Royals Will Contend in '09

I come back this afternoon to deliver the last of my three Royals predictions for 2009. With this prediction, I pack a blog which gets down to the essence of why this year feels different for the Royals faithful.

Prediction #3: The Royals will win at least 83 games this year, climbing above .500 for the first times since 2003.


Hope is a wonderful thing. And there is no better for a Royals fan time to be hopeful than during the first fleeting weeks of Spring Training. These are the glory days, before injuries inevitably derail the perfect lineup, before the temperature hits triple digits, and before one can ever fully grasp the horrible repercussions of the position battle of the century.

But this year, spring training has a completely different vibe. There is a clearly established core of players that any major league club would gladly take off our hands. Meche, Greinke, Gordon, Aviles, Soria, DeJesus, Crisp, Guillen...even less heralded guys have a legitimate chance to make something of themselves this year. I'm looking at you, Butler, Jacobs, Davies, and Hochevar.

Those eight players (and potentially the latter four) are a better core group than any they've had in a decade. Billy Butler and Luke Hochevar are in real danger of beginning the season in the minor leagues. That is astounding to me. Two years ago, a prospect of Butler's potential would have been forced up to the big leagues out of necessity. Actually, two years ago, Butler was rushed up as a rosy-cheeked twenty one year old. I know hindsight is 20/20, but foresight isn't so blurry either. He simply was not ready mentally.

Luke Hochever is an interesting story as well. A former no. 1 overall pick, Hochevar was supposed to be proof that the Royals were done being doormats and were going to start making draft picks based on talent instead of salary demands. And it all seemed like peaches and cream. Hochevar signed a Major League contract, and began his career as the Royals Next Great Hope. It was all about hope back then.

At the end of 2007's 93 loss campaign, Hochevar made his first appearance in the big leagues. Brian Bannister and Ryan Braun had been shelled through six innings, and the Royals were down 11-2. A noticably juiced A-Rod had already slammed two home runs, and the Royals were just hoping to make it out of the game in one piece. While it was an underwhelming moment to make a big debut, Hochevar made the most of it, going three solid innings and allowing no runs.

So he began the next season in the rotation, and there was a lot of reason for hope. But it quickly faded away as Hochevar regressed, going 6-12 with a 5.51 ERA in an injury shortened season. Now, his rotation spot is in doubt, and he will be fighting for a spot along with Bannister, Horacio Ramirez, and Kyle Davies. And this, perhaps, is the best sign I've seen in the Royals development into a winning organization. Unlike in years past, Hochevar will have to earn his spot on the club, will have to beat out another qualified candidate for the job. And so I give a cheers to the new Royals spring training environment, where even a #1 overall pick has to work hard, perform to expectations, and hope.