One month of baseball has already passed us by (where did all the days go?) and it is time to take a look at my Official Royals Predictions for 2009. These were made prior to the year and were admittedly seasoned with as much optimism as I could muster. Let's take a prediction-by-prediction look at exactly how badly my Royals blinders have been exposed so far.
Prediction No. 1: Alex Gordon or Billy Butler will be an (ahem) All-Star.
This was by far the most egregious example of my blatant homerism on this blog. What can I say?
Let's start with Alex Gordon, who went on the disabled list after two weeks and a 2 for 21 slump to begin the season. So my guess is that it's safe assume he won't be representing Major League Baseball in St. Louis this summer. While the early slump was troubling, it can be explained (somewhat) by the hip he initially injured on Opening Day. Being a gamer, Gordon attempted to play through the injury. It just didn't work out. The injury does nothing to take away from his enormous potential, but Gordon will be on the shelf until late June and can't be considered an All-star candidate (at least until 2010).
In Hindsight: Gordon will one day be a great player, but his injury makes this prediction a major failure.
Butler's case is at least slightly more compelling, if only for the recent signs of life his bat has shown. But all in all, things are not looking good. Butler began the season with on a 2 for 22 streak, not collecting his first home run until his two-dinger outburst Wednesday night against Toronto. The early slump mirrored the beginning of his 2008 season, and simultaneously shamed me (greatly) for guaranteeing that it would not happen again.
So it goes. The bright spot here is Butler's recent two-game "hot streak", which has raised his batting average from a deplorable .193 to a now reasonable .262. Still hopelessly searching for more bright spots, it's worth noting that Butler does sport a totally respectable .377 on base percentage. While he would certainly be a collossal underdog, considering he is not even on the ballot, at least he isn't out until July.
In Hindsight: This does not look good, But at least he is showing signs of life. If I'd written this post a week ago, I would literally have had nothing good to say.
Prediction No. 2: The Royals will have at least 3 representatives at this years All-Star game.
This whole prediction was essentially predicated on either Butler of Gordon catching fire in the season's first two months. Since that hasn't exactly happened (yet), things aren't looking especially rosy in that department.
But that doesn't mean that I've given up on the prediction. There are still some positives to glean from here. Zack Greinke does not even really need to be mentioned, as he is now a national media darling following his (literally) unhittable start to the season. Greinke is 5-0 with a 0.50 ERA, and leads the league in shutouts, complete games, ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Besides that he's been rather pedestrian. The early season favorite for the American League Cy Young award, I'd say it's safe to say Greinke is an All-star lock.
So let's assume that Greinke will be the Royals "automatic selection". That doesn't mean that he will be the only Royal selected. Because all-star pitchers are selected by the managers, there is at least a decent shot that another pitcher will accompany Zack to St. Louis. Gil Meche has also started the season strong, although he has only one win to show for it due to some tough luck. The other candidate remains Joakim Soria, the outstanding young closer. I called Soria an all-star lock, and he would be exactly that if his recent bout of shoulder soreness dissipates quickly. Soria has still posted 5 saves and a 1.80 ERA despite the injury, so if it is as minor as Trey Hillman says, Soria could have a great chance at a second consecutive Summer Classic appearance.
Even with Soria and Greinke, the Royals will need at least one batter to make the squad. While Butler and Gordon were the two I pegged to grab that coveted third slot, a better candidate might be 3B-2B-RF-1B Mark Teahen. Teahen is batting .320 thus far with a .414 OBP, and if you don't understand those numbers, suffice it to say they are very good. When considering that said player has manned four different positions for the team thus far, his value rises even higher. Teahen has displayed excellent opposite-field power, taking all three of his home runs the other way. If we are finally seeing the late 2006 Teahen, he could be a sleeper all-star selection. Also going Teahen's way is the fact he's actually on the ballot, which is more than my man Billy Butler can say. I think he's got at least an outside shot.
In Hindsight: The non-factors Gordon and Butler hurt the prediction, but Greinke's emergence leaves the Royals with two pretty likely candidates (along with Soria). It is entirely feasible that Meche, Teahen, or someone else joins those two. Saying that, I'll need a few breaks to nail this prediction.
Prediction No. 3: The Royals will finish over .500 in 2009, with 83 wins.
Here we are at last, with a prediction that is not only possible, but (gulp) borderline likely. The Royals are currently 12-10, and stand atop the AL Central standings. Even the most critical of Royals fans are glowing with excitement now. With a strong 1-2-3 in the rotation, the Royals seem like a good bet to compete all season long. The Central has been lacking thus far, and Kansas City has a bit of momentum as they turn into the summer months. As well as they have played, things could easily be better for the division leaders. Without even considering the blown saves Kyle Farnsworth has graced us with, the Royals would be better off if any number of the following had happened in April: Alex Gordon had not been injured, Billy Butler had played to his expectations, Joakim Soria had avoided shoulder discomfort, Jose Guillen had not partially torn a muscle in his hip, Mike Aviles had bypassed the sophomore jinx, and (this week's sign of the apocalypse) Sidney Ponson had gotten some run support. So I think its safe to hope that things may actually improve for this squad. Now, if only Billy Butler can just erupt in May...
In Hindsight: I got a little help from Nostradamus with this one. It looks like the Royals could be even better than I thought, a missed prediction I could certainly live with.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Tony Gonzalez Trade Leaves Me Guessing
Today, after months of speculation, Tony Gonzalez was traded to the Atlanta Falcons. This in itself is not especially surprising. Gonzalez trade rumors had been floating around far too long for a deal not to have happened by this Saturday's NFL draft.
And the Chiefs received a second round pick for Gonzalez, which was also no surprise, but rather just solid compensation for a Pro-Bowl player just closing out the prime of his career. No, the only real surprise was that the second round draft pick the Chiefs received was for the 2010 draft. The one that's two days and one year away.
