Kansas City Royals to Buck Trend, Go with Six-Man Rotation

Editor's note: this column was originally written for bleacherreport.com

You could call it inspired. You could call it risky. Or you could look at it like me, and just call it a bad decision. The Kansas City Royals announced on Monday that they were going against the grain by installing a six-man pitching rotation.

A rotation decision became necessary when Kyle Davies proved he was ready to return from the disabled list to continue being the worst regular starting pitcher in the major leagues. The Royals were expected to demote promising rookie Danny Duffy for Davies, a move that likely would have prompted Royals fans to reach for their torches and pitchforks.

So, in a way, the Royals saved face by announcing the six-man rotation. They weren't forced to demote Duffy, who is quickly becoming the biggest reason casual fans tune in every five, uh, six days. It also allows the Royals to limit Duffy's innings and keep his body fresh over the grind of a long season.

The same can be said for Felipe Paulino, who began the season as a reliever in Colorado before being slotted into the rotation in Kansas City. Bruce Chen is coming off an injury, so an extra day off wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

I can almost talk myself into this logic. Honestly, it looks good if you're squinting and sounds good if you're partially deaf in one ear. But then you look at the reality of the situation, and one can't help but notice that the worst pitching staff in the American League just added (arguably) the worst pitcher in the major leagues, and is now trying to spin that development as a positive.

Keep in mind that the Royals currently hold the worst ERA in the American League at 4.55. They've also given up 748 hits, or to put it another way, 45 more hits than any other team in the AL. To top it all off, the Royals simultaneously hold the league-lead for walks allowed.

Enter Kyle Davies. The last time we saw Davies was May 16, when he threw one-third of an inning of no-hit ball, while walking three batters and allowing two earned runs before leaving with an injury. Davies' early injury exit eventually led to a surprise relief appearance by Vin Mazzaro, who had been scheduled to start the next day's game. Mazzaro did not respond well to the challenge, giving up 11 hits and 14 earned runs in 2.1 innings of historically bad pitching.

So in one game, Kyle Davies went to the DL for over a month, Vin Mazzaro pitched so badly that he was demoted, and the Royals lost 19-1. That's 40 percent of the starting rotation which was lost before the fifth inning of one game.

Actually that's only 33.3 percent of the new six-man rotation, but the point holds firm. Kyle Davies' last appearance for the Royals actually led to two starting pitchers being eliminated from the rotation. Before the fifth inning. Now that has to be some sort of record.

Anyways, Davies is back now, apparently by popular demand. And while there are benefits of a six-man rotation, the fact that the decision was made to accommodate the arrival of Kyle Davies is laughable.

Davies had been atrocious in the first month and a half of the year. He recorded a 7.46 ERA in the 41 innings he pitched before his May 16 injury. And while that is a small sample size, his career in Kansas City has not been. Davies has now pitched 510.2 innings for the Royals over five seasons. In those five seasons he has posted a 5.32 ERA.

At this point, Davies should not be catered to. And his past performance simply doesn't indicate that he'll be a valuable starting pitcher for the Royals. He's just not worth making the worst starting pitching team in the American League into a six-man rotation.

And I Admit I Was Wrong

Well, there's not too much left for me to say regarding my pre-season prediction that the Royals would be a .500 team. It was wrong, disgraceful, incredibly optimistic, and potentially deranged thinking. I can admit that. And I will not even point to injuries as the cause of this destruction, because that would be what us fans refer to as a COPOUT. Instead, I will attempt to paint the Royals season through a series of brutal statistics that will illicit either tears of rage, uproarious laughter, or blatant disinterest, depending on your state of mind. Enjoy.

-Alex Gordon has 64 at-bats this season.
Total number of extra base hits: 1.
Total number of extra base-hits since 1st at-bat of the season: 0.
Yes, that's right. Alex Gordon has not recorded an extra base-hit since his first at-bat of the season. I understand that he only has 64 official at-bats, but that is actually 4 more than...

