Extra! Extra! Big News for KU!

I've just taken a peek at The Sports Department's official crystal ball(we keep it in the back), and I've learned something amazing. The University of Kansas men's basketball team will earn a No. 1 seed to the 2009 NCAA Tournament. Hey, don't kill the messenger. It's not me with the other-wordly powers of prediction, the ability to read the unwritten trials of the future... its the crystal ball. I'm just the guy in the brown uniform who drops it delicately on your doorsteps.

In this instance the all-powerful ball was kind enough to leave me the reasoning behind its predicition, arguing(pointedly) that no one would believe me without presenting the facts. So, in no particular order, here are those reasons:

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

There is nothing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee likes better than a team on the rise. A classic example of a team that should be worried is Texas. Back to back wins over UCLA and Villanova in early December bolstered their tournament resume, but a slump in conference play leaves them hoping for a spot. Texas is 4-6 since Janunary 31st, including a three game skid against Kansas State, Missouri, and Nebraska. If the Longhorns finish 6th in the conference, where they stand right now, can that be overlooked?

On the opposite end of the spectrum lies Kansas. They've won 13 of their last 14 games, all in- conference. Their one loss during that stretch came at Missouri on a Zaire Taylor buzzer beater; the same Missouri team who the Jayhawks just grilled on Sunday by 25 points. I'd call that vindication. Kansas also beat expected No. 1 seed Oklahoma (albeit sans megastar Blake Griffin)
last week in all but clinching the Big 12 Conference title, which should be renamed in their honor any year now. If they win out and finish 15-1 in conference, they would be another Big 12 Tournament title away from serious No. 1 consideration. This would sound far-fetched and opitimistic for most teams, but that's what Kansas does. The Jayhawks have won 6 of the 12 Big 12 Conference Tournaments (the conference didn't exist until 1997). This isn't a stretch. In fact...

Some Teams in Front of Kansas Have Major Obstacles in Their Way

I'm taking a gander at the latest RPI rankings, and Kansas is listed at #7. Here is the Top 10, in order, followed by their actual AP rankings in parentheses.

1. Pittsburg(3)
2. Duke(7)
3. North Carolina(2)
4. Michigan State(8)
5.Oklahoma(4)
6. Connecticut(1)
7. Kansas(9)
8. Memphis(5)
9. Utah(NR)
10. Louisville(6)

Now, there are only four No.1 teams, and I am going to assume that these teams have the best chance at being in those spots. That is, with the obvious exception of Utah, who has no business being mentioned with these teams and is struggling to even secure a spot in the Dance, much less a No. 1 seed. Their inclusion in the top 10 in the RPI tells you all you need to know about the flaws of the system. But besides them, the other schools are at least contenders. Of the remaning nine schools, several have concerns.

Pittsburgh/Connecticut: I'm putting these two together because I don't see a situation where they both make it. Pittsburgh's dirty little secret is that they had a very pedestrian non-conference slate. Their best win came at #24 Florida State, but the rest of the slate is barren.
UConn is the closest thing to a lock at this point, having lost only two games all season. But if they suffer another loss to Pittsburgh and fall before the Big East final, their status gets much murkier. Both teams play in the tough Big East, but that is a double-edged sword. Still left on the plate for Pitt are Connecticut and #15 Marquette. I see them losing to UConn* and then beating an undermanned Marquette squad. Either way, only one of these two will get a precious No. 1 seed.

*Also at play here is the fact that three of the top six teams in the AP poll are from the Big East. With Pitt and UConn slated to face off next Sunday, one is guaranteed to lose ground in the race for a No. 1 seed. Louisville now turns into a dark horse, especially if Pitt beats UConn Sunday and Louisville secures a one seed in the conference tournament. I'll get to that.

Louisville: Despite a horrible 17 point loss to UConn and a 23 point loss to previously AWOL Notre Dame, Louisville is still very much in the hunt to win their conference. If they can do that, it would set up a potential semifinal game with injury-riddled Marquette, while Pitt and UConn would battle in the other semifinal. This tends to give creedence to my belief that only one of those two teams can secure a No. 1 seed. While I don't think Louisville is deserving, as they have the worst losses of any team in consideration(Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV), the scheduling gods may just give them a freshly stamped invitation to their conference championship game. They need to win out to be considered, and winning out would mean a victory over (potentially) UConn or Pittsburgh. I don't think Louisville is consistent enough, personally, but if they are, all the power to them. They would likely be stealing the assumed to be locked up Pitt/UConn top seed.

Memphis: Now here is a team who I feel is miscast among the big boys. Conference USA, where the Tigers call home, can proudly claim to be the 10th best conference in college basketball, just behind the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley conferences. Conference USA is abysmal, and no team playing in it should be considered for a top NCAA Tournament seed. Period. Memphis is a mere 50th in strength of schedule, and have only had one win against a team ranked in the Top 25 (Gonzaga). Even by winning their conference tournament, I will have them no higher than a No. 2 seed. They just don't deserve to be higher.

Duke/UNC: Much like Pitt/UConn, Duke and North Carolina are tightly linked. Like their Big East counterparts, Duke and North Carolina play again in Chapel Hill on March 8th. They also still have to play their conference tournament, where one squad is mathematically guaranteed to lose. The winner of Sunday's game should have the inside edge, but Duke needs the victory a bit more. I still can't imagine both teams at No. 1 come Selection Sunday. My hunch is that UNC wins this weekend and all but secures the nod for themselves, barring an unforseen turn for the worst in the conference tournament.

Michigan State: Even though I unapologetically loathe the Big 10, I can view this team without those blinders on. I can do this because I saw them dominate the Kansas Jayhawks on January 10, 75-62. It was worse than the score indicated. Michigan State also beat Big 12 bubble resters Oklahoma State and Texas. They are only ranked #8, though, and will need to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed. My hunch is that they will do just that, beating Purdue at home this Sunday and taking that momentum to a Big 10 Conference crown. If they do they should be able to snag one of the four top spots.

Oklahoma/Kansas: As of now I have three teams pegged for the four possible No. 1 seeds. They are UConn/Pitt, Duke/UNC, Michigan State, and now OU/KU. Well, if you've caught the gist of this article, its that Kansas will claim that elusive fourth no. 1 seed, meaning they will likely be able to play their first round games in Kansas City, which I shouldn't have to mention would be a distinct advantage. I think Kansas will win out the regular season and take home their conference tournament title, beating OU for the second time in the process. Granted this is all hypothetical, but if Oklahoma lose twice to Kansas, there is no way they would be considered ahead of the boys in blue. Blake Griffin is a beast, I realize, and the Big 12 tournament is being held in Oklahoma City, but Bill Self is still the coach up in Lawrence and its the same team that's lost only one conference game. Look for them to hoist another conference trophy over their heads.

If all this isn't enough to convince you that Kansas will become a No. 1 seed, surely you'll be convinced by the fact that...

I Was Just Assured By a Crystal Ball That This Would Happen

Really, the rest of the case is just semantics.