On the outside, this makes little sense. The Chiefs were already down a second round pick this year due to the trade that brought Matt Cassel over from New England. Gonzalez was supposed to be the chip that brought that pick back to us. Now, Kansas City is without a choice between the no. 3 overall pick and the 67th selection in the draft. Put in other words, the Chiefs will make their first selection at approximately 3:30 p.m. Central time on Saturday. Their next selection will come at about 9:30 a.m. on Sunday morning.
Now, maybe the Falcons were the only team offering a second round pick for Gonzalez. If that's the case, why not search for a team in the lower half of the third round willing to offer a pick in this year's draft? The Philadelphia Eagles were known to express interest, and the Green Bay Packers were after Tony G before last season's trading deadline. Shouldn't someone have been willing to pony up with a pick in this year's draft?
With so many holes to fill, (linebacker, Defensive end, running back, offensive tackle/guard, now tight end) I can only assume now that Kansas City GM Scott Pioli has another major move planned before Saturday. A hunch tells me that move would be an attempt to trade the number 3 pick in the draft.
For months now, I have held out hope that Aaron Curry would be available when the Chiefs make their first selection Saturday. Even before the Combine, Curry seemed like the best overall prospect in the draft. After the Combine, he became a sure-thing. There is now talk out of Detroit (where the woeful Lions hold the top pick in the draft) that if they can't agree to a deal with quarterback Matthew Stafford before the draft, they will take Wake Forest grad Curry, whose agent has already hammered out a contract just in case.
If that situation does play out, Kansas City will be in an interesting position. If Stafford slips to No. 3, The Chiefs should be able to entice bidders for the right to choose him. With Seattle sitting at No. 4 and thinking quarterback, it would be a high-leverage situation that Scott Pioli would be sure to exploit. It all sounds great on paper, at least.
Pioli would do well for himself to secure more draft picks for the young Chiefs. The roster he inherited is young and flawed. Trading Tony Gonzalez will hurt both in the passing game and in their blocking schemes, and its going to take several players to fill that void. As of now, I don't see how Pioli and Co. can possibly do that this offseason. At least, that is, unless the Lions do in fact take Aaron Curry. A guy can dream, right?
And the Chiefs received a second round pick for Gonzalez, which was also no surprise, but rather just solid compensation for a Pro-Bowl player just closing out the prime of his career. No, the only real surprise was that the second round draft pick the Chiefs received was for the 2010 draft. The one that's two days and one year away.
On the outside, this makes little sense. The Chiefs were already down a second round pick this year due to the trade that brought Matt Cassel over from New England. Gonzalez was supposed to be the chip that brought that pick back to us. Now, Kansas City is without a choice between the no. 3 overall pick and the 67th selection in the draft. Put in other words, the Chiefs will make their first selection at approximately 3:30 p.m. Central time on Saturday. Their next selection will come at about 9:30 a.m. on Sunday morning.
Now, maybe the Falcons were the only team offering a second round pick for Gonzalez. If that's the case, why not search for a team in the lower half of the third round willing to offer a pick in this year's draft? The Philadelphia Eagles were known to express interest, and the Green Bay Packers were after Tony G before last season's trading deadline. Shouldn't someone have been willing to pony up with a pick in this year's draft?
With so many holes to fill, (linebacker, Defensive end, running back, offensive tackle/guard, now tight end) I can only assume now that Kansas City GM Scott Pioli has another major move planned before Saturday. A hunch tells me that move would be an attempt to trade the number 3 pick in the draft.
For months now, I have held out hope that Aaron Curry would be available when the Chiefs make their first selection Saturday. Even before the Combine, Curry seemed like the best overall prospect in the draft. After the Combine, he became a sure-thing. There is now talk out of Detroit (where the woeful Lions hold the top pick in the draft) that if they can't agree to a deal with quarterback Matthew Stafford before the draft, they will take Wake Forest grad Curry, whose agent has already hammered out a contract just in case.
If that situation does play out, Kansas City will be in an interesting position. If Stafford slips to No. 3, The Chiefs should be able to entice bidders for the right to choose him. With Seattle sitting at No. 4 and thinking quarterback, it would be a high-leverage situation that Scott Pioli would be sure to exploit. It all sounds great on paper, at least.
Pioli would do well for himself to secure more draft picks for the young Chiefs. The roster he inherited is young and flawed. Trading Tony Gonzalez will hurt both in the passing game and in their blocking schemes, and its going to take several players to fill that void. As of now, I don't see how Pioli and Co. can possibly do that this offseason. At least, that is, unless the Lions do in fact take Aaron Curry. A guy can dream, right?
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Chiefs Should Make a Play For Cutler
I'm going to be unabashed here in my belief that the Chiefs would do well to quietly go after Jay Cutler. When I say quietly, the emphasis is on avoiding a Broncos-esque PR disaster that leads Chiefs brass into an uncomfortable situation with recently acquired QB Matt Cassel. Before you remind me of everything that is wrong with Jay Cutler and exploring a trade for him, (crybaby, egomaniac, quitter, pretty boy...I know) at least listen to some very sound reasons why it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.
For starters, I'm not afraid to admit, I actually like Cutler as a football player. He is an above average quarterback bordering on elite who, at age 25, has just completed his best year as a pro. It was his first full season since being diagnosed with diabetes and his performance came despite seven Broncos running backs ending the season on IR. The defense was horrific. Mike Shanahan was on the verge of being fired. It was a tough end to a season full of expectations.