-Recently Designated For Assignment Ryan Freel, who was cut loose after a whopping 60 at-bats in a Royals uniform.
Number of extra base-hits with the Royals: 2.
Or in other words, with 4 less at-bats than Alex Gordon, Ryan Freel doubled his extra base-hit output. Just to hammer this point home, as if Gordon's Joey Gathright-like power numbers don't explain the whole story, consider the following:

Ryan Freel's line while with the Royals (AVG/OBP/SLG): .217/.319/.250

Alex Gordon's line with the Royals (AVG/OBP/SLG): .203/.329/.250

Ryan Freel's status with the Royals: DFA'd

Alex Gordon's status with the Royals: Savior


Listen, I don't want to rip on Alex Gordon here. I am an unabashed apologist for Gordon, and I still believe that he will blossom into a steady and productive regular who may make an All-Star game one day. But he is looking an awful lot like a replacement-level player right now, and these statistics show me more Joe Randa than Evan Longoria. Maybe expectations need to be lowered a little.

BONUS STATS

-David DeJesus has stolen 3 bases this season. He has been caught stealing a whopping 7 times. No one else on the team has been caught stealing more often than they've stolen a base.

-Joakim Soria has appeared in 29 games this year, and posted a 1.71 ERA. Lefty specialist John Bale has appeared in 30 games, with a 6.75 ERA.

-Royals relievers whose last names are not Soria are a combined 3-19 in save opportunities. I kid you not. Look it up.

Billy Butler's Emerging, Right?

I was looking at Billy Butler's Baseball Reference page and noticed that his number of at-bats this season, at age 23, are nearly identical to his total at-bats during his rookie campaign. Despite Billy's apparent emergence, the numbers are eerily, eerily similar.

------ -AB-runs-hits-2B--HR-RBI-BB--SO--BA----OBP--SLG---TB
2007:-329--38--96--23---8---52--27--55-.292-/.347/-.447-147

2009:-333--38--98--28---8---38--27--59-.294-/.346/-.450-150

Which stat stands out? RBI. Despite greater or equal production in nearly every offensive category, Butler has registered 14 less RBI in 2009 than in 2007. Why? I dug a little deeper.

Plate appearances with:-Bases empty-RISP-Bases loaded

Evan Longoria: -------------184 ------136 ------10

Jason Bay: -----------------187-------118-------15

Billy Butler:-----------------216-------88--------6

Billy Butler has come to the plate 32 more times with the bases empty than Evan Longoria. That’s roughly equivalent to 8 full games of hitting with no one on base. Butler has also batted with Runners in Scoring Position (RISP) 48 fewer times than Longoria, or about 12 full games less. It’s also worth noting that in the biggest RBI opportunity, with the bases loaded, Butler has had 4 fewer opportunities than Longoria and a whopping 9 fewer than Jason Bay. Bay leads the American League with 72 RBI and Longoria is 3^rd with 70 RBI.

-Butler, for what it’s worth, is tied for 5^th in the AL with 28 doubles, two off leader Brian Roberts’ 30 and one more than Longoria’s 27.

-He’s hit 17 doubles that didn’t result in an RBI, and 16 doubles in which he didn’t eventually score a run.

-7 of his 8 home runs have come with the bases empty.

Analysis: Despite a lack of home runs, Billy Butler is doing everything he should to be about a 100 RBI producer. With nearly identical production as his great rookie season, Butler is 14 RBI behind his 92 game total from 2007. Ladies and gentleman, your revamped 2009 Kansas City Royals offense!

There is Absolutely No Way This Can Get Worse

And so here we are. It's dark. It's depressing. I wouldn't see the light at the end of the tunnel with the Hubble telescope. The Royals have lost five straight games, three by the score of 12-5 (think about that), heading into the mericful off-day tonight. Gil Meche was tattooed Sunday at Kaufman stadium, giving up 9 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. It was the worst start of his career, the kind of start you'd have nightmares about. Meche will likely check under his bed, in the basement, and the closet for Albert Pujols before falling asleep for some time.

