-BB--SO--BA----OBP--SLG---TB
2007:-329--38--96--23---8---52--27--55-.292-/.347/-.447-147
2009:-333--38--98--28---8---38--27--59-.294-/.346/-.450-150
Which stat stands out? RBI. Despite greater or equal production in nearly every offensive category,
Plate appearances with:-Bases empty-RISP-Bases loaded
Evan Longoria: -------------184 ------136 ------10
Billy Butler:-----------------216-------88--------6
Billy Butler has come to the plate 32 more times with the bases empty than Evan Longoria. That’s roughly equivalent to 8 full games of hitting with no one on base. Butler has also batted with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) 48 fewer times than Longoria, or about 12 full games less. It’s also worth noting that in the biggest RBI opportunity, with the bases loaded, Butler has had 4 fewer opportunities than Longoria and a whopping 9 fewer than Jason Bay. Bay leads the American League with 72 RBI and Longoria is 3rd with 70 RBI.
-He’s hit 17 doubles that didn’t result in an RBI, and 16 doubles in which he didn’t eventually score a run.
-7 of his 8 home runs have come with the bases empty.
Analysis: Despite a lack of home runs, Billy Butler is doing everything he should to be about a 100 RBI producer. With nearly identical production as his great rookie season,
Monday, June 22, 2009
There is Absolutely No Way This Can Get Worse
And so here we are. It's dark. It's depressing. I wouldn't see the light at the end of the tunnel with the Hubble telescope. The Royals have lost five straight games, three by the score of 12-5 (think about that), heading into the mericful off-day tonight. Gil Meche was tattooed Sunday at Kaufman stadium, giving up 9 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. It was the worst start of his career, the kind of start you'd have nightmares about. Meche will likely check under his bed, in the basement, and the closet for Albert Pujols before falling asleep for some time.
Pujols TKO'd Gil Sunday on a monstrous, now orbiting home run with the bases loaded. It wasn't much of a shock. After all, Pujols is Pujols, and the Royals are The Royals. Meche could have thrown a 117 mph slider on the outside corner and it likely would have ended up lodged into the video board. Pujols is now 4-4 with three home runs and 14 RBI's with the bases loaded this year. I don't even have the heart to mention that he played his formative years at Kansas City's own Fort Osage High School and Maple Woods Community College.
What else is there to say about this team? Position players Jose Guillen, Alex Gordon, Coco Crisp, John Buck, Mike Aviles, and Tony Pena Jr. have all spent a significant amount of time on the DL. Pitchers Doug Waechter, Robinson Tejeda, Joakim Soria, John Bale, and Sidney Ponson have done the same. The offense is anemic, the bullpen provides little to no relief, and the fielding has been abysmal. There's only one more question left to ask: can things possibly get any worse?
I don't think so. First off, players are beginning to get healthy. Soria looks to be back in action. John Buck appears close to making his comeback from back spasms. Alex Gordon is only a couple of weeks away from returning after three months off with a torn hip muscle. Mike Aviles is resuming baseball activities this week. Coco Crisp, well Coco is pretty well screwed. But the rest of the guys could be back by the end of the All-Star break, and that can't be discounted: the returns of these players likely means demotions for cotton-soft hitters Luis Hernandez, Tony Pena Jr., and/or Tug Hulett. That in itself should win us 30-40 more games in the second half.
Also, Zack Greinke still leads the league in ERA, shutouts, and complete games. Moreover, he will have the chance to hit for the first time this year tomorrow night in Houston, which means a productive bat in the lineup to replace DH(Designated Hacker)/fielding black hole Mike Jacobs.
The Royals do lead the majors with an astounding 26 triples, a stat that can seem impressive, but also one that magnifies the team's frustrating propensity for hitting warning track fly balls.
There are several other untracked statistics which the team is likely excelling as well. Ones that I feel that Royals are around the league lead in include: 1. inherited runners scored- the bullpen has an incredible knack for allowing inherited runners to score before tightening things down when their runners are in scoring position. If you don't believe me on this one, ask Kyle Davies, Zack Greinke, and Sidney Ponson. 2. line drive outs- Tug Hulett alone had three of these in Sunday's drubbing to the Cardinals. Chances are if the Royals really need a hit, they will crush a laser right at the right fielder. What I wouldn't give to see that stat. 3. taking first base on strikeouts- Nothing more needs to be said than Miguel Olivo. I've seen Olivo advance to first twice on atrocious off-speed pitches either in the dirt, way outside, or in the dirt and way outside. I'd imagine that most teams have that happen maybe twice a season, but not the Royals. No, we have the Mighty Miguel Olivo.
So, yeah, things may look irreversible. And spirits may seem unliftable. And Trey Hillman may appear to be absolutely clueless, many times over, during the exhaustive season. But MLB history says that things cannot get any worse, that the Royals cannot get blown out in any more consecutive games without becoming terrible in an entirely original, historical sense. I don't think this team is that bad. Through it all, we can take solace in the fact that no matter how deep, and no matter how long, there is always light at the end of the tunnel. Even if you can't see it with the Hubble telescope.
Pujols TKO'd Gil Sunday on a monstrous, now orbiting home run with the bases loaded. It wasn't much of a shock. After all, Pujols is Pujols, and the Royals are The Royals. Meche could have thrown a 117 mph slider on the outside corner and it likely would have ended up lodged into the video board. Pujols is now 4-4 with three home runs and 14 RBI's with the bases loaded this year. I don't even have the heart to mention that he played his formative years at Kansas City's own Fort Osage High School and Maple Woods Community College.
What else is there to say about this team? Position players Jose Guillen, Alex Gordon, Coco Crisp, John Buck, Mike Aviles, and Tony Pena Jr. have all spent a significant amount of time on the DL. Pitchers Doug Waechter, Robinson Tejeda, Joakim Soria, John Bale, and Sidney Ponson have done the same. The offense is anemic, the bullpen provides little to no relief, and the fielding has been abysmal. There's only one more question left to ask: can things possibly get any worse?
I don't think so. First off, players are beginning to get healthy. Soria looks to be back in action. John Buck appears close to making his comeback from back spasms. Alex Gordon is only a couple of weeks away from returning after three months off with a torn hip muscle. Mike Aviles is resuming baseball activities this week. Coco Crisp, well Coco is pretty well screwed. But the rest of the guys could be back by the end of the All-Star break, and that can't be discounted: the returns of these players likely means demotions for cotton-soft hitters Luis Hernandez, Tony Pena Jr., and/or Tug Hulett. That in itself should win us 30-40 more games in the second half.
Also, Zack Greinke still leads the league in ERA, shutouts, and complete games. Moreover, he will have the chance to hit for the first time this year tomorrow night in Houston, which means a productive bat in the lineup to replace DH(Designated Hacker)/fielding black hole Mike Jacobs.
The Royals do lead the majors with an astounding 26 triples, a stat that can seem impressive, but also one that magnifies the team's frustrating propensity for hitting warning track fly balls.
There are several other untracked statistics which the team is likely excelling as well. Ones that I feel that Royals are around the league lead in include: 1. inherited runners scored- the bullpen has an incredible knack for allowing inherited runners to score before tightening things down when their runners are in scoring position. If you don't believe me on this one, ask Kyle Davies, Zack Greinke, and Sidney Ponson. 2. line drive outs- Tug Hulett alone had three of these in Sunday's drubbing to the Cardinals. Chances are if the Royals really need a hit, they will crush a laser right at the right fielder. What I wouldn't give to see that stat. 3. taking first base on strikeouts- Nothing more needs to be said than Miguel Olivo. I've seen Olivo advance to first twice on atrocious off-speed pitches either in the dirt, way outside, or in the dirt and way outside. I'd imagine that most teams have that happen maybe twice a season, but not the Royals. No, we have the Mighty Miguel Olivo.
So, yeah, things may look irreversible. And spirits may seem unliftable. And Trey Hillman may appear to be absolutely clueless, many times over, during the exhaustive season. But MLB history says that things cannot get any worse, that the Royals cannot get blown out in any more consecutive games without becoming terrible in an entirely original, historical sense. I don't think this team is that bad. Through it all, we can take solace in the fact that no matter how deep, and no matter how long, there is always light at the end of the tunnel. Even if you can't see it with the Hubble telescope.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Shaking Things Up is Not a Long-Term Solution
Kansas City sports fans are angry. The Sprint Center is vacant. The Chiefs have yet to make their much anticipated splash in the free agent or trade market. And the Royals, well, the Royals just won't stop losing. It's quite a plight.
As it is whenever rock-bottom approaches, the fans are screaming for change. And it doesn't seem like a wild notion. The Royals have lost 5 of 6 and 12 of 16. They've dropped below .500 for the first time since opening week. They look, by all accounts, lost at the plate, totalling four runs in their last four games combined. It seems as if serious change is in order. But I say not so fast.
The Royals have already made some relatively major roster moves in the past couple of days that should eventually provide a spark for the team. First, they sent Luke Hochevar down to Omaha, a move that allows the team to transition to a four-man rotation for the next couple of weeks.
While I didn't feel Luke should have been given up on so quickly, all indications show that is not exactly the case. In fact, the demotion had more to do with the bullpen's horrendous showing in the past couple of weeks. Roman Colon takes Hochevar's spot on the roster, and figures to help patch up a bullpen with serious issues (especially after losing Robinson Tejeda). John Bale also returns to provide a solid lefty arm to a bullpen that is currently sending out the carcass of Horacio Ramirez to fill that lefty vacancy every couple of days. Mike Aviles has been demoted to the DL, a move which is becoming increasingly popular for teams looking to hide struggling regulars. So, all together we have two healthy new bullpen arms and another utilityman, the intriguing Tug Hulett. That constitutes a major shake-up in my book.
The arrival of Bale is the major addition. He will swiftly boot Ramirez from his role as a lefty specialist (finally), allowing the Royals to dismiss the faithful HoRam from the team once and for all. I'm not going to mince words here: Horacio Ramirez will be cut as soon as John Bale proves himself to be a far better option, a feat that should not be difficult to accomplish when compared with Ramirez's brutal efforts.
Once Ramirez is gone and stud closer Joakim Soria is back, the Royals will be freed up to add Hochevar to the big league squad once again. At this point, order will be restored to the universe and the Royals can once again resume winning ball games at their early-season rate.
OK, well it may not be as easy as 1-2-3, or A-B-C for that matter, but the point is that the Royals do not necessarily need to look for help outside of their own organization. People in Kansas City are overreacting to what is commonplace in a 162 game baseball season: a stretch of bad baseball. The team is currently just a game under .500 and 4 games back of division leading Detroit. Relax. If they're this close after a prolonged streak of incessant losing, then a mild winning streak will likely put them right near the division lead. Fans need to remember that this team is not as bad as they look right now, I guarantee it. The offense will eventually start scoring more than one run per game and Coco Crisp and David DeJeseus will get their batting averages up past .250. Billy Butler and Jose Guillen will hit for more power, and Alex Gordon will infuse this lineup with energy when he returns at the end of next month. All these things will happen, as long as Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman keep the faith and don't panic.
It may be difficult to see right now (as the Royals are getting one-hit by Detroit starter Edwin Jackson through 5 innings), but this team will turn it around. I just hope there are still fans piling into the new ballpark by the time it happens.
As it is whenever rock-bottom approaches, the fans are screaming for change. And it doesn't seem like a wild notion. The Royals have lost 5 of 6 and 12 of 16. They've dropped below .500 for the first time since opening week. They look, by all accounts, lost at the plate, totalling four runs in their last four games combined. It seems as if serious change is in order. But I say not so fast.
The Royals have already made some relatively major roster moves in the past couple of days that should eventually provide a spark for the team. First, they sent Luke Hochevar down to Omaha, a move that allows the team to transition to a four-man rotation for the next couple of weeks.
While I didn't feel Luke should have been given up on so quickly, all indications show that is not exactly the case. In fact, the demotion had more to do with the bullpen's horrendous showing in the past couple of weeks. Roman Colon takes Hochevar's spot on the roster, and figures to help patch up a bullpen with serious issues (especially after losing Robinson Tejeda). John Bale also returns to provide a solid lefty arm to a bullpen that is currently sending out the carcass of Horacio Ramirez to fill that lefty vacancy every couple of days. Mike Aviles has been demoted to the DL, a move which is becoming increasingly popular for teams looking to hide struggling regulars. So, all together we have two healthy new bullpen arms and another utilityman, the intriguing Tug Hulett. That constitutes a major shake-up in my book.
The arrival of Bale is the major addition. He will swiftly boot Ramirez from his role as a lefty specialist (finally), allowing the Royals to dismiss the faithful HoRam from the team once and for all. I'm not going to mince words here: Horacio Ramirez will be cut as soon as John Bale proves himself to be a far better option, a feat that should not be difficult to accomplish when compared with Ramirez's brutal efforts.
Once Ramirez is gone and stud closer Joakim Soria is back, the Royals will be freed up to add Hochevar to the big league squad once again. At this point, order will be restored to the universe and the Royals can once again resume winning ball games at their early-season rate.