But Cutler emerged as the team leader, often playing from behind and never selling out his over-exposed defense. He made the Pro Bowl, throwing for over 4,000 yards. He did more than any young quarterback should ever be asked to do. And yet Shanahan was fired after the disappointing season. Hotshot Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels was chosen as his successor. McDaniels assured Cutler that he was the teams quarterback of the present and future. He then, like clockwork, informed offensive coordinator and Cutler confidant Jeremy Bates that he was no longer in Denver's plans. Some would say this was a great way to alienate your best player and team leader, but Cutler handled it relatively well. What he didn't handle so well was when the team, mere weeks after assuring him he was their man, swung hard and missed on former New England Patriots and current Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel. Tell me, what Pro Bowl quarterback would take that news well?
So, you say, boo hoo. And I agree. I'm not shedding any tears for Cutler. But this fiasco may well turn into an opportunity for the Chiefs, if they are so inclined. The Chiefs have a luxury that not one other team in the NFL can claim: they have the quarterback that the Denver Broncos covet. Think about it. This could make for some fantastic bargaining leverage. Some people say that the Broncos would never trade Cutler to a division rival. And normally I would concur. But the wild card is Cassel. This is the Broncos guy. Acquiring him would solve this whole controversy.
Owner Pat Bowlen's announcement that Cutler will be traded further complicates things for the team. Every team in the league now knows there is no turning back. Furthermore, the Broncos will need a new starting quarterback in any deal that they make. So why not go for the guy they wanted in the first place? Because the Chiefs have all of that highly sought leverage, they could potentially trade the quarterbacks even up and ditch the 14 million dollars guaranteed to Cassel by franchise-tagging him this season. If they wanted to push their luck, they might be able to coerce a late round pick out of them too, just to prove they won the deal. And what, you wonder, is the financial obligation to Cutler? I never thought you'd ask. He makes a whopping 1.035 million this season, and 5.4225 mil next season, including incentives. That's less money than a one year commitment to Cassel.
Right now the Chiefs are holding all the cards if they choose to jump into the bidding for Cutler. But you have to get in the game to win big.
For starters, I'm not afraid to admit, I actually like Cutler as a football player. He is an above average quarterback bordering on elite who, at age 25, has just completed his best year as a pro. It was his first full season since being diagnosed with diabetes and his performance came despite seven Broncos running backs ending the season on IR. The defense was horrific. Mike Shanahan was on the verge of being fired. It was a tough end to a season full of expectations.
But Cutler emerged as the team leader, often playing from behind and never selling out his over-exposed defense. He made the Pro Bowl, throwing for over 4,000 yards. He did more than any young quarterback should ever be asked to do. And yet Shanahan was fired after the disappointing season. Hotshot Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels was chosen as his successor. McDaniels assured Cutler that he was the teams quarterback of the present and future. He then, like clockwork, informed offensive coordinator and Cutler confidant Jeremy Bates that he was no longer in Denver's plans. Some would say this was a great way to alienate your best player and team leader, but Cutler handled it relatively well. What he didn't handle so well was when the team, mere weeks after assuring him he was their man, swung hard and missed on former New England Patriots and current Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel. Tell me, what Pro Bowl quarterback would take that news well?
So, you say, boo hoo. And I agree. I'm not shedding any tears for Cutler. But this fiasco may well turn into an opportunity for the Chiefs, if they are so inclined. The Chiefs have a luxury that not one other team in the NFL can claim: they have the quarterback that the Denver Broncos covet. Think about it. This could make for some fantastic bargaining leverage. Some people say that the Broncos would never trade Cutler to a division rival. And normally I would concur. But the wild card is Cassel. This is the Broncos guy. Acquiring him would solve this whole controversy.
Owner Pat Bowlen's announcement that Cutler will be traded further complicates things for the team. Every team in the league now knows there is no turning back. Furthermore, the Broncos will need a new starting quarterback in any deal that they make. So why not go for the guy they wanted in the first place? Because the Chiefs have all of that highly sought leverage, they could potentially trade the quarterbacks even up and ditch the 14 million dollars guaranteed to Cassel by franchise-tagging him this season. If they wanted to push their luck, they might be able to coerce a late round pick out of them too, just to prove they won the deal. And what, you wonder, is the financial obligation to Cutler? I never thought you'd ask. He makes a whopping 1.035 million this season, and 5.4225 mil next season, including incentives. That's less money than a one year commitment to Cassel.
Right now the Chiefs are holding all the cards if they choose to jump into the bidding for Cutler. But you have to get in the game to win big.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Kansas Will Be Fine Even If Stars Leave
No one would blame them for cashing in while the iron is hot. From a purely fiscal standpoint, Kansas stars Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich would do well for themselves by dropping out of school, declaring for the draft, and channeling all of their energy into pre-draft workouts. Aldrich scored big in the NCAA Tournament by turning in his first career triple-double, a 13 point, 20 rebound, 10 block extravaganza against Dayton. He also played well in the Sweet 16 loss to Michigan State, turning in 17 points to go with 14 rebounds, 4 assists, (only) 4 blocks, and 2 steals. His draft stock skyrocketed with his showing, and he's got little reason to stay at KU, earning a top-notch education aside.
Sherron Collins nearly equalled Aldrich's production, as he shot 32-58 for the tournament, good for 55% shooting. Collins was the clear leader of a team that overachieved all season long. Collins was a force, and the numbers back that up. Collins currently ranks 4th among the tournament's leading scorers, a feat that only gets more impressive when one considers he played one less game than every other player in the top 10. A junior, Collins has nothing left to gain(financially) and everything to lose by staying for another season. The Jayhawks will have a highly touted class coming in next year, and it is unlikely that he will be able to improve upon his 2009 NCAA Tournament production with more talent around him.
My thought is that both players should go. The program can only be helped by sending their promising young talents on to greener pastures and NBA success. As sad as it is, promising recruits with NBA dreams want to go to a school where they can fulfill their unlimited, and largely untapped, potential. Kansas, under head coach Bill Self, is becoming increasingly appealing to these players. With Aldrich and Collins pumping up the school's draft profile yet again, the remaining undecided high school seniors (ahem, John Wall and Lance Stephenson) may be intrigued at the chance to be the man on a contending team with unsurpassed tradition. Even with the loss of their two best players, Kansas will be strong next year.