Pujols TKO'd Gil Sunday on a monstrous, now orbiting home run with the bases loaded. It wasn't much of a shock. After all, Pujols is Pujols, and the Royals are The Royals. Meche could have thrown a 117 mph slider on the outside corner and it likely would have ended up lodged into the video board. Pujols is now 4-4 with three home runs and 14 RBI's with the bases loaded this year. I don't even have the heart to mention that he played his formative years at Kansas City's own Fort Osage High School and Maple Woods Community College.

What else is there to say about this team? Position players Jose Guillen, Alex Gordon, Coco Crisp, John Buck, Mike Aviles, and Tony Pena Jr. have all spent a significant amount of time on the DL. Pitchers Doug Waechter, Robinson Tejeda, Joakim Soria, John Bale, and Sidney Ponson have done the same. The offense is anemic, the bullpen provides little to no relief, and the fielding has been abysmal. There's only one more question left to ask: can things possibly get any worse?

I don't think so. First off, players are beginning to get healthy. Soria looks to be back in action. John Buck appears close to making his comeback from back spasms. Alex Gordon is only a couple of weeks away from returning after three months off with a torn hip muscle. Mike Aviles is resuming baseball activities this week. Coco Crisp, well Coco is pretty well screwed. But the rest of the guys could be back by the end of the All-Star break, and that can't be discounted: the returns of these players likely means demotions for cotton-soft hitters Luis Hernandez, Tony Pena Jr., and/or Tug Hulett. That in itself should win us 30-40 more games in the second half.

Also, Zack Greinke still leads the league in ERA, shutouts, and complete games. Moreover, he will have the chance to hit for the first time this year tomorrow night in Houston, which means a productive bat in the lineup to replace DH(Designated Hacker)/fielding black hole Mike Jacobs.

The Royals do lead the majors with an astounding 26 triples, a stat that can seem impressive, but also one that magnifies the team's frustrating propensity for hitting warning track fly balls.

There are several other untracked statistics which the team is likely excelling as well. Ones that I feel that Royals are around the league lead in include: 1. inherited runners scored- the bullpen has an incredible knack for allowing inherited runners to score before tightening things down when their runners are in scoring position. If you don't believe me on this one, ask Kyle Davies, Zack Greinke, and Sidney Ponson. 2. line drive outs- Tug Hulett alone had three of these in Sunday's drubbing to the Cardinals. Chances are if the Royals really need a hit, they will crush a laser right at the right fielder. What I wouldn't give to see that stat. 3. taking first base on strikeouts- Nothing more needs to be said than Miguel Olivo. I've seen Olivo advance to first twice on atrocious off-speed pitches either in the dirt, way outside, or in the dirt and way outside. I'd imagine that most teams have that happen maybe twice a season, but not the Royals. No, we have the Mighty Miguel Olivo.

So, yeah, things may look irreversible. And spirits may seem unliftable. And Trey Hillman may appear to be absolutely clueless, many times over, during the exhaustive season. But MLB history says that things cannot get any worse, that the Royals cannot get blown out in any more consecutive games without becoming terrible in an entirely original, historical sense. I don't think this team is that bad. Through it all, we can take solace in the fact that no matter how deep, and no matter how long, there is always light at the end of the tunnel. Even if you can't see it with the Hubble telescope.

Shaking Things Up is Not a Long-Term Solution

Kansas City sports fans are angry. The Sprint Center is vacant. The Chiefs have yet to make their much anticipated splash in the free agent or trade market. And the Royals, well, the Royals just won't stop losing. It's quite a plight.

As it is whenever rock-bottom approaches, the fans are screaming for change. And it doesn't seem like a wild notion. The Royals have lost 5 of 6 and 12 of 16. They've dropped below .500 for the first time since opening week. They look, by all accounts, lost at the plate, totalling four runs in their last four games combined. It seems as if serious change is in order. But I say not so fast.

The Royals have already made some relatively major roster moves in the past couple of days that should eventually provide a spark for the team. First, they sent Luke Hochevar down to Omaha, a move that allows the team to transition to a four-man rotation for the next couple of weeks.