OK, well it may not be as easy as 1-2-3, or A-B-C for that matter, but the point is that the Royals do not necessarily need to look for help outside of their own organization. People in Kansas City are overreacting to what is commonplace in a 162 game baseball season: a stretch of bad baseball. The team is currently just a game under .500 and 4 games back of division leading Detroit. Relax. If they're this close after a prolonged streak of incessant losing, then a mild winning streak will likely put them right near the division lead. Fans need to remember that this team is not as bad as they look right now, I guarantee it. The offense will eventually start scoring more than one run per game and Coco Crisp and David DeJeseus will get their batting averages up past .250. Billy Butler and Jose Guillen will hit for more power, and Alex Gordon will infuse this lineup with energy when he returns at the end of next month. All these things will happen, as long as Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman keep the faith and don't panic.
It may be difficult to see right now (as the Royals are getting one-hit by Detroit starter Edwin Jackson through 5 innings), but this team will turn it around. I just hope there are still fans piling into the new ballpark by the time it happens.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Time For Blood Tests in All Major Sports
I know what I'm about to write is considered blasphemy to major American sports. I know that the unions in charge of the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL consider my upcoming suggestion to be a gross invasion of privacy . I know that these unions will fight to the death to protect their inalienable right to hide the supplements being injected into their athletes bodies. I know all these things, and yet I can't help myself in spite of them. Circumstances in professional sports today have left us with no other choice: we need blood testing.
Now, I know it seems radical to ask professional athletes making millions of dollars, who are in some cases tied directly to the marketing campaigns of their respective teams (Mannywood, anyone?), and are subject to huge fines and public relations suicide if connected to performance enhancing drugs, to allow teams the privilege of ensuring they're not pumping their bodies full of testosterone, human growth hormone, anabolic steroids, and fertility drugs before signing them to lucrative, guaranteed contract extensions, but...oh wait, that's not radical at all.
The idea that Major League Baseball players are not already subject to blood tests after the swell of controversy in their sport is what's laughable. How many uber-stars need to be outted before the powers-that-be decide enough is enough? Do we need David Ortiz to Twitter that he just received his shipment of Stanozolol? Or a Youtube video of Mark McGwire injecting Jason Giambi in an Oakland A's bathroom stall? How about a thank you card from Brett Boone to Jose Canseco for the juicing tips he received?
I'm only half joking here. I mean, assume you are the owner of an MLB team. I'll offer you a purely hypothetical scenario here. You have a big-time star who is destined to become a free agent following the current season. He is having a great year and the team is in contention. You and your people meet with his agent to discuss a contract extension, and you get a lucrative ten-year contract hammered out. You are ponying up hundreds of millions of dollars to secure this one player, and are content that his drawing power and sheer numbers will be worth the investment. Several months after the ink dries on the contract, this player admits, at the coaxing of the national media, to having used steroids for several years of his career. Now, how exactly do you feel about that ten-year, guaranteed contract you've just handed out?
You're furious, right? This player has not only duped his loyal fan base, but also the fans of your team and yourself personally. He has cashed in on a guaranteed contract that will keep his family afloat for generations, while at the same time making sure to finish the deal before any allegations arose. Pretty nifty move, huh?
Well, we all know that this kind of thing would never be possible, not anymore, not after Congress and Canseco, The Rocket and The (Mitchell) Report, not after mandatory steroids testing. It's just not possible. There is too much scrutiny, and the system works. Well, tell that to Hal Steinbrenner and the New York Yankees front office, the suckers who signed Alex Rodriguez to an unprecedented 275 million dollar contract mere months before he admitted to a history of doping.
Looking back, weren't there some fishy aspects about that deal? Namely, remember back to the negotiations, when it looked like a deal would not happen due to Scott Boras' ridiculous demands. Alex Rodriguez pushed Boras out of the room and came to an agreement with the Yankees himself. That was a truly unprecedented move. Just when talks were beginning to stall, A-Rod ousted his mega-agent and brokered the deal himself? How anxious was he to get something done before the offseason? Why was he so anxious? Did Rodriguez realize his image as a "clean" player was about to go up in smoke?
Obviously, there is no certain way to answer those questions, at least not yet. But one thing we do know is that Alex Rodriguez was very aware of his juicing past during negotiations, even if others weren't. And Rodriguez seemed very eager to scrap his old contract and draw up a new one.
The truth is, it doesn't matter whether Alex Rodriguez knew of his impending demise or not. What matters is that a team is paying 275 million dollars to a tarnished star, and are on the hook for the length of the ten year deal regardless. Why shouldn't they have the right to give the man a blood test before embarking on that type of long-term investment? It makes good business sense, and any player who was clean should have no problem submitting to a simple test in order to earn that payday.
Now, the various sports' unions will have none of this. Blood testing is an invasion of privacy, or at least that is what they're sticking to. But answer me this: is blood testing any more an invasion of privacy than a tell-all book about someone's past transgressions? How about a congressional hearing in which a former trainer claims to inject you in the buttucks with a syringe-full of steroids? How's that for invasion of privacy?
In the world of Youtube, Facebook, and Twitter, there is no such thing as privacy for a professional athlete. Earning a living playing sports is a privilege, not a right of passage, and it's high time that point was hammered home. A simple drug test to help clean up American sports would be a great way for our professional sports leagues to lash out against performance enhancing drugs, and this time with some authority. Blood tests should be the least of any athlete's concerns. That is, unless they have something to hide.
Now, I know it seems radical to ask professional athletes making millions of dollars, who are in some cases tied directly to the marketing campaigns of their respective teams (Mannywood, anyone?), and are subject to huge fines and public relations suicide if connected to performance enhancing drugs, to allow teams the privilege of ensuring they're not pumping their bodies full of testosterone, human growth hormone, anabolic steroids, and fertility drugs before signing them to lucrative, guaranteed contract extensions, but...oh wait, that's not radical at all.
The idea that Major League Baseball players are not already subject to blood tests after the swell of controversy in their sport is what's laughable. How many uber-stars need to be outted before the powers-that-be decide enough is enough? Do we need David Ortiz to Twitter that he just received his shipment of Stanozolol? Or a Youtube video of Mark McGwire injecting Jason Giambi in an Oakland A's bathroom stall? How about a thank you card from Brett Boone to Jose Canseco for the juicing tips he received?
I'm only half joking here. I mean, assume you are the owner of an MLB team. I'll offer you a purely hypothetical scenario here. You have a big-time star who is destined to become a free agent following the current season. He is having a great year and the team is in contention. You and your people meet with his agent to discuss a contract extension, and you get a lucrative ten-year contract hammered out. You are ponying up hundreds of millions of dollars to secure this one player, and are content that his drawing power and sheer numbers will be worth the investment. Several months after the ink dries on the contract, this player admits, at the coaxing of the national media, to having used steroids for several years of his career. Now, how exactly do you feel about that ten-year, guaranteed contract you've just handed out?
You're furious, right? This player has not only duped his loyal fan base, but also the fans of your team and yourself personally. He has cashed in on a guaranteed contract that will keep his family afloat for generations, while at the same time making sure to finish the deal before any allegations arose. Pretty nifty move, huh?
Well, we all know that this kind of thing would never be possible, not anymore, not after Congress and Canseco, The Rocket and The (Mitchell) Report, not after mandatory steroids testing. It's just not possible. There is too much scrutiny, and the system works. Well, tell that to Hal Steinbrenner and the New York Yankees front office, the suckers who signed Alex Rodriguez to an unprecedented 275 million dollar contract mere months before he admitted to a history of doping.
Looking back, weren't there some fishy aspects about that deal? Namely, remember back to the negotiations, when it looked like a deal would not happen due to Scott Boras' ridiculous demands. Alex Rodriguez pushed Boras out of the room and came to an agreement with the Yankees himself. That was a truly unprecedented move. Just when talks were beginning to stall, A-Rod ousted his mega-agent and brokered the deal himself? How anxious was he to get something done before the offseason? Why was he so anxious? Did Rodriguez realize his image as a "clean" player was about to go up in smoke?
Obviously, there is no certain way to answer those questions, at least not yet. But one thing we do know is that Alex Rodriguez was very aware of his juicing past during negotiations, even if others weren't. And Rodriguez seemed very eager to scrap his old contract and draw up a new one.
The truth is, it doesn't matter whether Alex Rodriguez knew of his impending demise or not. What matters is that a team is paying 275 million dollars to a tarnished star, and are on the hook for the length of the ten year deal regardless. Why shouldn't they have the right to give the man a blood test before embarking on that type of long-term investment? It makes good business sense, and any player who was clean should have no problem submitting to a simple test in order to earn that payday.
Now, the various sports' unions will have none of this. Blood testing is an invasion of privacy, or at least that is what they're sticking to. But answer me this: is blood testing any more an invasion of privacy than a tell-all book about someone's past transgressions? How about a congressional hearing in which a former trainer claims to inject you in the buttucks with a syringe-full of steroids? How's that for invasion of privacy?
In the world of Youtube, Facebook, and Twitter, there is no such thing as privacy for a professional athlete. Earning a living playing sports is a privilege, not a right of passage, and it's high time that point was hammered home. A simple drug test to help clean up American sports would be a great way for our professional sports leagues to lash out against performance enhancing drugs, and this time with some authority. Blood tests should be the least of any athlete's concerns. That is, unless they have something to hide.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
A Look at my 2009 Official Royals Predictions
One month of baseball has already passed us by (where did all the days go?) and it is time to take a look at my Official Royals Predictions for 2009. These were made prior to the year and were admittedly seasoned with as much optimism as I could muster. Let's take a prediction-by-prediction look at exactly how badly my Royals blinders have been exposed so far.
Prediction No. 1: Alex Gordon or Billy Butler will be an (ahem) All-Star.
This was by far the most egregious example of my blatant homerism on this blog. What can I say?
Let's start with Alex Gordon, who went on the disabled list after two weeks and a 2 for 21 slump to begin the season. So my guess is that it's safe assume he won't be representing Major League Baseball in St. Louis this summer. While the early slump was troubling, it can be explained (somewhat) by the hip he initially injured on Opening Day. Being a gamer, Gordon attempted to play through the injury. It just didn't work out. The injury does nothing to take away from his enormous potential, but Gordon will be on the shelf until late June and can't be considered an All-star candidate (at least until 2010).
In Hindsight: Gordon will one day be a great player, but his injury makes this prediction a major failure.
Butler's case is at least slightly more compelling, if only for the recent signs of life his bat has shown. But all in all, things are not looking good. Butler began the season with on a 2 for 22 streak, not collecting his first home run until his two-dinger outburst Wednesday night against Toronto. The early slump mirrored the beginning of his 2008 season, and simultaneously shamed me (greatly) for guaranteeing that it would not happen again.
So it goes. The bright spot here is Butler's recent two-game "hot streak", which has raised his batting average from a deplorable .193 to a now reasonable .262. Still hopelessly searching for more bright spots, it's worth noting that Butler does sport a totally respectable .377 on base percentage. While he would certainly be a collossal underdog, considering he is not even on the ballot, at least he isn't out until July.
In Hindsight: This does not look good, But at least he is showing signs of life. If I'd written this post a week ago, I would literally have had nothing good to say.
Prediction No. 2: The Royals will have at least 3 representatives at this years All-Star game.
This whole prediction was essentially predicated on either Butler of Gordon catching fire in the season's first two months. Since that hasn't exactly happened (yet), things aren't looking especially rosy in that department.
But that doesn't mean that I've given up on the prediction. There are still some positives to glean from here. Zack Greinke does not even really need to be mentioned, as he is now a national media darling following his (literally) unhittable start to the season. Greinke is 5-0 with a 0.50 ERA, and leads the league in shutouts, complete games, ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Besides that he's been rather pedestrian. The early season favorite for the American League Cy Young award, I'd say it's safe to say Greinke is an All-star lock.
So let's assume that Greinke will be the Royals "automatic selection". That doesn't mean that he will be the only Royal selected. Because all-star pitchers are selected by the managers, there is at least a decent shot that another pitcher will accompany Zack to St. Louis. Gil Meche has also started the season strong, although he has only one win to show for it due to some tough luck. The other candidate remains Joakim Soria, the outstanding young closer. I called Soria an all-star lock, and he would be exactly that if his recent bout of shoulder soreness dissipates quickly. Soria has still posted 5 saves and a 1.80 ERA despite the injury, so if it is as minor as Trey Hillman says, Soria could have a great chance at a second consecutive Summer Classic appearance.
Even with Soria and Greinke, the Royals will need at least one batter to make the squad. While Butler and Gordon were the two I pegged to grab that coveted third slot, a better candidate might be 3B-2B-RF-1B Mark Teahen. Teahen is batting .320 thus far with a .414 OBP, and if you don't understand those numbers, suffice it to say they are very good. When considering that said player has manned four different positions for the team thus far, his value rises even higher. Teahen has displayed excellent opposite-field power, taking all three of his home runs the other way. If we are finally seeing the late 2006 Teahen, he could be a sleeper all-star selection. Also going Teahen's way is the fact he's actually on the ballot, which is more than my man Billy Butler can say. I think he's got at least an outside shot.
In Hindsight: The non-factors Gordon and Butler hurt the prediction, but Greinke's emergence leaves the Royals with two pretty likely candidates (along with Soria). It is entirely feasible that Meche, Teahen, or someone else joins those two. Saying that, I'll need a few breaks to nail this prediction.
Prediction No. 3: The Royals will finish over .500 in 2009, with 83 wins.