They have already secured Top 30 recruits Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson, along with Arizona 7-foot transfer Jeff Withey, who will be available for the Spring semester. With even modest improvement from the Morris twins, the Jayhawks could still have a formidable frontcourt. The backcourt, with newcomer Johnson to go with sophomores-to-be Tyshawn Taylor, Mario Little, Travis Releford as well as juniors Brady Morningstar and Tyrell Reed, will be inexperienced but talented. Am I arguing that the 2009-2010 Kansas team will be better without Collins and Aldrich? No.
But, being the glass-is-half-full guy that I am, I can envision a situation where losing the two best players may yet provide a boon to the program. If both players do bolt for the NBA, the door may just open for another top recruit to sway his choice of where to train for the 2010 NBA draft next season.
And, you know, go to school while he's at it.
Sherron Collins nearly equalled Aldrich's production, as he shot 32-58 for the tournament, good for 55% shooting. Collins was the clear leader of a team that overachieved all season long. Collins was a force, and the numbers back that up. Collins currently ranks 4th among the tournament's leading scorers, a feat that only gets more impressive when one considers he played one less game than every other player in the top 10. A junior, Collins has nothing left to gain(financially) and everything to lose by staying for another season. The Jayhawks will have a highly touted class coming in next year, and it is unlikely that he will be able to improve upon his 2009 NCAA Tournament production with more talent around him.
My thought is that both players should go. The program can only be helped by sending their promising young talents on to greener pastures and NBA success. As sad as it is, promising recruits with NBA dreams want to go to a school where they can fulfill their unlimited, and largely untapped, potential. Kansas, under head coach Bill Self, is becoming increasingly appealing to these players. With Aldrich and Collins pumping up the school's draft profile yet again, the remaining undecided high school seniors (ahem, John Wall and Lance Stephenson) may be intrigued at the chance to be the man on a contending team with unsurpassed tradition. Even with the loss of their two best players, Kansas will be strong next year.
They have already secured Top 30 recruits Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson, along with Arizona 7-foot transfer Jeff Withey, who will be available for the Spring semester. With even modest improvement from the Morris twins, the Jayhawks could still have a formidable frontcourt. The backcourt, with newcomer Johnson to go with sophomores-to-be Tyshawn Taylor, Mario Little, Travis Releford as well as juniors Brady Morningstar and Tyrell Reed, will be inexperienced but talented. Am I arguing that the 2009-2010 Kansas team will be better without Collins and Aldrich? No.
But, being the glass-is-half-full guy that I am, I can envision a situation where losing the two best players may yet provide a boon to the program. If both players do bolt for the NBA, the door may just open for another top recruit to sway his choice of where to train for the 2010 NBA draft next season.
And, you know, go to school while he's at it.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Predictable Big 12 Tournament Gets a Dash of the Unexpected
Since its inception in 1997, the Big 12 Tournament has been predictable. And really, that is an understatement. In the 12 years of its existence, The Big 12 Tournament has only been won by four teams. Kansas has won 6, Oklahoma 3, Oklahoma State 2, and Iowa State 1 in what can only be described as their Marcus Fizer/Jamaal Tinsley glory year(singular). No seed below #3 has ever won the crown.
So I should say that the Big 12 Tournament is as predictable as April showers, more predictable than May flowers, and only slightly less predictable than a Missouri loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. So it should not be surprising that I'm currently searching for evidence that I've entered the Twilight Zone. Allow me to recap.
Tournament action began on Wednesday afternoon, and things looked about normal as Nebraska ducked out in the first round. Despite being seeded higher than Baylor, was there any doubt that the Huskers would make a first round upset? Chalk that up there with predictable things that happen during the Big 12 Tournament, along with Kansas State losing their first game in demoralizing fashion*. So no one was shocked to see Baylor pull the "upset", because lets face it, they were supposed to be the better team anyway.
*Four words for you: The Pervis Pasco game.
It was business as usual the rest of the afternoon as Texas and Oklahoma State took care of business, sealing enticing match-ups in Round 2 against Kansas State and Oklahoma, respectively. So when Texas A&M began handling Texas Tech, taking an easy 48-29 halftime lead, yours truly and others let out a collective yawn and prepared ourselves for the next days action. Unfortunately for us, we missed the creepy Twilight Zone intro music that started up at about the same time.
Because after the break, the Texas Tech Mike Singletary's exploded for 58 points, including 29 consecutive points for Mr. Singletary himself that surged the suddenly dangerous Red Raiders to an 88-83 victory. It was a virtuoso performance, from a distinctly un-virtuoso type of player. In essence, it was exactly what this Tournament needed. And it didn't end there.
Thursday provided the most impressive string of upsets in Big 12 Tournament history, with 3 of the 4 higher seeds going down. The onslaught began when Kansas faced Baylor in the 11:30 a.m tipoff game. Baylor took advantage of the early start and raced out to a 17 point first half lead. Luckily, a frantic University of Kansas employee was able to coerce the drowsy Kansas team from their rooms to play the second half, and things stabilized for the Jayhawks. They stormed back and took a five point lead with a few minutes to play, all but ensuring that they would make the Semifinals for the umpteenth consecutive year. But Baylor forgot that they were supposed to collapse and fought until the final buzzer, pulling out an impressive 71-64 victory.
Kansas State (predictably) went on to lose to #5 seed Texas, trying to restore order to a tournament that threatened to go haywire at any moment. But their efforts simply were not enough to keep things on track, as Oklahoma State upended Oklahoma in a one point victory and secured a semi-final berth. Texas Tech ran out of gas in their matchup against Missouri, making the Tigers the only top seed to advance to the semi-final round.