While I didn't feel Luke should have been given up on so quickly, all indications show that is not exactly the case. In fact, the demotion had more to do with the bullpen's horrendous showing in the past couple of weeks. Roman Colon takes Hochevar's spot on the roster, and figures to help patch up a bullpen with serious issues (especially after losing Robinson Tejeda). John Bale also returns to provide a solid lefty arm to a bullpen that is currently sending out the carcass of Horacio Ramirez to fill that lefty vacancy every couple of days. Mike Aviles has been demoted to the DL, a move which is becoming increasingly popular for teams looking to hide struggling regulars. So, all together we have two healthy new bullpen arms and another utilityman, the intriguing Tug Hulett. That constitutes a major shake-up in my book.

The arrival of Bale is the major addition. He will swiftly boot Ramirez from his role as a lefty specialist (finally), allowing the Royals to dismiss the faithful HoRam from the team once and for all. I'm not going to mince words here: Horacio Ramirez will be cut as soon as John Bale proves himself to be a far better option, a feat that should not be difficult to accomplish when compared with Ramirez's brutal efforts.

Once Ramirez is gone and stud closer Joakim Soria is back, the Royals will be freed up to add Hochevar to the big league squad once again. At this point, order will be restored to the universe and the Royals can once again resume winning ball games at their early-season rate.

OK, well it may not be as easy as 1-2-3, or A-B-C for that matter, but the point is that the Royals do not necessarily need to look for help outside of their own organization. People in Kansas City are overreacting to what is commonplace in a 162 game baseball season: a stretch of bad baseball. The team is currently just a game under .500 and 4 games back of division leading Detroit. Relax. If they're this close after a prolonged streak of incessant losing, then a mild winning streak will likely put them right near the division lead. Fans need to remember that this team is not as bad as they look right now, I guarantee it. The offense will eventually start scoring more than one run per game and Coco Crisp and David DeJeseus will get their batting averages up past .250. Billy Butler and Jose Guillen will hit for more power, and Alex Gordon will infuse this lineup with energy when he returns at the end of next month. All these things will happen, as long as Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman keep the faith and don't panic.

It may be difficult to see right now (as the Royals are getting one-hit by Detroit starter Edwin Jackson through 5 innings), but this team will turn it around. I just hope there are still fans piling into the new ballpark by the time it happens.

Time For Blood Tests in All Major Sports

I know what I'm about to write is considered blasphemy to major American sports. I know that the unions in charge of the NBA, NFL, MLB, and NHL consider my upcoming suggestion to be a gross invasion of privacy . I know that these unions will fight to the death to protect their inalienable right to hide the supplements being injected into their athletes bodies. I know all these things, and yet I can't help myself in spite of them. Circumstances in professional sports today have left us with no other choice: we need blood testing.

Now, I know it seems radical to ask professional athletes making millions of dollars, who are in some cases tied directly to the marketing campaigns of their respective teams (Mannywood, anyone?), and are subject to huge fines and public relations suicide if connected to performance enhancing drugs, to allow teams the privilege of ensuring they're not pumping their bodies full of testosterone, human growth hormone, anabolic steroids, and fertility drugs before signing them to lucrative, guaranteed contract extensions, but...oh wait, that's not radical at all.

The idea that Major League Baseball players are not already subject to blood tests after the swell of controversy in their sport is what's laughable. How many uber-stars need to be outted before the powers-that-be decide enough is enough? Do we need David Ortiz to Twitter that he just received his shipment of Stanozolol? Or a Youtube video of Mark McGwire injecting Jason Giambi in an Oakland A's bathroom stall? How about a thank you card from Brett Boone to Jose Canseco for the juicing tips he received?

I'm only half joking here. I mean, assume you are the owner of an MLB team. I'll offer you a purely hypothetical scenario here. You have a big-time star who is destined to become a free agent following the current season. He is having a great year and the team is in contention. You and your people meet with his agent to discuss a contract extension, and you get a lucrative ten-year contract hammered out. You are ponying up hundreds of millions of dollars to secure this one player, and are content that his drawing power and sheer numbers will be worth the investment. Several months after the ink dries on the contract, this player admits, at the coaxing of the national media, to having used steroids for several years of his career. Now, how exactly do you feel about that ten-year, guaranteed contract you've just handed out?