Here we are at last, with a prediction that is not only possible, but (gulp) borderline likely. The Royals are currently 12-10, and stand atop the AL Central standings. Even the most critical of Royals fans are glowing with excitement now. With a strong 1-2-3 in the rotation, the Royals seem like a good bet to compete all season long. The Central has been lacking thus far, and Kansas City has a bit of momentum as they turn into the summer months. As well as they have played, things could easily be better for the division leaders. Without even considering the blown saves Kyle Farnsworth has graced us with, the Royals would be better off if any number of the following had happened in April: Alex Gordon had not been injured, Billy Butler had played to his expectations, Joakim Soria had avoided shoulder discomfort, Jose Guillen had not partially torn a muscle in his hip, Mike Aviles had bypassed the sophomore jinx, and (this week's sign of the apocalypse) Sidney Ponson had gotten some run support. So I think its safe to hope that things may actually improve for this squad. Now, if only Billy Butler can just erupt in May...
In Hindsight: I got a little help from Nostradamus with this one. It looks like the Royals could be even better than I thought, a missed prediction I could certainly live with.
Prediction No. 1: Alex Gordon or Billy Butler will be an (ahem) All-Star.
This was by far the most egregious example of my blatant homerism on this blog. What can I say?
Let's start with Alex Gordon, who went on the disabled list after two weeks and a 2 for 21 slump to begin the season. So my guess is that it's safe assume he won't be representing Major League Baseball in St. Louis this summer. While the early slump was troubling, it can be explained (somewhat) by the hip he initially injured on Opening Day. Being a gamer, Gordon attempted to play through the injury. It just didn't work out. The injury does nothing to take away from his enormous potential, but Gordon will be on the shelf until late June and can't be considered an All-star candidate (at least until 2010).
In Hindsight: Gordon will one day be a great player, but his injury makes this prediction a major failure.
Butler's case is at least slightly more compelling, if only for the recent signs of life his bat has shown. But all in all, things are not looking good. Butler began the season with on a 2 for 22 streak, not collecting his first home run until his two-dinger outburst Wednesday night against Toronto. The early slump mirrored the beginning of his 2008 season, and simultaneously shamed me (greatly) for guaranteeing that it would not happen again.
So it goes. The bright spot here is Butler's recent two-game "hot streak", which has raised his batting average from a deplorable .193 to a now reasonable .262. Still hopelessly searching for more bright spots, it's worth noting that Butler does sport a totally respectable .377 on base percentage. While he would certainly be a collossal underdog, considering he is not even on the ballot, at least he isn't out until July.
In Hindsight: This does not look good, But at least he is showing signs of life. If I'd written this post a week ago, I would literally have had nothing good to say.
Prediction No. 2: The Royals will have at least 3 representatives at this years All-Star game.
This whole prediction was essentially predicated on either Butler of Gordon catching fire in the season's first two months. Since that hasn't exactly happened (yet), things aren't looking especially rosy in that department.
But that doesn't mean that I've given up on the prediction. There are still some positives to glean from here. Zack Greinke does not even really need to be mentioned, as he is now a national media darling following his (literally) unhittable start to the season. Greinke is 5-0 with a 0.50 ERA, and leads the league in shutouts, complete games, ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Besides that he's been rather pedestrian. The early season favorite for the American League Cy Young award, I'd say it's safe to say Greinke is an All-star lock.
So let's assume that Greinke will be the Royals "automatic selection". That doesn't mean that he will be the only Royal selected. Because all-star pitchers are selected by the managers, there is at least a decent shot that another pitcher will accompany Zack to St. Louis. Gil Meche has also started the season strong, although he has only one win to show for it due to some tough luck. The other candidate remains Joakim Soria, the outstanding young closer. I called Soria an all-star lock, and he would be exactly that if his recent bout of shoulder soreness dissipates quickly. Soria has still posted 5 saves and a 1.80 ERA despite the injury, so if it is as minor as Trey Hillman says, Soria could have a great chance at a second consecutive Summer Classic appearance.
Even with Soria and Greinke, the Royals will need at least one batter to make the squad. While Butler and Gordon were the two I pegged to grab that coveted third slot, a better candidate might be 3B-2B-RF-1B Mark Teahen. Teahen is batting .320 thus far with a .414 OBP, and if you don't understand those numbers, suffice it to say they are very good. When considering that said player has manned four different positions for the team thus far, his value rises even higher. Teahen has displayed excellent opposite-field power, taking all three of his home runs the other way. If we are finally seeing the late 2006 Teahen, he could be a sleeper all-star selection. Also going Teahen's way is the fact he's actually on the ballot, which is more than my man Billy Butler can say. I think he's got at least an outside shot.
In Hindsight: The non-factors Gordon and Butler hurt the prediction, but Greinke's emergence leaves the Royals with two pretty likely candidates (along with Soria). It is entirely feasible that Meche, Teahen, or someone else joins those two. Saying that, I'll need a few breaks to nail this prediction.
Prediction No. 3: The Royals will finish over .500 in 2009, with 83 wins.
Here we are at last, with a prediction that is not only possible, but (gulp) borderline likely. The Royals are currently 12-10, and stand atop the AL Central standings. Even the most critical of Royals fans are glowing with excitement now. With a strong 1-2-3 in the rotation, the Royals seem like a good bet to compete all season long. The Central has been lacking thus far, and Kansas City has a bit of momentum as they turn into the summer months. As well as they have played, things could easily be better for the division leaders. Without even considering the blown saves Kyle Farnsworth has graced us with, the Royals would be better off if any number of the following had happened in April: Alex Gordon had not been injured, Billy Butler had played to his expectations, Joakim Soria had avoided shoulder discomfort, Jose Guillen had not partially torn a muscle in his hip, Mike Aviles had bypassed the sophomore jinx, and (this week's sign of the apocalypse) Sidney Ponson had gotten some run support. So I think its safe to hope that things may actually improve for this squad. Now, if only Billy Butler can just erupt in May...
In Hindsight: I got a little help from Nostradamus with this one. It looks like the Royals could be even better than I thought, a missed prediction I could certainly live with.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Tony Gonzalez Trade Leaves Me Guessing
Today, after months of speculation, Tony Gonzalez was traded to the Atlanta Falcons. This in itself is not especially surprising. Gonzalez trade rumors had been floating around far too long for a deal not to have happened by this Saturday's NFL draft.
And the Chiefs received a second round pick for Gonzalez, which was also no surprise, but rather just solid compensation for a Pro-Bowl player just closing out the prime of his career. No, the only real surprise was that the second round draft pick the Chiefs received was for the 2010 draft. The one that's two days and one year away.
On the outside, this makes little sense. The Chiefs were already down a second round pick this year due to the trade that brought Matt Cassel over from New England. Gonzalez was supposed to be the chip that brought that pick back to us. Now, Kansas City is without a choice between the no. 3 overall pick and the 67th selection in the draft. Put in other words, the Chiefs will make their first selection at approximately 3:30 p.m. Central time on Saturday. Their next selection will come at about 9:30 a.m. on Sunday morning.
Now, maybe the Falcons were the only team offering a second round pick for Gonzalez. If that's the case, why not search for a team in the lower half of the third round willing to offer a pick in this year's draft? The Philadelphia Eagles were known to express interest, and the Green Bay Packers were after Tony G before last season's trading deadline. Shouldn't someone have been willing to pony up with a pick in this year's draft?
With so many holes to fill, (linebacker, Defensive end, running back, offensive tackle/guard, now tight end) I can only assume now that Kansas City GM Scott Pioli has another major move planned before Saturday. A hunch tells me that move would be an attempt to trade the number 3 pick in the draft.
For months now, I have held out hope that Aaron Curry would be available when the Chiefs make their first selection Saturday. Even before the Combine, Curry seemed like the best overall prospect in the draft. After the Combine, he became a sure-thing. There is now talk out of Detroit (where the woeful Lions hold the top pick in the draft) that if they can't agree to a deal with quarterback Matthew Stafford before the draft, they will take Wake Forest grad Curry, whose agent has already hammered out a contract just in case.
If that situation does play out, Kansas City will be in an interesting position. If Stafford slips to No. 3, The Chiefs should be able to entice bidders for the right to choose him. With Seattle sitting at No. 4 and thinking quarterback, it would be a high-leverage situation that Scott Pioli would be sure to exploit. It all sounds great on paper, at least.
Pioli would do well for himself to secure more draft picks for the young Chiefs. The roster he inherited is young and flawed. Trading Tony Gonzalez will hurt both in the passing game and in their blocking schemes, and its going to take several players to fill that void. As of now, I don't see how Pioli and Co. can possibly do that this offseason. At least, that is, unless the Lions do in fact take Aaron Curry. A guy can dream, right?
And the Chiefs received a second round pick for Gonzalez, which was also no surprise, but rather just solid compensation for a Pro-Bowl player just closing out the prime of his career. No, the only real surprise was that the second round draft pick the Chiefs received was for the 2010 draft. The one that's two days and one year away.
On the outside, this makes little sense. The Chiefs were already down a second round pick this year due to the trade that brought Matt Cassel over from New England. Gonzalez was supposed to be the chip that brought that pick back to us. Now, Kansas City is without a choice between the no. 3 overall pick and the 67th selection in the draft. Put in other words, the Chiefs will make their first selection at approximately 3:30 p.m. Central time on Saturday. Their next selection will come at about 9:30 a.m. on Sunday morning.
Now, maybe the Falcons were the only team offering a second round pick for Gonzalez. If that's the case, why not search for a team in the lower half of the third round willing to offer a pick in this year's draft? The Philadelphia Eagles were known to express interest, and the Green Bay Packers were after Tony G before last season's trading deadline. Shouldn't someone have been willing to pony up with a pick in this year's draft?
With so many holes to fill, (linebacker, Defensive end, running back, offensive tackle/guard, now tight end) I can only assume now that Kansas City GM Scott Pioli has another major move planned before Saturday. A hunch tells me that move would be an attempt to trade the number 3 pick in the draft.
For months now, I have held out hope that Aaron Curry would be available when the Chiefs make their first selection Saturday. Even before the Combine, Curry seemed like the best overall prospect in the draft. After the Combine, he became a sure-thing. There is now talk out of Detroit (where the woeful Lions hold the top pick in the draft) that if they can't agree to a deal with quarterback Matthew Stafford before the draft, they will take Wake Forest grad Curry, whose agent has already hammered out a contract just in case.
If that situation does play out, Kansas City will be in an interesting position. If Stafford slips to No. 3, The Chiefs should be able to entice bidders for the right to choose him. With Seattle sitting at No. 4 and thinking quarterback, it would be a high-leverage situation that Scott Pioli would be sure to exploit. It all sounds great on paper, at least.
Pioli would do well for himself to secure more draft picks for the young Chiefs. The roster he inherited is young and flawed. Trading Tony Gonzalez will hurt both in the passing game and in their blocking schemes, and its going to take several players to fill that void. As of now, I don't see how Pioli and Co. can possibly do that this offseason. At least, that is, unless the Lions do in fact take Aaron Curry. A guy can dream, right?
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Chiefs Should Make a Play For Cutler
I'm going to be unabashed here in my belief that the Chiefs would do well to quietly go after Jay Cutler. When I say quietly, the emphasis is on avoiding a Broncos-esque PR disaster that leads Chiefs brass into an uncomfortable situation with recently acquired QB Matt Cassel. Before you remind me of everything that is wrong with Jay Cutler and exploring a trade for him, (crybaby, egomaniac, quitter, pretty boy...I know) at least listen to some very sound reasons why it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.
For starters, I'm not afraid to admit, I actually like Cutler as a football player. He is an above average quarterback bordering on elite who, at age 25, has just completed his best year as a pro. It was his first full season since being diagnosed with diabetes and his performance came despite seven Broncos running backs ending the season on IR. The defense was horrific. Mike Shanahan was on the verge of being fired. It was a tough end to a season full of expectations.
But Cutler emerged as the team leader, often playing from behind and never selling out his over-exposed defense. He made the Pro Bowl, throwing for over 4,000 yards. He did more than any young quarterback should ever be asked to do. And yet Shanahan was fired after the disappointing season. Hotshot Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels was chosen as his successor. McDaniels assured Cutler that he was the teams quarterback of the present and future. He then, like clockwork, informed offensive coordinator and Cutler confidant Jeremy Bates that he was no longer in Denver's plans. Some would say this was a great way to alienate your best player and team leader, but Cutler handled it relatively well. What he didn't handle so well was when the team, mere weeks after assuring him he was their man, swung hard and missed on former New England Patriots and current Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel. Tell me, what Pro Bowl quarterback would take that news well?
So, you say, boo hoo. And I agree. I'm not shedding any tears for Cutler. But this fiasco may well turn into an opportunity for the Chiefs, if they are so inclined. The Chiefs have a luxury that not one other team in the NFL can claim: they have the quarterback that the Denver Broncos covet. Think about it. This could make for some fantastic bargaining leverage. Some people say that the Broncos would never trade Cutler to a division rival. And normally I would concur. But the wild card is Cassel. This is the Broncos guy. Acquiring him would solve this whole controversy.