So here we were with the conventional #9-#5 and #3-#7 matchups in Friday's games, with Baylor and Texas kicking things off and Missouri-Oklahoma State as the nightcap. Remember that no team seeded lower than #3 has ever won the Big 12 Tournament. Even this round is a significant event in a tournament that up until this year has been anything but a crapshoot.
And what happened? Well, Baylor continued its odyssey by winning against Texas and advancing to the Big 12 Title game. They will face Missouri there, a Missouri team which has everything to play for. And by everything, I mean a possible placement in Kansas City from the NCAA Tournament Selection. But Baylor, they've got a thing or two left to say to. There's nothing quite like playing a basketball game in Oklahoma City that's watched by college basketball coaches, pundits, and players all across the country. The University of Wisconsin will watch it. And Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. USC will be interested, as will Saint Mary's, Texas A@M, and Providence.
Baylor could very well take a much coveted NCAA Tournament spot from any of those teams, all of which will likely be sitting on the edge of their seats for the duration of the game. They will watch because all these teams know, deep down in their hearts, that anything is possible...in the Twilight Zone.
So I should say that the Big 12 Tournament is as predictable as April showers, more predictable than May flowers, and only slightly less predictable than a Missouri loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. So it should not be surprising that I'm currently searching for evidence that I've entered the Twilight Zone. Allow me to recap.
Tournament action began on Wednesday afternoon, and things looked about normal as Nebraska ducked out in the first round. Despite being seeded higher than Baylor, was there any doubt that the Huskers would make a first round upset? Chalk that up there with predictable things that happen during the Big 12 Tournament, along with Kansas State losing their first game in demoralizing fashion*. So no one was shocked to see Baylor pull the "upset", because lets face it, they were supposed to be the better team anyway.
*Four words for you: The Pervis Pasco game.
It was business as usual the rest of the afternoon as Texas and Oklahoma State took care of business, sealing enticing match-ups in Round 2 against Kansas State and Oklahoma, respectively. So when Texas A&M began handling Texas Tech, taking an easy 48-29 halftime lead, yours truly and others let out a collective yawn and prepared ourselves for the next days action. Unfortunately for us, we missed the creepy Twilight Zone intro music that started up at about the same time.
Because after the break, the Texas Tech Mike Singletary's exploded for 58 points, including 29 consecutive points for Mr. Singletary himself that surged the suddenly dangerous Red Raiders to an 88-83 victory. It was a virtuoso performance, from a distinctly un-virtuoso type of player. In essence, it was exactly what this Tournament needed. And it didn't end there.
Thursday provided the most impressive string of upsets in Big 12 Tournament history, with 3 of the 4 higher seeds going down. The onslaught began when Kansas faced Baylor in the 11:30 a.m tipoff game. Baylor took advantage of the early start and raced out to a 17 point first half lead. Luckily, a frantic University of Kansas employee was able to coerce the drowsy Kansas team from their rooms to play the second half, and things stabilized for the Jayhawks. They stormed back and took a five point lead with a few minutes to play, all but ensuring that they would make the Semifinals for the umpteenth consecutive year. But Baylor forgot that they were supposed to collapse and fought until the final buzzer, pulling out an impressive 71-64 victory.
Kansas State (predictably) went on to lose to #5 seed Texas, trying to restore order to a tournament that threatened to go haywire at any moment. But their efforts simply were not enough to keep things on track, as Oklahoma State upended Oklahoma in a one point victory and secured a semi-final berth. Texas Tech ran out of gas in their matchup against Missouri, making the Tigers the only top seed to advance to the semi-final round.
So here we were with the conventional #9-#5 and #3-#7 matchups in Friday's games, with Baylor and Texas kicking things off and Missouri-Oklahoma State as the nightcap. Remember that no team seeded lower than #3 has ever won the Big 12 Tournament. Even this round is a significant event in a tournament that up until this year has been anything but a crapshoot.
And what happened? Well, Baylor continued its odyssey by winning against Texas and advancing to the Big 12 Title game. They will face Missouri there, a Missouri team which has everything to play for. And by everything, I mean a possible placement in Kansas City from the NCAA Tournament Selection. But Baylor, they've got a thing or two left to say to. There's nothing quite like playing a basketball game in Oklahoma City that's watched by college basketball coaches, pundits, and players all across the country. The University of Wisconsin will watch it. And Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. USC will be interested, as will Saint Mary's, Texas A@M, and Providence.
Baylor could very well take a much coveted NCAA Tournament spot from any of those teams, all of which will likely be sitting on the edge of their seats for the duration of the game. They will watch because all these teams know, deep down in their hearts, that anything is possible...in the Twilight Zone.
Friday, March 6, 2009
AROD Has an Injured Hip!!!
Just kidding. I am not, or will I ever, write any piece about an injury to Alex Rodriguez. But I do think it is time for me to make a stand on the amount of news hovering around the "fraudulent one" and others like him. Over the past few months, I have heard enough about Manny, A-Rod, and T.O. to earn a Masters degree in needless drivel. I now watch Sportscenter through clenched teeth. When will the madness end?
First its A-Rod's love life, then his decision to play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, followed by the steroids allegations (I guess steroids can be purchased over the counter in the Dominican. Maybe that explains the loyalty), which were followed by the "Cousin Reports", which all inevitably led to the announcement that Rodriguez was severely injured and would need to drain a cyst out of his hip.
All of this A-Rod coverage was unsightly and unneccesary, because really when push comes to shove, I guess that 70% of the country couldn't care less about Rodriguez.