You're furious, right? This player has not only duped his loyal fan base, but also the fans of your team and yourself personally. He has cashed in on a guaranteed contract that will keep his family afloat for generations, while at the same time making sure to finish the deal before any allegations arose. Pretty nifty move, huh?

Well, we all know that this kind of thing would never be possible, not anymore, not after Congress and Canseco, The Rocket and The (Mitchell) Report, not after mandatory steroids testing. It's just not possible. There is too much scrutiny, and the system works. Well, tell that to Hal Steinbrenner and the New York Yankees front office, the suckers who signed Alex Rodriguez to an unprecedented 275 million dollar contract mere months before he admitted to a history of doping.

Looking back, weren't there some fishy aspects about that deal? Namely, remember back to the negotiations, when it looked like a deal would not happen due to Scott Boras' ridiculous demands. Alex Rodriguez pushed Boras out of the room and came to an agreement with the Yankees himself. That was a truly unprecedented move. Just when talks were beginning to stall, A-Rod ousted his mega-agent and brokered the deal himself? How anxious was he to get something done before the offseason? Why was he so anxious? Did Rodriguez realize his image as a "clean" player was about to go up in smoke?

Obviously, there is no certain way to answer those questions, at least not yet. But one thing we do know is that Alex Rodriguez was very aware of his juicing past during negotiations, even if others weren't. And Rodriguez seemed very eager to scrap his old contract and draw up a new one.

The truth is, it doesn't matter whether Alex Rodriguez knew of his impending demise or not. What matters is that a team is paying 275 million dollars to a tarnished star, and are on the hook for the length of the ten year deal regardless. Why shouldn't they have the right to give the man a blood test before embarking on that type of long-term investment? It makes good business sense, and any player who was clean should have no problem submitting to a simple test in order to earn that payday.

Now, the various sports' unions will have none of this. Blood testing is an invasion of privacy, or at least that is what they're sticking to. But answer me this: is blood testing any more an invasion of privacy than a tell-all book about someone's past transgressions? How about a congressional hearing in which a former trainer claims to inject you in the buttucks with a syringe-full of steroids? How's that for invasion of privacy?

In the world of Youtube, Facebook, and Twitter, there is no such thing as privacy for a professional athlete. Earning a living playing sports is a privilege, not a right of passage, and it's high time that point was hammered home. A simple drug test to help clean up American sports would be a great way for our professional sports leagues to lash out against performance enhancing drugs, and this time with some authority. Blood tests should be the least of any athlete's concerns. That is, unless they have something to hide.

A Look at my 2009 Official Royals Predictions

One month of baseball has already passed us by (where did all the days go?) and it is time to take a look at my Official Royals Predictions for 2009. These were made prior to the year and were admittedly seasoned with as much optimism as I could muster. Let's take a prediction-by-prediction look at exactly how badly my Royals blinders have been exposed so far.

Prediction No. 1: Alex Gordon or Billy Butler will be an (ahem) All-Star.

This was by far the most egregious example of my blatant homerism on this blog. What can I say?
Let's start with Alex Gordon, who went on the disabled list after two weeks and a 2 for 21 slump to begin the season. So my guess is that it's safe assume he won't be representing Major League Baseball in St. Louis this summer. While the early slump was troubling, it can be explained (somewhat) by the hip he initially injured on Opening Day. Being a gamer, Gordon attempted to play through the injury. It just didn't work out. The injury does nothing to take away from his enormous potential, but Gordon will be on the shelf until late June and can't be considered an All-star candidate (at least until 2010).
In Hindsight: Gordon will one day be a great player, but his injury makes this prediction a major failure.

Butler's case is at least slightly more compelling, if only for the recent signs of life his bat has shown. But all in all, things are not looking good. Butler began the season with on a 2 for 22 streak, not collecting his first home run until his two-dinger outburst Wednesday night against Toronto. The early slump mirrored the beginning of his 2008 season, and simultaneously shamed me (greatly) for guaranteeing that it would not happen again.