Owner Pat Bowlen's announcement that Cutler will be traded further complicates things for the team. Every team in the league now knows there is no turning back. Furthermore, the Broncos will need a new starting quarterback in any deal that they make. So why not go for the guy they wanted in the first place? Because the Chiefs have all of that highly sought leverage, they could potentially trade the quarterbacks even up and ditch the 14 million dollars guaranteed to Cassel by franchise-tagging him this season. If they wanted to push their luck, they might be able to coerce a late round pick out of them too, just to prove they won the deal. And what, you wonder, is the financial obligation to Cutler? I never thought you'd ask. He makes a whopping 1.035 million this season, and 5.4225 mil next season, including incentives. That's less money than a one year commitment to Cassel.
Right now the Chiefs are holding all the cards if they choose to jump into the bidding for Cutler. But you have to get in the game to win big.
For starters, I'm not afraid to admit, I actually like Cutler as a football player. He is an above average quarterback bordering on elite who, at age 25, has just completed his best year as a pro. It was his first full season since being diagnosed with diabetes and his performance came despite seven Broncos running backs ending the season on IR. The defense was horrific. Mike Shanahan was on the verge of being fired. It was a tough end to a season full of expectations.
But Cutler emerged as the team leader, often playing from behind and never selling out his over-exposed defense. He made the Pro Bowl, throwing for over 4,000 yards. He did more than any young quarterback should ever be asked to do. And yet Shanahan was fired after the disappointing season. Hotshot Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels was chosen as his successor. McDaniels assured Cutler that he was the teams quarterback of the present and future. He then, like clockwork, informed offensive coordinator and Cutler confidant Jeremy Bates that he was no longer in Denver's plans. Some would say this was a great way to alienate your best player and team leader, but Cutler handled it relatively well. What he didn't handle so well was when the team, mere weeks after assuring him he was their man, swung hard and missed on former New England Patriots and current Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel. Tell me, what Pro Bowl quarterback would take that news well?
So, you say, boo hoo. And I agree. I'm not shedding any tears for Cutler. But this fiasco may well turn into an opportunity for the Chiefs, if they are so inclined. The Chiefs have a luxury that not one other team in the NFL can claim: they have the quarterback that the Denver Broncos covet. Think about it. This could make for some fantastic bargaining leverage. Some people say that the Broncos would never trade Cutler to a division rival. And normally I would concur. But the wild card is Cassel. This is the Broncos guy. Acquiring him would solve this whole controversy.
Owner Pat Bowlen's announcement that Cutler will be traded further complicates things for the team. Every team in the league now knows there is no turning back. Furthermore, the Broncos will need a new starting quarterback in any deal that they make. So why not go for the guy they wanted in the first place? Because the Chiefs have all of that highly sought leverage, they could potentially trade the quarterbacks even up and ditch the 14 million dollars guaranteed to Cassel by franchise-tagging him this season. If they wanted to push their luck, they might be able to coerce a late round pick out of them too, just to prove they won the deal. And what, you wonder, is the financial obligation to Cutler? I never thought you'd ask. He makes a whopping 1.035 million this season, and 5.4225 mil next season, including incentives. That's less money than a one year commitment to Cassel.
Right now the Chiefs are holding all the cards if they choose to jump into the bidding for Cutler. But you have to get in the game to win big.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Kansas Will Be Fine Even If Stars Leave
No one would blame them for cashing in while the iron is hot. From a purely fiscal standpoint, Kansas stars Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich would do well for themselves by dropping out of school, declaring for the draft, and channeling all of their energy into pre-draft workouts. Aldrich scored big in the NCAA Tournament by turning in his first career triple-double, a 13 point, 20 rebound, 10 block extravaganza against Dayton. He also played well in the Sweet 16 loss to Michigan State, turning in 17 points to go with 14 rebounds, 4 assists, (only) 4 blocks, and 2 steals. His draft stock skyrocketed with his showing, and he's got little reason to stay at KU, earning a top-notch education aside.
Sherron Collins nearly equalled Aldrich's production, as he shot 32-58 for the tournament, good for 55% shooting. Collins was the clear leader of a team that overachieved all season long. Collins was a force, and the numbers back that up. Collins currently ranks 4th among the tournament's leading scorers, a feat that only gets more impressive when one considers he played one less game than every other player in the top 10. A junior, Collins has nothing left to gain(financially) and everything to lose by staying for another season. The Jayhawks will have a highly touted class coming in next year, and it is unlikely that he will be able to improve upon his 2009 NCAA Tournament production with more talent around him.
My thought is that both players should go. The program can only be helped by sending their promising young talents on to greener pastures and NBA success. As sad as it is, promising recruits with NBA dreams want to go to a school where they can fulfill their unlimited, and largely untapped, potential. Kansas, under head coach Bill Self, is becoming increasingly appealing to these players. With Aldrich and Collins pumping up the school's draft profile yet again, the remaining undecided high school seniors (ahem, John Wall and Lance Stephenson) may be intrigued at the chance to be the man on a contending team with unsurpassed tradition. Even with the loss of their two best players, Kansas will be strong next year.
They have already secured Top 30 recruits Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson, along with Arizona 7-foot transfer Jeff Withey, who will be available for the Spring semester. With even modest improvement from the Morris twins, the Jayhawks could still have a formidable frontcourt. The backcourt, with newcomer Johnson to go with sophomores-to-be Tyshawn Taylor, Mario Little, Travis Releford as well as juniors Brady Morningstar and Tyrell Reed, will be inexperienced but talented. Am I arguing that the 2009-2010 Kansas team will be better without Collins and Aldrich? No.
But, being the glass-is-half-full guy that I am, I can envision a situation where losing the two best players may yet provide a boon to the program. If both players do bolt for the NBA, the door may just open for another top recruit to sway his choice of where to train for the 2010 NBA draft next season.
And, you know, go to school while he's at it.
Sherron Collins nearly equalled Aldrich's production, as he shot 32-58 for the tournament, good for 55% shooting. Collins was the clear leader of a team that overachieved all season long. Collins was a force, and the numbers back that up. Collins currently ranks 4th among the tournament's leading scorers, a feat that only gets more impressive when one considers he played one less game than every other player in the top 10. A junior, Collins has nothing left to gain(financially) and everything to lose by staying for another season. The Jayhawks will have a highly touted class coming in next year, and it is unlikely that he will be able to improve upon his 2009 NCAA Tournament production with more talent around him.
My thought is that both players should go. The program can only be helped by sending their promising young talents on to greener pastures and NBA success. As sad as it is, promising recruits with NBA dreams want to go to a school where they can fulfill their unlimited, and largely untapped, potential. Kansas, under head coach Bill Self, is becoming increasingly appealing to these players. With Aldrich and Collins pumping up the school's draft profile yet again, the remaining undecided high school seniors (ahem, John Wall and Lance Stephenson) may be intrigued at the chance to be the man on a contending team with unsurpassed tradition. Even with the loss of their two best players, Kansas will be strong next year.
They have already secured Top 30 recruits Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson, along with Arizona 7-foot transfer Jeff Withey, who will be available for the Spring semester. With even modest improvement from the Morris twins, the Jayhawks could still have a formidable frontcourt. The backcourt, with newcomer Johnson to go with sophomores-to-be Tyshawn Taylor, Mario Little, Travis Releford as well as juniors Brady Morningstar and Tyrell Reed, will be inexperienced but talented. Am I arguing that the 2009-2010 Kansas team will be better without Collins and Aldrich? No.
But, being the glass-is-half-full guy that I am, I can envision a situation where losing the two best players may yet provide a boon to the program. If both players do bolt for the NBA, the door may just open for another top recruit to sway his choice of where to train for the 2010 NBA draft next season.
And, you know, go to school while he's at it.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Predictable Big 12 Tournament Gets a Dash of the Unexpected
Since its inception in 1997, the Big 12 Tournament has been predictable. And really, that is an understatement. In the 12 years of its existence, The Big 12 Tournament has only been won by four teams. Kansas has won 6, Oklahoma 3, Oklahoma State 2, and Iowa State 1 in what can only be described as their Marcus Fizer/Jamaal Tinsley glory year(singular). No seed below #3 has ever won the crown.
So I should say that the Big 12 Tournament is as predictable as April showers, more predictable than May flowers, and only slightly less predictable than a Missouri loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. So it should not be surprising that I'm currently searching for evidence that I've entered the Twilight Zone. Allow me to recap.
Tournament action began on Wednesday afternoon, and things looked about normal as Nebraska ducked out in the first round. Despite being seeded higher than Baylor, was there any doubt that the Huskers would make a first round upset? Chalk that up there with predictable things that happen during the Big 12 Tournament, along with Kansas State losing their first game in demoralizing fashion*. So no one was shocked to see Baylor pull the "upset", because lets face it, they were supposed to be the better team anyway.
*Four words for you: The Pervis Pasco game.
It was business as usual the rest of the afternoon as Texas and Oklahoma State took care of business, sealing enticing match-ups in Round 2 against Kansas State and Oklahoma, respectively. So when Texas A&M began handling Texas Tech, taking an easy 48-29 halftime lead, yours truly and others let out a collective yawn and prepared ourselves for the next days action. Unfortunately for us, we missed the creepy Twilight Zone intro music that started up at about the same time.
Because after the break, the Texas Tech Mike Singletary's exploded for 58 points, including 29 consecutive points for Mr. Singletary himself that surged the suddenly dangerous Red Raiders to an 88-83 victory. It was a virtuoso performance, from a distinctly un-virtuoso type of player. In essence, it was exactly what this Tournament needed. And it didn't end there.
Thursday provided the most impressive string of upsets in Big 12 Tournament history, with 3 of the 4 higher seeds going down. The onslaught began when Kansas faced Baylor in the 11:30 a.m tipoff game. Baylor took advantage of the early start and raced out to a 17 point first half lead. Luckily, a frantic University of Kansas employee was able to coerce the drowsy Kansas team from their rooms to play the second half, and things stabilized for the Jayhawks. They stormed back and took a five point lead with a few minutes to play, all but ensuring that they would make the Semifinals for the umpteenth consecutive year. But Baylor forgot that they were supposed to collapse and fought until the final buzzer, pulling out an impressive 71-64 victory.
Kansas State (predictably) went on to lose to #5 seed Texas, trying to restore order to a tournament that threatened to go haywire at any moment. But their efforts simply were not enough to keep things on track, as Oklahoma State upended Oklahoma in a one point victory and secured a semi-final berth. Texas Tech ran out of gas in their matchup against Missouri, making the Tigers the only top seed to advance to the semi-final round.
So here we were with the conventional #9-#5 and #3-#7 matchups in Friday's games, with Baylor and Texas kicking things off and Missouri-Oklahoma State as the nightcap. Remember that no team seeded lower than #3 has ever won the Big 12 Tournament. Even this round is a significant event in a tournament that up until this year has been anything but a crapshoot.
And what happened? Well, Baylor continued its odyssey by winning against Texas and advancing to the Big 12 Title game. They will face Missouri there, a Missouri team which has everything to play for. And by everything, I mean a possible placement in Kansas City from the NCAA Tournament Selection. But Baylor, they've got a thing or two left to say to. There's nothing quite like playing a basketball game in Oklahoma City that's watched by college basketball coaches, pundits, and players all across the country. The University of Wisconsin will watch it. And Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. USC will be interested, as will Saint Mary's, Texas A@M, and Providence.
Baylor could very well take a much coveted NCAA Tournament spot from any of those teams, all of which will likely be sitting on the edge of their seats for the duration of the game. They will watch because all these teams know, deep down in their hearts, that anything is possible...in the Twilight Zone.
So I should say that the Big 12 Tournament is as predictable as April showers, more predictable than May flowers, and only slightly less predictable than a Missouri loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. So it should not be surprising that I'm currently searching for evidence that I've entered the Twilight Zone. Allow me to recap.
Tournament action began on Wednesday afternoon, and things looked about normal as Nebraska ducked out in the first round. Despite being seeded higher than Baylor, was there any doubt that the Huskers would make a first round upset? Chalk that up there with predictable things that happen during the Big 12 Tournament, along with Kansas State losing their first game in demoralizing fashion*. So no one was shocked to see Baylor pull the "upset", because lets face it, they were supposed to be the better team anyway.
*Four words for you: The Pervis Pasco game.
It was business as usual the rest of the afternoon as Texas and Oklahoma State took care of business, sealing enticing match-ups in Round 2 against Kansas State and Oklahoma, respectively. So when Texas A&M began handling Texas Tech, taking an easy 48-29 halftime lead, yours truly and others let out a collective yawn and prepared ourselves for the next days action. Unfortunately for us, we missed the creepy Twilight Zone intro music that started up at about the same time.
Because after the break, the Texas Tech Mike Singletary's exploded for 58 points, including 29 consecutive points for Mr. Singletary himself that surged the suddenly dangerous Red Raiders to an 88-83 victory. It was a virtuoso performance, from a distinctly un-virtuoso type of player. In essence, it was exactly what this Tournament needed. And it didn't end there.
Thursday provided the most impressive string of upsets in Big 12 Tournament history, with 3 of the 4 higher seeds going down. The onslaught began when Kansas faced Baylor in the 11:30 a.m tipoff game. Baylor took advantage of the early start and raced out to a 17 point first half lead. Luckily, a frantic University of Kansas employee was able to coerce the drowsy Kansas team from their rooms to play the second half, and things stabilized for the Jayhawks. They stormed back and took a five point lead with a few minutes to play, all but ensuring that they would make the Semifinals for the umpteenth consecutive year. But Baylor forgot that they were supposed to collapse and fought until the final buzzer, pulling out an impressive 71-64 victory.