There are four major professional sports that are all currently involved in heavy regular season or off-season activity. I would gladly listen to developing stories about the NFL hot stove, MLB Spring Training or the WBC, the possible NCAA Tournament field, or the stretch drive towards what could be the best NBA season in years. Hell, I would even be more interested in the NHL trading deadline. But instead of any of this, I see the first twenty minutes of Sportscenter divided up between Manny(who I'll get to in a moment), A-Rod, and roughly 375 ESPN commentators eager to give their analysis.
And insightful it was. I learned that the Dodger offense will be noticeably better with Manny Ramirez finally signed, and that the Yankees will lose offensive production with ARod out of their lineup. You may think I am being overly simplistic in my description here, but I'm not. I literally sat and watched a talking head(in a distinct New York accent) make the argument that the Yankees will be hurt without ARod in the lineup. And this guy is getting paid to give us this analysis? OF COURSE the Yankees will lose offense without ARod! We don't need to hear a native New Yorker wallow in self-pity on-air for ten minutes to figure this out. It's common sense.
The same goes for the Manny Ramirez signing. Is there anyone who was truly sitting on the edge of their seat during the Manny Ramirez press conference after he signed his 2 year, 45 million dollar contract? Anybody besides the hordes of ESPN employees foaming at the mouth in the press corps? He signed roughly the exact same deal that the Dodgers put on the table four months ago, at the start of free agency. And up until the signing was announced earlier this week, the negotiations were kept under closer tabs than the national terror alert ratings. And the question I have is: who cares? It was painfully obvious that Manny had no other offers months ago. The story was beaten into the ground, unearthed, and then pummelled back into the earths core.
Now, I know that major sports outlets have to cater to the largest markets in the country first. But there needs to be limits. With the economy in as bad of shape as it is, I can't fathom how ESPN and others can afford to offer around the clock coverage on two aging baseball players.
First its A-Rod's love life, then his decision to play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, followed by the steroids allegations (I guess steroids can be purchased over the counter in the Dominican. Maybe that explains the loyalty), which were followed by the "Cousin Reports", which all inevitably led to the announcement that Rodriguez was severely injured and would need to drain a cyst out of his hip.
All of this A-Rod coverage was unsightly and unneccesary, because really when push comes to shove, I guess that 70% of the country couldn't care less about Rodriguez.
There are four major professional sports that are all currently involved in heavy regular season or off-season activity. I would gladly listen to developing stories about the NFL hot stove, MLB Spring Training or the WBC, the possible NCAA Tournament field, or the stretch drive towards what could be the best NBA season in years. Hell, I would even be more interested in the NHL trading deadline. But instead of any of this, I see the first twenty minutes of Sportscenter divided up between Manny(who I'll get to in a moment), A-Rod, and roughly 375 ESPN commentators eager to give their analysis.
And insightful it was. I learned that the Dodger offense will be noticeably better with Manny Ramirez finally signed, and that the Yankees will lose offensive production with ARod out of their lineup. You may think I am being overly simplistic in my description here, but I'm not. I literally sat and watched a talking head(in a distinct New York accent) make the argument that the Yankees will be hurt without ARod in the lineup. And this guy is getting paid to give us this analysis? OF COURSE the Yankees will lose offense without ARod! We don't need to hear a native New Yorker wallow in self-pity on-air for ten minutes to figure this out. It's common sense.
The same goes for the Manny Ramirez signing. Is there anyone who was truly sitting on the edge of their seat during the Manny Ramirez press conference after he signed his 2 year, 45 million dollar contract? Anybody besides the hordes of ESPN employees foaming at the mouth in the press corps? He signed roughly the exact same deal that the Dodgers put on the table four months ago, at the start of free agency. And up until the signing was announced earlier this week, the negotiations were kept under closer tabs than the national terror alert ratings. And the question I have is: who cares? It was painfully obvious that Manny had no other offers months ago. The story was beaten into the ground, unearthed, and then pummelled back into the earths core.
Now, I know that major sports outlets have to cater to the largest markets in the country first. But there needs to be limits. With the economy in as bad of shape as it is, I can't fathom how ESPN and others can afford to offer around the clock coverage on two aging baseball players.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Extra! Extra! Big News for KU!
I've just taken a peek at The Sports Department's official crystal ball(we keep it in the back), and I've learned something amazing. The University of Kansas men's basketball team will earn a No. 1 seed to the 2009 NCAA Tournament. Hey, don't kill the messenger. It's not me with the other-wordly powers of prediction, the ability to read the unwritten trials of the future... its the crystal ball. I'm just the guy in the brown uniform who drops it delicately on your doorsteps.
In this instance the all-powerful ball was kind enough to leave me the reasoning behind its predicition, arguing(pointedly) that no one would believe me without presenting the facts. So, in no particular order, here are those reasons:
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
There is nothing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee likes better than a team on the rise. A classic example of a team that should be worried is Texas. Back to back wins over UCLA and Villanova in early December bolstered their tournament resume, but a slump in conference play leaves them hoping for a spot. Texas is 4-6 since Janunary 31st, including a three game skid against Kansas State, Missouri, and Nebraska. If the Longhorns finish 6th in the conference, where they stand right now, can that be overlooked?
On the opposite end of the spectrum lies Kansas. They've won 13 of their last 14 games, all in- conference. Their one loss during that stretch came at Missouri on a Zaire Taylor buzzer beater; the same Missouri team who the Jayhawks just grilled on Sunday by 25 points. I'd call that vindication. Kansas also beat expected No. 1 seed Oklahoma (albeit sans megastar Blake Griffin)
last week in all but clinching the Big 12 Conference title, which should be renamed in their honor any year now. If they win out and finish 15-1 in conference, they would be another Big 12 Tournament title away from serious No. 1 consideration. This would sound far-fetched and opitimistic for most teams, but that's what Kansas does. The Jayhawks have won 6 of the 12 Big 12 Conference Tournaments (the conference didn't exist until 1997). This isn't a stretch. In fact...
