A Look at my 2009 Official Royals Predictions

One month of baseball has already passed us by (where did all the days go?) and it is time to take a look at my Official Royals Predictions for 2009. These were made prior to the year and were admittedly seasoned with as much optimism as I could muster. Let's take a prediction-by-prediction look at exactly how badly my Royals blinders have been exposed so far.

Prediction No. 1: Alex Gordon or Billy Butler will be an (ahem) All-Star.

This was by far the most egregious example of my blatant homerism on this blog. What can I say?
Let's start with Alex Gordon, who went on the disabled list after two weeks and a 2 for 21 slump to begin the season. So my guess is that it's safe assume he won't be representing Major League Baseball in St. Louis this summer. While the early slump was troubling, it can be explained (somewhat) by the hip he initially injured on Opening Day. Being a gamer, Gordon attempted to play through the injury. It just didn't work out. The injury does nothing to take away from his enormous potential, but Gordon will be on the shelf until late June and can't be considered an All-star candidate (at least until 2010).
In Hindsight: Gordon will one day be a great player, but his injury makes this prediction a major failure.

Butler's case is at least slightly more compelling, if only for the recent signs of life his bat has shown. But all in all, things are not looking good. Butler began the season with on a 2 for 22 streak, not collecting his first home run until his two-dinger outburst Wednesday night against Toronto. The early slump mirrored the beginning of his 2008 season, and simultaneously shamed me (greatly) for guaranteeing that it would not happen again.

So it goes. The bright spot here is Butler's recent two-game "hot streak", which has raised his batting average from a deplorable .193 to a now reasonable .262. Still hopelessly searching for more bright spots, it's worth noting that Butler does sport a totally respectable .377 on base percentage. While he would certainly be a collossal underdog, considering he is not even on the ballot, at least he isn't out until July.
In Hindsight: This does not look good, But at least he is showing signs of life. If I'd written this post a week ago, I would literally have had nothing good to say.


Prediction No. 2: The Royals will have at least 3 representatives at this years All-Star game.

This whole prediction was essentially predicated on either Butler of Gordon catching fire in the season's first two months. Since that hasn't exactly happened (yet), things aren't looking especially rosy in that department.
But that doesn't mean that I've given up on the prediction. There are still some positives to glean from here. Zack Greinke does not even really need to be mentioned, as he is now a national media darling following his (literally) unhittable start to the season. Greinke is 5-0 with a 0.50 ERA, and leads the league in shutouts, complete games, ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched. Besides that he's been rather pedestrian. The early season favorite for the American League Cy Young award, I'd say it's safe to say Greinke is an All-star lock.

So let's assume that Greinke will be the Royals "automatic selection". That doesn't mean that he will be the only Royal selected. Because all-star pitchers are selected by the managers, there is at least a decent shot that another pitcher will accompany Zack to St. Louis. Gil Meche has also started the season strong, although he has only one win to show for it due to some tough luck. The other candidate remains Joakim Soria, the outstanding young closer. I called Soria an all-star lock, and he would be exactly that if his recent bout of shoulder soreness dissipates quickly. Soria has still posted 5 saves and a 1.80 ERA despite the injury, so if it is as minor as Trey Hillman says, Soria could have a great chance at a second consecutive Summer Classic appearance.

Even with Soria and Greinke, the Royals will need at least one batter to make the squad. While Butler and Gordon were the two I pegged to grab that coveted third slot, a better candidate might be 3B-2B-RF-1B Mark Teahen. Teahen is batting .320 thus far with a .414 OBP, and if you don't understand those numbers, suffice it to say they are very good. When considering that said player has manned four different positions for the team thus far, his value rises even higher. Teahen has displayed excellent opposite-field power, taking all three of his home runs the other way. If we are finally seeing the late 2006 Teahen, he could be a sleeper all-star selection. Also going Teahen's way is the fact he's actually on the ballot, which is more than my man Billy Butler can say. I think he's got at least an outside shot.
In Hindsight: The non-factors Gordon and Butler hurt the prediction, but Greinke's emergence leaves the Royals with two pretty likely candidates (along with Soria). It is entirely feasible that Meche, Teahen, or someone else joins those two. Saying that, I'll need a few breaks to nail this prediction.

Prediction No. 3: The Royals will finish over .500 in 2009, with 83 wins.

Here we are at last, with a prediction that is not only possible, but (gulp) borderline likely. The Royals are currently 12-10, and stand atop the AL Central standings. Even the most critical of Royals fans are glowing with excitement now. With a strong 1-2-3 in the rotation, the Royals seem like a good bet to compete all season long. The Central has been lacking thus far, and Kansas City has a bit of momentum as they turn into the summer months. As well as they have played, things could easily be better for the division leaders. Without even considering the blown saves Kyle Farnsworth has graced us with, the Royals would be better off if any number of the following had happened in April: Alex Gordon had not been injured, Billy Butler had played to his expectations, Joakim Soria had avoided shoulder discomfort, Jose Guillen had not partially torn a muscle in his hip, Mike Aviles had bypassed the sophomore jinx, and (this week's sign of the apocalypse) Sidney Ponson had gotten some run support. So I think its safe to hope that things may actually improve for this squad. Now, if only Billy Butler can just erupt in May...
In Hindsight: I got a little help from Nostradamus with this one. It looks like the Royals could be even better than I thought, a missed prediction I could certainly live with.