Kansas State (predictably) went on to lose to #5 seed Texas, trying to restore order to a tournament that threatened to go haywire at any moment. But their efforts simply were not enough to keep things on track, as Oklahoma State upended Oklahoma in a one point victory and secured a semi-final berth. Texas Tech ran out of gas in their matchup against Missouri, making the Tigers the only top seed to advance to the semi-final round.
So here we were with the conventional #9-#5 and #3-#7 matchups in Friday's games, with Baylor and Texas kicking things off and Missouri-Oklahoma State as the nightcap. Remember that no team seeded lower than #3 has ever won the Big 12 Tournament. Even this round is a significant event in a tournament that up until this year has been anything but a crapshoot.
And what happened? Well, Baylor continued its odyssey by winning against Texas and advancing to the Big 12 Title game. They will face Missouri there, a Missouri team which has everything to play for. And by everything, I mean a possible placement in Kansas City from the NCAA Tournament Selection. But Baylor, they've got a thing or two left to say to. There's nothing quite like playing a basketball game in Oklahoma City that's watched by college basketball coaches, pundits, and players all across the country. The University of Wisconsin will watch it. And Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. USC will be interested, as will Saint Mary's, Texas A@M, and Providence.
Baylor could very well take a much coveted NCAA Tournament spot from any of those teams, all of which will likely be sitting on the edge of their seats for the duration of the game. They will watch because all these teams know, deep down in their hearts, that anything is possible...in the Twilight Zone.
Friday, March 6, 2009
AROD Has an Injured Hip!!!
Just kidding. I am not, or will I ever, write any piece about an injury to Alex Rodriguez. But I do think it is time for me to make a stand on the amount of news hovering around the "fraudulent one" and others like him. Over the past few months, I have heard enough about Manny, A-Rod, and T.O. to earn a Masters degree in needless drivel. I now watch Sportscenter through clenched teeth. When will the madness end?
First its A-Rod's love life, then his decision to play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, followed by the steroids allegations (I guess steroids can be purchased over the counter in the Dominican. Maybe that explains the loyalty), which were followed by the "Cousin Reports", which all inevitably led to the announcement that Rodriguez was severely injured and would need to drain a cyst out of his hip.
All of this A-Rod coverage was unsightly and unneccesary, because really when push comes to shove, I guess that 70% of the country couldn't care less about Rodriguez.
There are four major professional sports that are all currently involved in heavy regular season or off-season activity. I would gladly listen to developing stories about the NFL hot stove, MLB Spring Training or the WBC, the possible NCAA Tournament field, or the stretch drive towards what could be the best NBA season in years. Hell, I would even be more interested in the NHL trading deadline. But instead of any of this, I see the first twenty minutes of Sportscenter divided up between Manny(who I'll get to in a moment), A-Rod, and roughly 375 ESPN commentators eager to give their analysis.
And insightful it was. I learned that the Dodger offense will be noticeably better with Manny Ramirez finally signed, and that the Yankees will lose offensive production with ARod out of their lineup. You may think I am being overly simplistic in my description here, but I'm not. I literally sat and watched a talking head(in a distinct New York accent) make the argument that the Yankees will be hurt without ARod in the lineup. And this guy is getting paid to give us this analysis? OF COURSE the Yankees will lose offense without ARod! We don't need to hear a native New Yorker wallow in self-pity on-air for ten minutes to figure this out. It's common sense.
The same goes for the Manny Ramirez signing. Is there anyone who was truly sitting on the edge of their seat during the Manny Ramirez press conference after he signed his 2 year, 45 million dollar contract? Anybody besides the hordes of ESPN employees foaming at the mouth in the press corps? He signed roughly the exact same deal that the Dodgers put on the table four months ago, at the start of free agency. And up until the signing was announced earlier this week, the negotiations were kept under closer tabs than the national terror alert ratings. And the question I have is: who cares? It was painfully obvious that Manny had no other offers months ago. The story was beaten into the ground, unearthed, and then pummelled back into the earths core.
Now, I know that major sports outlets have to cater to the largest markets in the country first. But there needs to be limits. With the economy in as bad of shape as it is, I can't fathom how ESPN and others can afford to offer around the clock coverage on two aging baseball players.
First its A-Rod's love life, then his decision to play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, followed by the steroids allegations (I guess steroids can be purchased over the counter in the Dominican. Maybe that explains the loyalty), which were followed by the "Cousin Reports", which all inevitably led to the announcement that Rodriguez was severely injured and would need to drain a cyst out of his hip.
All of this A-Rod coverage was unsightly and unneccesary, because really when push comes to shove, I guess that 70% of the country couldn't care less about Rodriguez.
There are four major professional sports that are all currently involved in heavy regular season or off-season activity. I would gladly listen to developing stories about the NFL hot stove, MLB Spring Training or the WBC, the possible NCAA Tournament field, or the stretch drive towards what could be the best NBA season in years. Hell, I would even be more interested in the NHL trading deadline. But instead of any of this, I see the first twenty minutes of Sportscenter divided up between Manny(who I'll get to in a moment), A-Rod, and roughly 375 ESPN commentators eager to give their analysis.
And insightful it was. I learned that the Dodger offense will be noticeably better with Manny Ramirez finally signed, and that the Yankees will lose offensive production with ARod out of their lineup. You may think I am being overly simplistic in my description here, but I'm not. I literally sat and watched a talking head(in a distinct New York accent) make the argument that the Yankees will be hurt without ARod in the lineup. And this guy is getting paid to give us this analysis? OF COURSE the Yankees will lose offense without ARod! We don't need to hear a native New Yorker wallow in self-pity on-air for ten minutes to figure this out. It's common sense.
The same goes for the Manny Ramirez signing. Is there anyone who was truly sitting on the edge of their seat during the Manny Ramirez press conference after he signed his 2 year, 45 million dollar contract? Anybody besides the hordes of ESPN employees foaming at the mouth in the press corps? He signed roughly the exact same deal that the Dodgers put on the table four months ago, at the start of free agency. And up until the signing was announced earlier this week, the negotiations were kept under closer tabs than the national terror alert ratings. And the question I have is: who cares? It was painfully obvious that Manny had no other offers months ago. The story was beaten into the ground, unearthed, and then pummelled back into the earths core.
Now, I know that major sports outlets have to cater to the largest markets in the country first. But there needs to be limits. With the economy in as bad of shape as it is, I can't fathom how ESPN and others can afford to offer around the clock coverage on two aging baseball players.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Extra! Extra! Big News for KU!
I've just taken a peek at The Sports Department's official crystal ball(we keep it in the back), and I've learned something amazing. The University of Kansas men's basketball team will earn a No. 1 seed to the 2009 NCAA Tournament. Hey, don't kill the messenger. It's not me with the other-wordly powers of prediction, the ability to read the unwritten trials of the future... its the crystal ball. I'm just the guy in the brown uniform who drops it delicately on your doorsteps.
In this instance the all-powerful ball was kind enough to leave me the reasoning behind its predicition, arguing(pointedly) that no one would believe me without presenting the facts. So, in no particular order, here are those reasons:
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
There is nothing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee likes better than a team on the rise. A classic example of a team that should be worried is Texas. Back to back wins over UCLA and Villanova in early December bolstered their tournament resume, but a slump in conference play leaves them hoping for a spot. Texas is 4-6 since Janunary 31st, including a three game skid against Kansas State, Missouri, and Nebraska. If the Longhorns finish 6th in the conference, where they stand right now, can that be overlooked?
On the opposite end of the spectrum lies Kansas. They've won 13 of their last 14 games, all in- conference. Their one loss during that stretch came at Missouri on a Zaire Taylor buzzer beater; the same Missouri team who the Jayhawks just grilled on Sunday by 25 points. I'd call that vindication. Kansas also beat expected No. 1 seed Oklahoma (albeit sans megastar Blake Griffin)
last week in all but clinching the Big 12 Conference title, which should be renamed in their honor any year now. If they win out and finish 15-1 in conference, they would be another Big 12 Tournament title away from serious No. 1 consideration. This would sound far-fetched and opitimistic for most teams, but that's what Kansas does. The Jayhawks have won 6 of the 12 Big 12 Conference Tournaments (the conference didn't exist until 1997). This isn't a stretch. In fact...
Some Teams in Front of Kansas Have Major Obstacles in Their Way
I'm taking a gander at the latest RPI rankings, and Kansas is listed at #7. Here is the Top 10, in order, followed by their actual AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Pittsburg(3)
2. Duke(7)
3. North Carolina(2)
4. Michigan State(8)
5.Oklahoma(4)
6. Connecticut(1)
7. Kansas(9)
8. Memphis(5)
9. Utah(NR)
10. Louisville(6)
Now, there are only four No.1 teams, and I am going to assume that these teams have the best chance at being in those spots. That is, with the obvious exception of Utah, who has no business being mentioned with these teams and is struggling to even secure a spot in the Dance, much less a No. 1 seed. Their inclusion in the top 10 in the RPI tells you all you need to know about the flaws of the system. But besides them, the other schools are at least contenders. Of the remaning nine schools, several have concerns.
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: I'm putting these two together because I don't see a situation where they both make it. Pittsburgh's dirty little secret is that they had a very pedestrian non-conference slate. Their best win came at #24 Florida State, but the rest of the slate is barren.
UConn is the closest thing to a lock at this point, having lost only two games all season. But if they suffer another loss to Pittsburgh and fall before the Big East final, their status gets much murkier. Both teams play in the tough Big East, but that is a double-edged sword. Still left on the plate for Pitt are Connecticut and #15 Marquette. I see them losing to UConn* and then beating an undermanned Marquette squad. Either way, only one of these two will get a precious No. 1 seed.
*Also at play here is the fact that three of the top six teams in the AP poll are from the Big East. With Pitt and UConn slated to face off next Sunday, one is guaranteed to lose ground in the race for a No. 1 seed. Louisville now turns into a dark horse, especially if Pitt beats UConn Sunday and Louisville secures a one seed in the conference tournament. I'll get to that.
Louisville: Despite a horrible 17 point loss to UConn and a 23 point loss to previously AWOL Notre Dame, Louisville is still very much in the hunt to win their conference. If they can do that, it would set up a potential semifinal game with injury-riddled Marquette, while Pitt and UConn would battle in the other semifinal. This tends to give creedence to my belief that only one of those two teams can secure a No. 1 seed. While I don't think Louisville is deserving, as they have the worst losses of any team in consideration(Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV), the scheduling gods may just give them a freshly stamped invitation to their conference championship game. They need to win out to be considered, and winning out would mean a victory over (potentially) UConn or Pittsburgh. I don't think Louisville is consistent enough, personally, but if they are, all the power to them. They would likely be stealing the assumed to be locked up Pitt/UConn top seed.
Memphis: Now here is a team who I feel is miscast among the big boys. Conference USA, where the Tigers call home, can proudly claim to be the 10th best conference in college basketball, just behind the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley conferences. Conference USA is abysmal, and no team playing in it should be considered for a top NCAA Tournament seed. Period. Memphis is a mere 50th in strength of schedule, and have only had one win against a team ranked in the Top 25 (Gonzaga). Even by winning their conference tournament, I will have them no higher than a No. 2 seed. They just don't deserve to be higher.
Duke/UNC: Much like Pitt/UConn, Duke and North Carolina are tightly linked. Like their Big East counterparts, Duke and North Carolina play again in Chapel Hill on March 8th. They also still have to play their conference tournament, where one squad is mathematically guaranteed to lose. The winner of Sunday's game should have the inside edge, but Duke needs the victory a bit more. I still can't imagine both teams at No. 1 come Selection Sunday. My hunch is that UNC wins this weekend and all but secures the nod for themselves, barring an unforseen turn for the worst in the conference tournament.
Michigan State: Even though I unapologetically loathe the Big 10, I can view this team without those blinders on. I can do this because I saw them dominate the Kansas Jayhawks on January 10, 75-62. It was worse than the score indicated. Michigan State also beat Big 12 bubble resters Oklahoma State and Texas. They are only ranked #8, though, and will need to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed. My hunch is that they will do just that, beating Purdue at home this Sunday and taking that momentum to a Big 10 Conference crown. If they do they should be able to snag one of the four top spots.
Oklahoma/Kansas: As of now I have three teams pegged for the four possible No. 1 seeds. They are UConn/Pitt, Duke/UNC, Michigan State, and now OU/KU. Well, if you've caught the gist of this article, its that Kansas will claim that elusive fourth no. 1 seed, meaning they will likely be able to play their first round games in Kansas City, which I shouldn't have to mention would be a distinct advantage. I think Kansas will win out the regular season and take home their conference tournament title, beating OU for the second time in the process. Granted this is all hypothetical, but if Oklahoma lose twice to Kansas, there is no way they would be considered ahead of the boys in blue. Blake Griffin is a beast, I realize, and the Big 12 tournament is being held in Oklahoma City, but Bill Self is still the coach up in Lawrence and its the same team that's lost only one conference game. Look for them to hoist another conference trophy over their heads.
If all this isn't enough to convince you that Kansas will become a No. 1 seed, surely you'll be convinced by the fact that...
I Was Just Assured By a Crystal Ball That This Would Happen
Really, the rest of the case is just semantics.
