Wild Royals Predictions I'll be Sure to Regret

Groundhogs predict weather, the value of college football's finest players plummet and skyrocket without playing a down, and I make my annual Spring Training Royals Predictions. Ah, I love this time of year.

Every mid-Februrary, Spring Training rolls around and the part of my brain in charge of memory short circuits. Nothing the Kansas City Royals have done in the previous 365 days has any power to temper my excitement for the upcoming season. Their lousy play is ultimately replaced with the hope of another opportunity to make things right. I'm THAT guy. Alas, this unwavering optimism even led me to believe in the unforgettable "long names, veterans, and defense" era, featuring Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Tony Graffanino, respectively. To be fair, that team almost avoided losing 100 games. Please, I urge you to check that link. That team was so bad(Our All-Star that year, Mark Redman, posted a 5.71 ERA), I think you can make an argument for Buddy Bell as Manager of the Year.

Let that be a warning to everyone (me) about setting the bar a couple of notches high. But I also have to say, for traditions sake, that this year feels different.

So here is the first(of three) Offical 2009 Royals Predictions, to be released throughout this week. Naturally, these predictions come packaged with a Paul Thompson 100% guarantee:


Prediction #1: Alex Gordon or Billy Butler will be an All-Star.

This was too tough a decision for me to call, because I think both of these guys are capable of becoming All-Stars this year. But being so early in the year, and especially with Butler entrenched in the five-man DH/1B Battle Royale, I thought I would take the (relatively) safe pick and just predict that one of the two will make it.

Both players are coming off underrated second halves to last season after stumbling under enormous expectations. With Gordon, the path to star caliber is slightly clearer. He posted an on base percentage of .392 in the second half of last year, and slammed 13 doubles in only 41 games. Averaged out over a full 162 game slate, that would mean 52 doubles for Gordon. While that may be tough to reach, 40 two-baggers is definitely within his grasp. Keep in mind also that although Gordon is entering his third season in the majors, it is only his fourth professional season. That means he only played one year of minor league ball, virtually nothing in today's game. Gordon is also helped by the lack of other options at third base. Miguel Cabrera's switch to first base last season left a wide gap between de facto #1 and #2 AL third basemen, Alex Rodriguez and Evan Longoria. Gordon could be that third guy with a faster start in 2009.

Butler's case is a bit different. As mentioned above, he is not even guaranteed to start the season on the big league club. He still has options, which in a crowded position battle is a detriment. Especially when the people he's up against would have to be released outright if they don't make the cut. But the other guys he's up against aren't hitting prodigies like Billy Butler.

Butler has done nothing but demolish minor league pitching. He bats .336 with a .416 on base percentage in the minors, and has hit 73 home runs and 333 RBI's in his 395 games on the farm. But really, that in itself has been the problem with Butler. He can't stop getting demoted. Whether its attitude or performance, Butler has not been able to stay productive and in the Royals lineup. This winter, he has slimmed down considerably, and looks ready to devote himself fully to becoming the baseball player he's supposed to be. Look for him to mirror his second half (.305 BA, 9 HR's, 36 RBI's in 57 games) as opposed to his first (.249 BA 2 HR's, 19 RBI's in 67 games). He will not start off slow this year as he did in 2008. I guarantee it.