Some Teams in Front of Kansas Have Major Obstacles in Their Way
I'm taking a gander at the latest RPI rankings, and Kansas is listed at #7. Here is the Top 10, in order, followed by their actual AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Pittsburg(3)
2. Duke(7)
3. North Carolina(2)
4. Michigan State(8)
5.Oklahoma(4)
6. Connecticut(1)
7. Kansas(9)
8. Memphis(5)
9. Utah(NR)
10. Louisville(6)
Now, there are only four No.1 teams, and I am going to assume that these teams have the best chance at being in those spots. That is, with the obvious exception of Utah, who has no business being mentioned with these teams and is struggling to even secure a spot in the Dance, much less a No. 1 seed. Their inclusion in the top 10 in the RPI tells you all you need to know about the flaws of the system. But besides them, the other schools are at least contenders. Of the remaning nine schools, several have concerns.
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: I'm putting these two together because I don't see a situation where they both make it. Pittsburgh's dirty little secret is that they had a very pedestrian non-conference slate. Their best win came at #24 Florida State, but the rest of the slate is barren.
UConn is the closest thing to a lock at this point, having lost only two games all season. But if they suffer another loss to Pittsburgh and fall before the Big East final, their status gets much murkier. Both teams play in the tough Big East, but that is a double-edged sword. Still left on the plate for Pitt are Connecticut and #15 Marquette. I see them losing to UConn* and then beating an undermanned Marquette squad. Either way, only one of these two will get a precious No. 1 seed.
*Also at play here is the fact that three of the top six teams in the AP poll are from the Big East. With Pitt and UConn slated to face off next Sunday, one is guaranteed to lose ground in the race for a No. 1 seed. Louisville now turns into a dark horse, especially if Pitt beats UConn Sunday and Louisville secures a one seed in the conference tournament. I'll get to that.
Louisville: Despite a horrible 17 point loss to UConn and a 23 point loss to previously AWOL Notre Dame, Louisville is still very much in the hunt to win their conference. If they can do that, it would set up a potential semifinal game with injury-riddled Marquette, while Pitt and UConn would battle in the other semifinal. This tends to give creedence to my belief that only one of those two teams can secure a No. 1 seed. While I don't think Louisville is deserving, as they have the worst losses of any team in consideration(Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV), the scheduling gods may just give them a freshly stamped invitation to their conference championship game. They need to win out to be considered, and winning out would mean a victory over (potentially) UConn or Pittsburgh. I don't think Louisville is consistent enough, personally, but if they are, all the power to them. They would likely be stealing the assumed to be locked up Pitt/UConn top seed.
Memphis: Now here is a team who I feel is miscast among the big boys. Conference USA, where the Tigers call home, can proudly claim to be the 10th best conference in college basketball, just behind the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley conferences. Conference USA is abysmal, and no team playing in it should be considered for a top NCAA Tournament seed. Period. Memphis is a mere 50th in strength of schedule, and have only had one win against a team ranked in the Top 25 (Gonzaga). Even by winning their conference tournament, I will have them no higher than a No. 2 seed. They just don't deserve to be higher.
Duke/UNC: Much like Pitt/UConn, Duke and North Carolina are tightly linked. Like their Big East counterparts, Duke and North Carolina play again in Chapel Hill on March 8th. They also still have to play their conference tournament, where one squad is mathematically guaranteed to lose. The winner of Sunday's game should have the inside edge, but Duke needs the victory a bit more. I still can't imagine both teams at No. 1 come Selection Sunday. My hunch is that UNC wins this weekend and all but secures the nod for themselves, barring an unforseen turn for the worst in the conference tournament.
Michigan State: Even though I unapologetically loathe the Big 10, I can view this team without those blinders on. I can do this because I saw them dominate the Kansas Jayhawks on January 10, 75-62. It was worse than the score indicated. Michigan State also beat Big 12 bubble resters Oklahoma State and Texas. They are only ranked #8, though, and will need to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed. My hunch is that they will do just that, beating Purdue at home this Sunday and taking that momentum to a Big 10 Conference crown. If they do they should be able to snag one of the four top spots.
Oklahoma/Kansas: As of now I have three teams pegged for the four possible No. 1 seeds. They are UConn/Pitt, Duke/UNC, Michigan State, and now OU/KU. Well, if you've caught the gist of this article, its that Kansas will claim that elusive fourth no. 1 seed, meaning they will likely be able to play their first round games in Kansas City, which I shouldn't have to mention would be a distinct advantage. I think Kansas will win out the regular season and take home their conference tournament title, beating OU for the second time in the process. Granted this is all hypothetical, but if Oklahoma lose twice to Kansas, there is no way they would be considered ahead of the boys in blue. Blake Griffin is a beast, I realize, and the Big 12 tournament is being held in Oklahoma City, but Bill Self is still the coach up in Lawrence and its the same team that's lost only one conference game. Look for them to hoist another conference trophy over their heads.
If all this isn't enough to convince you that Kansas will become a No. 1 seed, surely you'll be convinced by the fact that...
I Was Just Assured By a Crystal Ball That This Would Happen
Really, the rest of the case is just semantics.
In this instance the all-powerful ball was kind enough to leave me the reasoning behind its predicition, arguing(pointedly) that no one would believe me without presenting the facts. So, in no particular order, here are those reasons:
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
There is nothing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee likes better than a team on the rise. A classic example of a team that should be worried is Texas. Back to back wins over UCLA and Villanova in early December bolstered their tournament resume, but a slump in conference play leaves them hoping for a spot. Texas is 4-6 since Janunary 31st, including a three game skid against Kansas State, Missouri, and Nebraska. If the Longhorns finish 6th in the conference, where they stand right now, can that be overlooked?