In this instance the all-powerful ball was kind enough to leave me the reasoning behind its predicition, arguing(pointedly) that no one would believe me without presenting the facts. So, in no particular order, here are those reasons:
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
There is nothing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee likes better than a team on the rise. A classic example of a team that should be worried is Texas. Back to back wins over UCLA and Villanova in early December bolstered their tournament resume, but a slump in conference play leaves them hoping for a spot. Texas is 4-6 since Janunary 31st, including a three game skid against Kansas State, Missouri, and Nebraska. If the Longhorns finish 6th in the conference, where they stand right now, can that be overlooked?
On the opposite end of the spectrum lies Kansas. They've won 13 of their last 14 games, all in- conference. Their one loss during that stretch came at Missouri on a Zaire Taylor buzzer beater; the same Missouri team who the Jayhawks just grilled on Sunday by 25 points. I'd call that vindication. Kansas also beat expected No. 1 seed Oklahoma (albeit sans megastar Blake Griffin)
last week in all but clinching the Big 12 Conference title, which should be renamed in their honor any year now. If they win out and finish 15-1 in conference, they would be another Big 12 Tournament title away from serious No. 1 consideration. This would sound far-fetched and opitimistic for most teams, but that's what Kansas does. The Jayhawks have won 6 of the 12 Big 12 Conference Tournaments (the conference didn't exist until 1997). This isn't a stretch. In fact...
Some Teams in Front of Kansas Have Major Obstacles in Their Way
I'm taking a gander at the latest RPI rankings, and Kansas is listed at #7. Here is the Top 10, in order, followed by their actual AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Pittsburg(3)
2. Duke(7)
3. North Carolina(2)
4. Michigan State(8)
5.Oklahoma(4)
6. Connecticut(1)
7. Kansas(9)
8. Memphis(5)
9. Utah(NR)
10. Louisville(6)
Now, there are only four No.1 teams, and I am going to assume that these teams have the best chance at being in those spots. That is, with the obvious exception of Utah, who has no business being mentioned with these teams and is struggling to even secure a spot in the Dance, much less a No. 1 seed. Their inclusion in the top 10 in the RPI tells you all you need to know about the flaws of the system. But besides them, the other schools are at least contenders. Of the remaning nine schools, several have concerns.
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: I'm putting these two together because I don't see a situation where they both make it. Pittsburgh's dirty little secret is that they had a very pedestrian non-conference slate. Their best win came at #24 Florida State, but the rest of the slate is barren.
UConn is the closest thing to a lock at this point, having lost only two games all season. But if they suffer another loss to Pittsburgh and fall before the Big East final, their status gets much murkier. Both teams play in the tough Big East, but that is a double-edged sword. Still left on the plate for Pitt are Connecticut and #15 Marquette. I see them losing to UConn* and then beating an undermanned Marquette squad. Either way, only one of these two will get a precious No. 1 seed.
*Also at play here is the fact that three of the top six teams in the AP poll are from the Big East. With Pitt and UConn slated to face off next Sunday, one is guaranteed to lose ground in the race for a No. 1 seed. Louisville now turns into a dark horse, especially if Pitt beats UConn Sunday and Louisville secures a one seed in the conference tournament. I'll get to that.
Louisville: Despite a horrible 17 point loss to UConn and a 23 point loss to previously AWOL Notre Dame, Louisville is still very much in the hunt to win their conference. If they can do that, it would set up a potential semifinal game with injury-riddled Marquette, while Pitt and UConn would battle in the other semifinal. This tends to give creedence to my belief that only one of those two teams can secure a No. 1 seed. While I don't think Louisville is deserving, as they have the worst losses of any team in consideration(Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV), the scheduling gods may just give them a freshly stamped invitation to their conference championship game. They need to win out to be considered, and winning out would mean a victory over (potentially) UConn or Pittsburgh. I don't think Louisville is consistent enough, personally, but if they are, all the power to them. They would likely be stealing the assumed to be locked up Pitt/UConn top seed.
Memphis: Now here is a team who I feel is miscast among the big boys. Conference USA, where the Tigers call home, can proudly claim to be the 10th best conference in college basketball, just behind the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley conferences. Conference USA is abysmal, and no team playing in it should be considered for a top NCAA Tournament seed. Period. Memphis is a mere 50th in strength of schedule, and have only had one win against a team ranked in the Top 25 (Gonzaga). Even by winning their conference tournament, I will have them no higher than a No. 2 seed. They just don't deserve to be higher.
Duke/UNC: Much like Pitt/UConn, Duke and North Carolina are tightly linked. Like their Big East counterparts, Duke and North Carolina play again in Chapel Hill on March 8th. They also still have to play their conference tournament, where one squad is mathematically guaranteed to lose. The winner of Sunday's game should have the inside edge, but Duke needs the victory a bit more. I still can't imagine both teams at No. 1 come Selection Sunday. My hunch is that UNC wins this weekend and all but secures the nod for themselves, barring an unforseen turn for the worst in the conference tournament.
Michigan State: Even though I unapologetically loathe the Big 10, I can view this team without those blinders on. I can do this because I saw them dominate the Kansas Jayhawks on January 10, 75-62. It was worse than the score indicated. Michigan State also beat Big 12 bubble resters Oklahoma State and Texas. They are only ranked #8, though, and will need to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed. My hunch is that they will do just that, beating Purdue at home this Sunday and taking that momentum to a Big 10 Conference crown. If they do they should be able to snag one of the four top spots.
Oklahoma/Kansas: As of now I have three teams pegged for the four possible No. 1 seeds. They are UConn/Pitt, Duke/UNC, Michigan State, and now OU/KU. Well, if you've caught the gist of this article, its that Kansas will claim that elusive fourth no. 1 seed, meaning they will likely be able to play their first round games in Kansas City, which I shouldn't have to mention would be a distinct advantage. I think Kansas will win out the regular season and take home their conference tournament title, beating OU for the second time in the process. Granted this is all hypothetical, but if Oklahoma lose twice to Kansas, there is no way they would be considered ahead of the boys in blue. Blake Griffin is a beast, I realize, and the Big 12 tournament is being held in Oklahoma City, but Bill Self is still the coach up in Lawrence and its the same team that's lost only one conference game. Look for them to hoist another conference trophy over their heads.
If all this isn't enough to convince you that Kansas will become a No. 1 seed, surely you'll be convinced by the fact that...
I Was Just Assured By a Crystal Ball That This Would Happen
Really, the rest of the case is just semantics.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Kansas City Sports: The Toast of the Country
I never thought I'd see the day. In my tenure as a fanatic Kansas City Royals and Chiefs supporter, I've grown used to the bad. The Chiefs have just completed a season in which they won only two games. They booted their longtime general manager, Carl Peterson, as well as head coach Herm Edwards and official doormat Gunther Cunningham, who left for the lowly Lions when it became clear he was being hung out to dry for the second time in his illustrious Chiefs career. The last time they won a playoff game was January 16, 1994, when I was 7. And they've been considered a success story in my lifetime.
The Royals, always one-upping, haven't won a playoff game since Game 7 of the 1985 World Series. In that time they've had four 100 loss season and four 90 loss seasons. They've gone through 13 managers, finished last in their division on 8 different occasions, and played 7 seasons without an owner. There hasn't been much to like about the Royals since 1985.
All of this made Saturday all the more special. The Chiefs became more relevant than they've been in a decade, trading a mere second round pick for New England Patriots standouts Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel. There's not a media outlet in the country that hasn't praised new GM Scott Pioli for effectively fleecing his old team. The Chiefs are millions under the salary cap and still hold the #3 pick in the draft. It's an enviable position; at least as enviable a position as a 2-14 team is ever going to find themselves in.
The Royals made a surprise splash on Saturday as well, signing flame-throwing reliever Juan Cruz to a two year contract, with an option for a third year. While the signing of another reliever isn't usually something to write home about, even at Royals camp, Cruz's signing represents a serious commitment to make a run at a pennant this year. GM Dayton Moore has already admitted offering second basemen Orlando Hudson over 4 million dollars before the Dodgers upped the ante, and this signing shows that he isn't messing around. Already one of the most aggressive teams this offseason, the Royals now look deep enough to stay in the AL Central race throughout the season.
Cruz is best known for his mind boggling strikeout numbers. He is blessed with a high 90's fastball that posesses great movement. He struck out 71 batters in only 51.7 innings last year, a ridiculously high rate that would seem like an abberation if he hadn't done even better the previous season. Cruz is the real deal, and Dayton Moore is quickly establishing himself as a man who can get what he wants, whether it be more cash from his owner or a fair market deal from an agent.
And this is all brand new for Kansas City sports fans born after 1985. Never in my life has there been a time where this cities' franchises were in as good of hands as they're in now. Dayton Moore and Scott Pioli are legitimate cornerstone executives who have the faith of the respective owners. In todays landscape, there isn't anything more powerful than a general manager with strong backing from their owner.
Its an exciting time for my generation of fans. While I've always been unrepentingly loyal, I have never felt so sure about the direction of the Kansas City sports scene. I'm even trying to temper my excitement about Spring Training baseball this year. Greedy as ever, I'm holding out for October.
The Royals, always one-upping, haven't won a playoff game since Game 7 of the 1985 World Series. In that time they've had four 100 loss season and four 90 loss seasons. They've gone through 13 managers, finished last in their division on 8 different occasions, and played 7 seasons without an owner. There hasn't been much to like about the Royals since 1985.
All of this made Saturday all the more special. The Chiefs became more relevant than they've been in a decade, trading a mere second round pick for New England Patriots standouts Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel. There's not a media outlet in the country that hasn't praised new GM Scott Pioli for effectively fleecing his old team. The Chiefs are millions under the salary cap and still hold the #3 pick in the draft. It's an enviable position; at least as enviable a position as a 2-14 team is ever going to find themselves in.
The Royals made a surprise splash on Saturday as well, signing flame-throwing reliever Juan Cruz to a two year contract, with an option for a third year. While the signing of another reliever isn't usually something to write home about, even at Royals camp, Cruz's signing represents a serious commitment to make a run at a pennant this year. GM Dayton Moore has already admitted offering second basemen Orlando Hudson over 4 million dollars before the Dodgers upped the ante, and this signing shows that he isn't messing around. Already one of the most aggressive teams this offseason, the Royals now look deep enough to stay in the AL Central race throughout the season.
Cruz is best known for his mind boggling strikeout numbers. He is blessed with a high 90's fastball that posesses great movement. He struck out 71 batters in only 51.7 innings last year, a ridiculously high rate that would seem like an abberation if he hadn't done even better the previous season. Cruz is the real deal, and Dayton Moore is quickly establishing himself as a man who can get what he wants, whether it be more cash from his owner or a fair market deal from an agent.
And this is all brand new for Kansas City sports fans born after 1985. Never in my life has there been a time where this cities' franchises were in as good of hands as they're in now. Dayton Moore and Scott Pioli are legitimate cornerstone executives who have the faith of the respective owners. In todays landscape, there isn't anything more powerful than a general manager with strong backing from their owner.
Its an exciting time for my generation of fans. While I've always been unrepentingly loyal, I have never felt so sure about the direction of the Kansas City sports scene. I'm even trying to temper my excitement about Spring Training baseball this year. Greedy as ever, I'm holding out for October.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Royals Season Underway (Technically)
Well its only spring training, but on the other hand, its SPRING TRAINING! Baseball is officially back, as the Royals hosted the Texas Rangers today in Surprise, Arizona. As for the results, they were a mixed bag. Being who I am, I'll start with the positives.
Billy Butler hit a home run in his first at bat, and ripped a single later in the game. He started at first and made a couple plays, a great sign early in camp. Newly acquired Mike Jacobs hit a three-run jack in the third inning, showing off the power that brought him here. Coco Crisp singled to lead off the game, Tony Pena Jr. actually took a walk, and light-hitting outfielder Mitch Maier hit a bomb in the ninth inning. I was more than happy to see them score 7 runs.
Unfortunately, the Rangers scored 12. Starting pitcher Horacio Ramirez, considered a likely candidate for the starting rotation, struck out the first batter he faced before getting shelled for 7 hits and 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning. To his credit, Ramirez was hindered by a heinous Mark Teahen error which rendered 3 of the runs unearned. This, the same Mark Teahen who was making his professional debut as a second basemen. It was the first of two errors on Teahen, who also hit into two double plays. Things did not go so well for Teahen.
Brandon Duckworth gave up back to back home runs, which he promptly redeemed himself for by surrending a mere triple to the next batter, Hank Blalock. The pitching staff gave up 20 hits. And Willie Bloomquist started in right field.
Besides that, I was just happy to have baseball back, however I could get it.
Billy Butler hit a home run in his first at bat, and ripped a single later in the game. He started at first and made a couple plays, a great sign early in camp. Newly acquired Mike Jacobs hit a three-run jack in the third inning, showing off the power that brought him here. Coco Crisp singled to lead off the game, Tony Pena Jr. actually took a walk, and light-hitting outfielder Mitch Maier hit a bomb in the ninth inning. I was more than happy to see them score 7 runs.