So it goes. The bright spot here is Butler's recent two-game "hot streak", which has raised his batting average from a deplorable .193 to a now reasonable .262. Still hopelessly searching for more bright spots, it's worth noting that Butler does sport a totally respectable .377 on base percentage. While he would certainly be a collossal underdog, considering he is not even on the ballot, at least he isn't out until July.
In Hindsight: This does not look good, But at least he is showing signs of life. If I'd written this post a week ago, I would literally have had nothing good to say.


Prediction No. 2: The Royals will have at least 3 representatives at this years All-Star game.

This whole prediction was essentially predicated on either Butler of Gordon catching fire in the season's first two months. Since that hasn't exactly happened (yet), things aren't looking especially rosy in that department.
But that doesn't mean that I've given up on the prediction. There are still some positives to glean from here. Zack Greinke does not even really need to be mentioned, as he is now a national media darling following his (literally) unhittable start to the season. Greinke is 5-0 with a 0.50 ERA, and leads the league in shutouts, complete games, ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Besides that he's been rather pedestrian. The early season favorite for the American League Cy Young award, I'd say it's safe to say Greinke is an All-star lock.

So let's assume that Greinke will be the Royals "automatic selection". That doesn't mean that he will be the only Royal selected. Because all-star pitchers are selected by the managers, there is at least a decent shot that another pitcher will accompany Zack to St. Louis. Gil Meche has also started the season strong, although he has only one win to show for it due to some tough luck. The other candidate remains Joakim Soria, the outstanding young closer. I called Soria an all-star lock, and he would be exactly that if his recent bout of shoulder soreness dissipates quickly. Soria has still posted 5 saves and a 1.80 ERA despite the injury, so if it is as minor as Trey Hillman says, Soria could have a great chance at a second consecutive Summer Classic appearance.

Even with Soria and Greinke, the Royals will need at least one batter to make the squad. While Butler and Gordon were the two I pegged to grab that coveted third slot, a better candidate might be 3B-2B-RF-1B Mark Teahen. Teahen is batting .320 thus far with a .414 OBP, and if you don't understand those numbers, suffice it to say they are very good. When considering that said player has manned four different positions for the team thus far, his value rises even higher. Teahen has displayed excellent opposite-field power, taking all three of his home runs the other way. If we are finally seeing the late 2006 Teahen, he could be a sleeper all-star selection. Also going Teahen's way is the fact he's actually on the ballot, which is more than my man Billy Butler can say. I think he's got at least an outside shot.
In Hindsight: The non-factors Gordon and Butler hurt the prediction, but Greinke's emergence leaves the Royals with two pretty likely candidates (along with Soria). It is entirely feasible that Meche, Teahen, or someone else joins those two. Saying that, I'll need a few breaks to nail this prediction.

Prediction No. 3: The Royals will finish over .500 in 2009, with 83 wins.

Here we are at last, with a prediction that is not only possible, but (gulp) borderline likely. The Royals are currently 12-10, and stand atop the AL Central standings. Even the most critical of Royals fans are glowing with excitement now. With a strong 1-2-3 in the rotation, the Royals seem like a good bet to compete all season long. The Central has been lacking thus far, and Kansas City has a bit of momentum as they turn into the summer months. As well as they have played, things could easily be better for the division leaders. Without even considering the blown saves Kyle Farnsworth has graced us with, the Royals would be better off if any number of the following had happened in April: Alex Gordon had not been injured, Billy Butler had played to his expectations, Joakim Soria had avoided shoulder discomfort, Jose Guillen had not partially torn a muscle in his hip, Mike Aviles had bypassed the sophomore jinx, and (this week's sign of the apocalypse) Sidney Ponson had gotten some run support. So I think its safe to hope that things may actually improve for this squad. Now, if only Billy Butler can just erupt in May...
In Hindsight: I got a little help from Nostradamus with this one. It looks like the Royals could be even better than I thought, a missed prediction I could certainly live with.