On the opposite end of the spectrum lies Kansas. They've won 13 of their last 14 games, all in- conference. Their one loss during that stretch came at Missouri on a Zaire Taylor buzzer beater; the same Missouri team who the Jayhawks just grilled on Sunday by 25 points. I'd call that vindication. Kansas also beat expected No. 1 seed Oklahoma (albeit sans megastar Blake Griffin)
last week in all but clinching the Big 12 Conference title, which should be renamed in their honor any year now. If they win out and finish 15-1 in conference, they would be another Big 12 Tournament title away from serious No. 1 consideration. This would sound far-fetched and opitimistic for most teams, but that's what Kansas does. The Jayhawks have won 6 of the 12 Big 12 Conference Tournaments (the conference didn't exist until 1997). This isn't a stretch. In fact...
Some Teams in Front of Kansas Have Major Obstacles in Their Way
I'm taking a gander at the latest RPI rankings, and Kansas is listed at #7. Here is the Top 10, in order, followed by their actual AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Pittsburg(3)
2. Duke(7)
3. North Carolina(2)
4. Michigan State(8)
5.Oklahoma(4)
6. Connecticut(1)
7. Kansas(9)
8. Memphis(5)
9. Utah(NR)
10. Louisville(6)
Now, there are only four No.1 teams, and I am going to assume that these teams have the best chance at being in those spots. That is, with the obvious exception of Utah, who has no business being mentioned with these teams and is struggling to even secure a spot in the Dance, much less a No. 1 seed. Their inclusion in the top 10 in the RPI tells you all you need to know about the flaws of the system. But besides them, the other schools are at least contenders. Of the remaning nine schools, several have concerns.
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: I'm putting these two together because I don't see a situation where they both make it. Pittsburgh's dirty little secret is that they had a very pedestrian non-conference slate. Their best win came at #24 Florida State, but the rest of the slate is barren.
UConn is the closest thing to a lock at this point, having lost only two games all season. But if they suffer another loss to Pittsburgh and fall before the Big East final, their status gets much murkier. Both teams play in the tough Big East, but that is a double-edged sword. Still left on the plate for Pitt are Connecticut and #15 Marquette. I see them losing to UConn* and then beating an undermanned Marquette squad. Either way, only one of these two will get a precious No. 1 seed.
*Also at play here is the fact that three of the top six teams in the AP poll are from the Big East. With Pitt and UConn slated to face off next Sunday, one is guaranteed to lose ground in the race for a No. 1 seed. Louisville now turns into a dark horse, especially if Pitt beats UConn Sunday and Louisville secures a one seed in the conference tournament. I'll get to that.
Louisville: Despite a horrible 17 point loss to UConn and a 23 point loss to previously AWOL Notre Dame, Louisville is still very much in the hunt to win their conference. If they can do that, it would set up a potential semifinal game with injury-riddled Marquette, while Pitt and UConn would battle in the other semifinal. This tends to give creedence to my belief that only one of those two teams can secure a No. 1 seed. While I don't think Louisville is deserving, as they have the worst losses of any team in consideration(Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV), the scheduling gods may just give them a freshly stamped invitation to their conference championship game. They need to win out to be considered, and winning out would mean a victory over (potentially) UConn or Pittsburgh. I don't think Louisville is consistent enough, personally, but if they are, all the power to them. They would likely be stealing the assumed to be locked up Pitt/UConn top seed.
Memphis: Now here is a team who I feel is miscast among the big boys. Conference USA, where the Tigers call home, can proudly claim to be the 10th best conference in college basketball, just behind the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley conferences. Conference USA is abysmal, and no team playing in it should be considered for a top NCAA Tournament seed. Period. Memphis is a mere 50th in strength of schedule, and have only had one win against a team ranked in the Top 25 (Gonzaga). Even by winning their conference tournament, I will have them no higher than a No. 2 seed. They just don't deserve to be higher.
Duke/UNC: Much like Pitt/UConn, Duke and North Carolina are tightly linked. Like their Big East counterparts, Duke and North Carolina play again in Chapel Hill on March 8th. They also still have to play their conference tournament, where one squad is mathematically guaranteed to lose. The winner of Sunday's game should have the inside edge, but Duke needs the victory a bit more. I still can't imagine both teams at No. 1 come Selection Sunday. My hunch is that UNC wins this weekend and all but secures the nod for themselves, barring an unforseen turn for the worst in the conference tournament.
Michigan State: Even though I unapologetically loathe the Big 10, I can view this team without those blinders on. I can do this because I saw them dominate the Kansas Jayhawks on January 10, 75-62. It was worse than the score indicated. Michigan State also beat Big 12 bubble resters Oklahoma State and Texas. They are only ranked #8, though, and will need to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed. My hunch is that they will do just that, beating Purdue at home this Sunday and taking that momentum to a Big 10 Conference crown. If they do they should be able to snag one of the four top spots.
Oklahoma/Kansas: As of now I have three teams pegged for the four possible No. 1 seeds. They are UConn/Pitt, Duke/UNC, Michigan State, and now OU/KU. Well, if you've caught the gist of this article, its that Kansas will claim that elusive fourth no. 1 seed, meaning they will likely be able to play their first round games in Kansas City, which I shouldn't have to mention would be a distinct advantage. I think Kansas will win out the regular season and take home their conference tournament title, beating OU for the second time in the process. Granted this is all hypothetical, but if Oklahoma lose twice to Kansas, there is no way they would be considered ahead of the boys in blue. Blake Griffin is a beast, I realize, and the Big 12 tournament is being held in Oklahoma City, but Bill Self is still the coach up in Lawrence and its the same team that's lost only one conference game. Look for them to hoist another conference trophy over their heads.
If all this isn't enough to convince you that Kansas will become a No. 1 seed, surely you'll be convinced by the fact that...
I Was Just Assured By a Crystal Ball That This Would Happen
Really, the rest of the case is just semantics.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)