Unfortunately, the Rangers scored 12. Starting pitcher Horacio Ramirez, considered a likely candidate for the starting rotation, struck out the first batter he faced before getting shelled for 7 hits and 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning. To his credit, Ramirez was hindered by a heinous Mark Teahen error which rendered 3 of the runs unearned. This, the same Mark Teahen who was making his professional debut as a second basemen. It was the first of two errors on Teahen, who also hit into two double plays. Things did not go so well for Teahen.
Brandon Duckworth gave up back to back home runs, which he promptly redeemed himself for by surrending a mere triple to the next batter, Hank Blalock. The pitching staff gave up 20 hits. And Willie Bloomquist started in right field.
Besides that, I was just happy to have baseball back, however I could get it.
Monday, February 23, 2009
KU-OU Loses Importance Without Griffin
Count me among those who wishes Blake Griffin was playing tonight against Kansas. This was supposed to be a battle of Big 12 giants fighting for the claim of best team in the conference. Oklahoma, a projected #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, should have been the greatest test of the season for the Jayhawks. And they still might be. It will be interesting to see how Willie Warren responds to being the guy, and one could make a convincing argument that playing without Griffin will actually be good for OU.
The same cannot be said for Kansas. They are being robbed of a chance to go up against the premier post player in the country, on the road no less. Cole Aldrich in particular could have benefited greatly in testing his skills against a sure-fire All American in Griffin. The matchup between Griffin and Aldrich would have been a classic case of unstoppable force meets immovable object, the Big 12's best offensive player against its best defensive force.
It also would have been a great learning experience for a team that lost its only two non-conference road games by a combined 30 points, to Arizona and Michigan State. In fact, Kansas has only played 8 road games this season, compared to 16 home games. Their three neutral court games, at the Sprint Center in downtown Kansas City, were de facto home games that their opponents (Syracuse, Washington, UMass) traveled halfway across the country for.
This would have been an excellent chance to match up against elite competition on the road. Now, the dynamics of the game have shifted dramatically. Instead of the pressure being on Oklahoma to protect their home court, it will fall directly on the shoulders of the Jayhawks to beat the Blake-Griffin less Sooners and grab sole claim of first place in the Big 12. Even without Griffin, OU is a dangerous team capable of pulling off victories, especially at home. Coming off a loss to a previously reeling Texas team, they will be eager to show their worth against the best team from the Big 12 North. While Kansas loses the opportunity to play against the best player in the country, they will still need to bring their best to pull out a victory.
The same cannot be said for Kansas. They are being robbed of a chance to go up against the premier post player in the country, on the road no less. Cole Aldrich in particular could have benefited greatly in testing his skills against a sure-fire All American in Griffin. The matchup between Griffin and Aldrich would have been a classic case of unstoppable force meets immovable object, the Big 12's best offensive player against its best defensive force.
It also would have been a great learning experience for a team that lost its only two non-conference road games by a combined 30 points, to Arizona and Michigan State. In fact, Kansas has only played 8 road games this season, compared to 16 home games. Their three neutral court games, at the Sprint Center in downtown Kansas City, were de facto home games that their opponents (Syracuse, Washington, UMass) traveled halfway across the country for.
This would have been an excellent chance to match up against elite competition on the road. Now, the dynamics of the game have shifted dramatically. Instead of the pressure being on Oklahoma to protect their home court, it will fall directly on the shoulders of the Jayhawks to beat the Blake-Griffin less Sooners and grab sole claim of first place in the Big 12. Even without Griffin, OU is a dangerous team capable of pulling off victories, especially at home. Coming off a loss to a previously reeling Texas team, they will be eager to show their worth against the best team from the Big 12 North. While Kansas loses the opportunity to play against the best player in the country, they will still need to bring their best to pull out a victory.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Royals Will Contend in '09
I come back this afternoon to deliver the last of my three Royals predictions for 2009. With this prediction, I pack a blog which gets down to the essence of why this year feels different for the Royals faithful.
Prediction #3: The Royals will win at least 83 games this year, climbing above .500 for the first times since 2003.
Hope is a wonderful thing. And there is no better for a Royals fan time to be hopeful than during the first fleeting weeks of Spring Training. These are the glory days, before injuries inevitably derail the perfect lineup, before the temperature hits triple digits, and before one can ever fully grasp the horrible repercussions of the position battle of the century.
But this year, spring training has a completely different vibe. There is a clearly established core of players that any major league club would gladly take off our hands. Meche, Greinke, Gordon, Aviles, Soria, DeJesus, Crisp, Guillen...even less heralded guys have a legitimate chance to make something of themselves this year. I'm looking at you, Butler, Jacobs, Davies, and Hochevar.
Those eight players (and potentially the latter four) are a better core group than any they've had in a decade. Billy Butler and Luke Hochevar are in real danger of beginning the season in the minor leagues. That is astounding to me. Two years ago, a prospect of Butler's potential would have been forced up to the big leagues out of necessity. Actually, two years ago, Butler was rushed up as a rosy-cheeked twenty one year old. I know hindsight is 20/20, but foresight isn't so blurry either. He simply was not ready mentally.
Luke Hochever is an interesting story as well. A former no. 1 overall pick, Hochevar was supposed to be proof that the Royals were done being doormats and were going to start making draft picks based on talent instead of salary demands. And it all seemed like peaches and cream. Hochevar signed a Major League contract, and began his career as the Royals Next Great Hope. It was all about hope back then.
At the end of 2007's 93 loss campaign, Hochevar made his first appearance in the big leagues. Brian Bannister and Ryan Braun had been shelled through six innings, and the Royals were down 11-2. A noticably juiced A-Rod had already slammed two home runs, and the Royals were just hoping to make it out of the game in one piece. While it was an underwhelming moment to make a big debut, Hochevar made the most of it, going three solid innings and allowing no runs.
So he began the next season in the rotation, and there was a lot of reason for hope. But it quickly faded away as Hochevar regressed, going 6-12 with a 5.51 ERA in an injury shortened season. Now, his rotation spot is in doubt, and he will be fighting for a spot along with Bannister, Horacio Ramirez, and Kyle Davies. And this, perhaps, is the best sign I've seen in the Royals development into a winning organization. Unlike in years past, Hochevar will have to earn his spot on the club, will have to beat out another qualified candidate for the job. And so I give a cheers to the new Royals spring training environment, where even a #1 overall pick has to work hard, perform to expectations, and hope.
Prediction #3: The Royals will win at least 83 games this year, climbing above .500 for the first times since 2003.
Hope is a wonderful thing. And there is no better for a Royals fan time to be hopeful than during the first fleeting weeks of Spring Training. These are the glory days, before injuries inevitably derail the perfect lineup, before the temperature hits triple digits, and before one can ever fully grasp the horrible repercussions of the position battle of the century.
But this year, spring training has a completely different vibe. There is a clearly established core of players that any major league club would gladly take off our hands. Meche, Greinke, Gordon, Aviles, Soria, DeJesus, Crisp, Guillen...even less heralded guys have a legitimate chance to make something of themselves this year. I'm looking at you, Butler, Jacobs, Davies, and Hochevar.
Those eight players (and potentially the latter four) are a better core group than any they've had in a decade. Billy Butler and Luke Hochevar are in real danger of beginning the season in the minor leagues. That is astounding to me. Two years ago, a prospect of Butler's potential would have been forced up to the big leagues out of necessity. Actually, two years ago, Butler was rushed up as a rosy-cheeked twenty one year old. I know hindsight is 20/20, but foresight isn't so blurry either. He simply was not ready mentally.
Luke Hochever is an interesting story as well. A former no. 1 overall pick, Hochevar was supposed to be proof that the Royals were done being doormats and were going to start making draft picks based on talent instead of salary demands. And it all seemed like peaches and cream. Hochevar signed a Major League contract, and began his career as the Royals Next Great Hope. It was all about hope back then.
At the end of 2007's 93 loss campaign, Hochevar made his first appearance in the big leagues. Brian Bannister and Ryan Braun had been shelled through six innings, and the Royals were down 11-2. A noticably juiced A-Rod had already slammed two home runs, and the Royals were just hoping to make it out of the game in one piece. While it was an underwhelming moment to make a big debut, Hochevar made the most of it, going three solid innings and allowing no runs.
So he began the next season in the rotation, and there was a lot of reason for hope. But it quickly faded away as Hochevar regressed, going 6-12 with a 5.51 ERA in an injury shortened season. Now, his rotation spot is in doubt, and he will be fighting for a spot along with Bannister, Horacio Ramirez, and Kyle Davies. And this, perhaps, is the best sign I've seen in the Royals development into a winning organization. Unlike in years past, Hochevar will have to earn his spot on the club, will have to beat out another qualified candidate for the job. And so I give a cheers to the new Royals spring training environment, where even a #1 overall pick has to work hard, perform to expectations, and hope.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Wild Royals Predictions: Phase 2
It's time for phase 2 of my offical 2009 Royals Predictions. Remember, that all predictions come packaged and delivered with a Paul Thompson 100% guarantee. Batteries sold seperately.
Prediction #2: The Royals will have three or more representatives at this years All-Star game.
I've already outlined the cases for Alex Gordon and Billy Butler in the first part of this series, and that was the hard part. Assuming that one of those two makes the cut, albeit a large leap of faith, I only need to two more Royals to make the squad to fulfill my prediction of three on the AL team. Those two will almost assuredly come from the following group:
Joakim Soria: Kansas City's 2008 all-star, Soria is the closest thing to a lock on the team. A bona fide star closer, Soria posted a 1.60 ERA last season with 66 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings pitched. His 42 saves last year left him second in the American League behind record-setting former Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez. With Rodriguez now in a Mets uniform, Soria could easily step up and become the best closer in the league. Barring a serious injury, Soria will be at the game.
Zack Greinke: The recently inked 38 million dollar man has a lot to prove this season. First and foremost, he needs to prove that last year was no fluke. While widely considered one of the best young arms in the game, Greinke has really only had two productive seasons as a starter, one of which came in his rookie campaign as a 20 year old. Now 25, Greinke is blossoming into the pitcher we all knew he could be. He posted a 3.47 ERA last year and recorded 183 strikeouts. Another year in the same range should give Greinke the street cred he deserves. I see Greinke winning 15-17 games this year behind a much improved offense. Because his numbers are already superb, the few extra victories should be enough to catch the attention of the east and west coast media, even if it is only in speculating when the Royals will trade him to their teams.
Gil Meche: Now here is a guy who deserved to be an all-star in each of the past two seasons. He posted stellar ERA's in both years but was (seriously) hindered by his run support, finishing 97th(3.92 runs a game to back him up) and 79th(4.42) in the league in '07 and '08. It's refreshing to know he was still rewarded in 2007 but it can be argued his better year was 2008. While he had a bit higher ERA, he also struck out more batters and had more victories. I was also very impressed with his ability to bounce back from the worst month of his Royals career and have a stellar season. Meche was 1-4 with a 7.22 ERA last April yet was still able to turn in a great year. At this point it is clear that his signing was a home run, and he deserves to be treated like the staff leader that he is. If Greinke is not recognized this year, then Meche almost certainly will be.
I fell that I've discussed five players now that have legitimate chances at making the squad in this summer's all-star game. I haven't even mentioned newcomers Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp, or last years breakout star Mike Aviles. A shortstop, Aviles has a real chance to make some noise if he continues to produce as he did last season.
So there are my candidates for all-star glory. Stay tuned for the last part of my Royals predictions, which could very well concern the teams overall record this season. Is there any doubt that I'm optimistic?
Prediction #2: The Royals will have three or more representatives at this years All-Star game.
I've already outlined the cases for Alex Gordon and Billy Butler in the first part of this series, and that was the hard part. Assuming that one of those two makes the cut, albeit a large leap of faith, I only need to two more Royals to make the squad to fulfill my prediction of three on the AL team. Those two will almost assuredly come from the following group:
Joakim Soria: Kansas City's 2008 all-star, Soria is the closest thing to a lock on the team. A bona fide star closer, Soria posted a 1.60 ERA last season with 66 strikeouts in 67 1/3 innings pitched. His 42 saves last year left him second in the American League behind record-setting former Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez. With Rodriguez now in a Mets uniform, Soria could easily step up and become the best closer in the league. Barring a serious injury, Soria will be at the game.
Zack Greinke: The recently inked 38 million dollar man has a lot to prove this season. First and foremost, he needs to prove that last year was no fluke. While widely considered one of the best young arms in the game, Greinke has really only had two productive seasons as a starter, one of which came in his rookie campaign as a 20 year old. Now 25, Greinke is blossoming into the pitcher we all knew he could be. He posted a 3.47 ERA last year and recorded 183 strikeouts. Another year in the same range should give Greinke the street cred he deserves. I see Greinke winning 15-17 games this year behind a much improved offense. Because his numbers are already superb, the few extra victories should be enough to catch the attention of the east and west coast media, even if it is only in speculating when the Royals will trade him to their teams.
Gil Meche: Now here is a guy who deserved to be an all-star in each of the past two seasons. He posted stellar ERA's in both years but was (seriously) hindered by his run support, finishing 97th(3.92 runs a game to back him up) and 79th(4.42) in the league in '07 and '08. It's refreshing to know he was still rewarded in 2007 but it can be argued his better year was 2008. While he had a bit higher ERA, he also struck out more batters and had more victories. I was also very impressed with his ability to bounce back from the worst month of his Royals career and have a stellar season. Meche was 1-4 with a 7.22 ERA last April yet was still able to turn in a great year. At this point it is clear that his signing was a home run, and he deserves to be treated like the staff leader that he is. If Greinke is not recognized this year, then Meche almost certainly will be.
I fell that I've discussed five players now that have legitimate chances at making the squad in this summer's all-star game. I haven't even mentioned newcomers Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp, or last years breakout star Mike Aviles. A shortstop, Aviles has a real chance to make some noise if he continues to produce as he did last season.
So there are my candidates for all-star glory. Stay tuned for the last part of my Royals predictions, which could very well concern the teams overall record this season. Is there any doubt that I'm optimistic?
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Wild Royals Predictions I'll be Sure to Regret
Groundhogs predict weather, the value of college football's finest players plummet and skyrocket without playing a down, and I make my annual Spring Training Royals Predictions. Ah, I love this time of year.
Every mid-Februrary, Spring Training rolls around and the part of my brain in charge of memory short circuits. Nothing the Kansas City Royals have done in the previous 365 days has any power to temper my excitement for the upcoming season. Their lousy play is ultimately replaced with the hope of another opportunity to make things right. I'm THAT guy. Alas, this unwavering optimism even led me to believe in the unforgettable "long names, veterans, and defense" era, featuring Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Tony Graffanino, respectively. To be fair, that team almost avoided losing 100 games. Please, I urge you to check that link. That team was so bad(Our All-Star that year, Mark Redman, posted a 5.71 ERA), I think you can make an argument for Buddy Bell as Manager of the Year.
Let that be a warning to everyone (me) about setting the bar a couple of notches high. But I also have to say, for traditions sake, that this year feels different.
So here is the first(of three) Offical 2009 Royals Predictions, to be released throughout this week. Naturally, these predictions come packaged with a Paul Thompson 100% guarantee:
Prediction #1: Alex Gordon or Billy Butler will be an All-Star.
This was too tough a decision for me to call, because I think both of these guys are capable of becoming All-Stars this year. But being so early in the year, and especially with Butler entrenched in the five-man DH/1B Battle Royale, I thought I would take the (relatively) safe pick and just predict that one of the two will make it.
Both players are coming off underrated second halves to last season after stumbling under enormous expectations. With Gordon, the path to star caliber is slightly clearer. He posted an on base percentage of .392 in the second half of last year, and slammed 13 doubles in only 41 games. Averaged out over a full 162 game slate, that would mean 52 doubles for Gordon. While that may be tough to reach, 40 two-baggers is definitely within his grasp. Keep in mind also that although Gordon is entering his third season in the majors, it is only his fourth professional season. That means he only played one year of minor league ball, virtually nothing in today's game. Gordon is also helped by the lack of other options at third base. Miguel Cabrera's switch to first base last season left a wide gap between de facto #1 and #2 AL third basemen, Alex Rodriguez and Evan Longoria. Gordon could be that third guy with a faster start in 2009.
Butler's case is a bit different. As mentioned above, he is not even guaranteed to start the season on the big league club. He still has options, which in a crowded position battle is a detriment. Especially when the people he's up against would have to be released outright if they don't make the cut. But the other guys he's up against aren't hitting prodigies like Billy Butler.
Butler has done nothing but demolish minor league pitching. He bats .336 with a .416 on base percentage in the minors, and has hit 73 home runs and 333 RBI's in his 395 games on the farm. But really, that in itself has been the problem with Butler. He can't stop getting demoted. Whether its attitude or performance, Butler has not been able to stay productive and in the Royals lineup. This winter, he has slimmed down considerably, and looks ready to devote himself fully to becoming the baseball player he's supposed to be. Look for him to mirror his second half (.305 BA, 9 HR's, 36 RBI's in 57 games) as opposed to his first (.249 BA 2 HR's, 19 RBI's in 67 games). He will not start off slow this year as he did in 2008. I guarantee it.
Every mid-Februrary, Spring Training rolls around and the part of my brain in charge of memory short circuits. Nothing the Kansas City Royals have done in the previous 365 days has any power to temper my excitement for the upcoming season. Their lousy play is ultimately replaced with the hope of another opportunity to make things right. I'm THAT guy. Alas, this unwavering optimism even led me to believe in the unforgettable "long names, veterans, and defense" era, featuring Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Tony Graffanino, respectively. To be fair, that team almost avoided losing 100 games. Please, I urge you to check that link. That team was so bad(Our All-Star that year, Mark Redman, posted a 5.71 ERA), I think you can make an argument for Buddy Bell as Manager of the Year.
Let that be a warning to everyone (me) about setting the bar a couple of notches high. But I also have to say, for traditions sake, that this year feels different.
So here is the first(of three) Offical 2009 Royals Predictions, to be released throughout this week. Naturally, these predictions come packaged with a Paul Thompson 100% guarantee:
Prediction #1: Alex Gordon or Billy Butler will be an All-Star.
This was too tough a decision for me to call, because I think both of these guys are capable of becoming All-Stars this year. But being so early in the year, and especially with Butler entrenched in the five-man DH/1B Battle Royale, I thought I would take the (relatively) safe pick and just predict that one of the two will make it.
Both players are coming off underrated second halves to last season after stumbling under enormous expectations. With Gordon, the path to star caliber is slightly clearer. He posted an on base percentage of .392 in the second half of last year, and slammed 13 doubles in only 41 games. Averaged out over a full 162 game slate, that would mean 52 doubles for Gordon. While that may be tough to reach, 40 two-baggers is definitely within his grasp. Keep in mind also that although Gordon is entering his third season in the majors, it is only his fourth professional season. That means he only played one year of minor league ball, virtually nothing in today's game. Gordon is also helped by the lack of other options at third base. Miguel Cabrera's switch to first base last season left a wide gap between de facto #1 and #2 AL third basemen, Alex Rodriguez and Evan Longoria. Gordon could be that third guy with a faster start in 2009.
Butler's case is a bit different. As mentioned above, he is not even guaranteed to start the season on the big league club. He still has options, which in a crowded position battle is a detriment. Especially when the people he's up against would have to be released outright if they don't make the cut. But the other guys he's up against aren't hitting prodigies like Billy Butler.
Butler has done nothing but demolish minor league pitching. He bats .336 with a .416 on base percentage in the minors, and has hit 73 home runs and 333 RBI's in his 395 games on the farm. But really, that in itself has been the problem with Butler. He can't stop getting demoted. Whether its attitude or performance, Butler has not been able to stay productive and in the Royals lineup. This winter, he has slimmed down considerably, and looks ready to devote himself fully to becoming the baseball player he's supposed to be. Look for him to mirror his second half (.305 BA, 9 HR's, 36 RBI's in 57 games) as opposed to his first (.249 BA 2 HR's, 19 RBI's in 67 games). He will not start off slow this year as he did in 2008. I guarantee it.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
KU-K-State: I Thought This Was a Down Year
Well, its that time again. The time of the year when Kansas University inevitably blows into Kansas State's Bramlage Coliseum and ruthlessly crushes them in front of all their friends, family, and fans. Or at least that was the story for the nearly three decades prior to the arrivals of "Batman" Beasley and "Robin" Walker last year. But that was supposed to be a shot in the dark, a one-hit wonder whose rightful place was in the dregs of society, or in this case the bottom of the Big 12 Conference.
And everything started out about right. The Wildcats fell back to earth, struggling through an uninspiring non-conference slate even before their four game losing streak to open up conference play. And it wasn't just any losing streak, mind you. I'm talking four straight losses by an average of 16 points per game, a streak that included a 22 point loss at Nebraska and an 18 point drubbing at home against Baylor. They had not just come back down to earth, they'd gone straight on through to the molten hot core.
But somewhere in the there, the young Wildcats forgot that they were supposed to roll over and die, forgot that they belonged at the bottom of the Big 12. They've reeled off six straight victories coming into today's game, capped off by a demolition of Texas Tech this past Wednesday. Kansas State is now 17-7 overall, 6-4 in conference and a legitimate contender to make the NCAA Tournament field. But don't take my word for it. ESPN uber-expert Joe Lunardi has K-State pegged as an 11 seed in his latest bracket projection.
All of this fascinates me. It fascinates me because I think this team, which as recently as January 23rd was dead last in the conference (tied with lowly Colorado), can actually beat Kansas today and protect their home floor for the second consecutive year. While the feat doesn't seem that impressive at first glance, it signifies a major leap for a program that opened Bramlage Coliseum with a depressing 24 consecutive losses to their in-state "rivals".
Don't get me wrong. A lot needs to go right today for Kansas State to pull this game out. Sherron Collins likely needs to have another off-shooting day. The Morris twins need to keep on the invisibility cloak they shared for last weeks game against Missouri. But most importantly, the Cats need to utilize their home-court advantage with an early run. If they can put together 10 consecutive points at any time in the first half, they will take this game. I never thought I would say this, but I don't think the young Jayhawks can overcome an early deficit in the bedlam of Bramlage Coliseum. Now try saying that without feeling crazy.
And everything started out about right. The Wildcats fell back to earth, struggling through an uninspiring non-conference slate even before their four game losing streak to open up conference play. And it wasn't just any losing streak, mind you. I'm talking four straight losses by an average of 16 points per game, a streak that included a 22 point loss at Nebraska and an 18 point drubbing at home against Baylor. They had not just come back down to earth, they'd gone straight on through to the molten hot core.
But somewhere in the there, the young Wildcats forgot that they were supposed to roll over and die, forgot that they belonged at the bottom of the Big 12. They've reeled off six straight victories coming into today's game, capped off by a demolition of Texas Tech this past Wednesday. Kansas State is now 17-7 overall, 6-4 in conference and a legitimate contender to make the NCAA Tournament field. But don't take my word for it. ESPN uber-expert Joe Lunardi has K-State pegged as an 11 seed in his latest bracket projection.
All of this fascinates me. It fascinates me because I think this team, which as recently as January 23rd was dead last in the conference (tied with lowly Colorado), can actually beat Kansas today and protect their home floor for the second consecutive year. While the feat doesn't seem that impressive at first glance, it signifies a major leap for a program that opened Bramlage Coliseum with a depressing 24 consecutive losses to their in-state "rivals".
Don't get me wrong. A lot needs to go right today for Kansas State to pull this game out. Sherron Collins likely needs to have another off-shooting day. The Morris twins need to keep on the invisibility cloak they shared for last weeks game against Missouri. But most importantly, the Cats need to utilize their home-court advantage with an early run. If they can put together 10 consecutive points at any time in the first half, they will take this game. I never thought I would say this, but I don't think the young Jayhawks can overcome an early deficit in the bedlam of Bramlage Coliseum. Now try saying that without feeling crazy.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Give Glass Credit for Greinke Deal
It looks like Dayton Moore and Dan Glass decided their offseason was not quite done yet. Recently, The Royals announced that budding star Zack Greinke has been signed to a four year contract extension, for a reported 38 million dollars. In signing Greinke, the Royals have bought out two of his free agency years, a feat few expected as Greinke trade rumors swirled throughout the offseason.
It is almost impossible to explain how important this signing is for the Royals organization. Only months from the signing of stud closer Joakim Soria to a three year (with three option years) contract extension, the Greinke deal represents a new era of management for the organization. There was a time when extensions for hot Royals prospects were as likely as a meteor shower raining down on the K.
Consider the cases of Kevin Appier, Carlos Beltran, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, and Raul Ibanez. All were players whose great productivity all but ensured a one-way ticket out of town. During much of that time, there was no owner to give final say-so on a large, guaranteed contract. Thus large, guaranteed contracts were non-existent, their void filled with large, depressing, hope crushing trades.
In 2000, David Glass bought the Royals for $96 million. In sports ownership terms, this was a purchase from the 75% off rack at
His only major signing during this period was of Mike Sweeney, the slugging first baseman with a golden reputation around town. This virtually signaled the end for emerging super-duper star Carlos Beltran, who was eventually traded in midseason 2004 for a bag of potatoes and some eye black. Of course, Sweeney was almost immediately incapacitated by a nagging, well, everything. During the course of his 5 year, 55 million dollar contract, he never played more than 122 games, bottoming out with a combined 134 games between 2006-2007.
Rookie of the Year Angel Berroa flamed out tremendously. The can’t miss shortstop acquired in the Dye trade, Neifi Perez, proved to be among the least-liked Royals during his tumultuous time here. All-Everything prospect Alex Gordon developed more slowly than expected, and hitting machine Billy Butler stalled when faced with major league pitching. And, well, this seemed about right for the Royals.
But then something happened. Amid a disappointing 2008 season, the Royals announced that they had signed phenom Joakim Soria to an extension, a deal that would keep him in a Royals uniform for the foreseeable future. While having Soria signed was wonderful, it was the philosophical shift in management’s thinking which really got me excited.
It got me excited because for the first time in years it allowed me to think about a time and place where the Greinke signing was possible, where I could grow attached to my favorite players and envision them in Royals gear for years to come. And today, it has happened. Zack Greinke has forfeited a chance at mega-millions in free agency to stay with the Kansas City Royals. Fans should rejoice, should thank Zack Greinke for staying loyal, should thank GM Dayton Moore for convincing our best prospect in years that the Royals can contend. But most of all, fans should thank owner David Glass for doing what it takes to build a winner. He, more than anyone, deserves credit for making us believe again. Congratulations, Mr. Glass.
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