Tony Gonzalez Trade Leaves Me Guessing

Today, after months of speculation, Tony Gonzalez was traded to the Atlanta Falcons. This in itself is not especially surprising. Gonzalez trade rumors had been floating around far too long for a deal not to have happened by this Saturday's NFL draft.
And the Chiefs received a second round pick for Gonzalez, which was also no surprise, but rather just solid compensation for a Pro-Bowl player just closing out the prime of his career. No, the only real surprise was that the second round draft pick the Chiefs received was for the 2010 draft. The one that's two days and one year away.
On the outside, this makes little sense. The Chiefs were already down a second round pick this year due to the trade that brought Matt Cassel over from New England. Gonzalez was supposed to be the chip that brought that pick back to us. Now, Kansas City is without a choice between the no. 3 overall pick and the 67th selection in the draft. Put in other words, the Chiefs will make their first selection at approximately 3:30 p.m. Central time on Saturday. Their next selection will come at about 9:30 a.m. on Sunday morning.
Now, maybe the Falcons were the only team offering a second round pick for Gonzalez. If that's the case, why not search for a team in the lower half of the third round willing to offer a pick in this year's draft? The Philadelphia Eagles were known to express interest, and the Green Bay Packers were after Tony G before last season's trading deadline. Shouldn't someone have been willing to pony up with a pick in this year's draft?
With so many holes to fill, (linebacker, Defensive end, running back, offensive tackle/guard, now tight end) I can only assume now that Kansas City GM Scott Pioli has another major move planned before Saturday. A hunch tells me that move would be an attempt to trade the number 3 pick in the draft.
For months now, I have held out hope that Aaron Curry would be available when the Chiefs make their first selection Saturday. Even before the Combine, Curry seemed like the best overall prospect in the draft. After the Combine, he became a sure-thing. There is now talk out of Detroit (where the woeful Lions hold the top pick in the draft) that if they can't agree to a deal with quarterback Matthew Stafford before the draft, they will take Wake Forest grad Curry, whose agent has already hammered out a contract just in case.
If that situation does play out, Kansas City will be in an interesting position. If Stafford slips to No. 3, The Chiefs should be able to entice bidders for the right to choose him. With Seattle sitting at No. 4 and thinking quarterback, it would be a high-leverage situation that Scott Pioli would be sure to exploit. It all sounds great on paper, at least.
Pioli would do well for himself to secure more draft picks for the young Chiefs. The roster he inherited is young and flawed. Trading Tony Gonzalez will hurt both in the passing game and in their blocking schemes, and its going to take several players to fill that void. As of now, I don't see how Pioli and Co. can possibly do that this offseason. At least, that is, unless the Lions do in fact take Aaron Curry. A guy can dream, right?

Chiefs Should Make a Play For Cutler

I'm going to be unabashed here in my belief that the Chiefs would do well to quietly go after Jay Cutler. When I say quietly, the emphasis is on avoiding a Broncos-esque PR disaster that leads Chiefs brass into an uncomfortable situation with recently acquired QB Matt Cassel. Before you remind me of everything that is wrong with Jay Cutler and exploring a trade for him, (crybaby, egomaniac, quitter, pretty boy...I know) at least listen to some very sound reasons why it wouldn't be the worst idea in the world.

For starters, I'm not afraid to admit, I actually like Cutler as a football player. He is an above average quarterback bordering on elite who, at age 25, has just completed his best year as a pro. It was his first full season since being diagnosed with diabetes and his performance came despite seven Broncos running backs ending the season on IR. The defense was horrific. Mike Shanahan was on the verge of being fired. It was a tough end to a season full of expectations.

But Cutler emerged as the team leader, often playing from behind and never selling out his over-exposed defense. He made the Pro Bowl, throwing for over 4,000 yards. He did more than any young quarterback should ever be asked to do. And yet Shanahan was fired after the disappointing season. Hotshot Patriots coordinator Josh McDaniels was chosen as his successor. McDaniels assured Cutler that he was the teams quarterback of the present and future. He then, like clockwork, informed offensive coordinator and Cutler confidant Jeremy Bates that he was no longer in Denver's plans. Some would say this was a great way to alienate your best player and team leader, but Cutler handled it relatively well. What he didn't handle so well was when the team, mere weeks after assuring him he was their man, swung hard and missed on former New England Patriots and current Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel. Tell me, what Pro Bowl quarterback would take that news well?

So, you say, boo hoo. And I agree. I'm not shedding any tears for Cutler. But this fiasco may well turn into an opportunity for the Chiefs, if they are so inclined. The Chiefs have a luxury that not one other team in the NFL can claim: they have the quarterback that the Denver Broncos covet. Think about it. This could make for some fantastic bargaining leverage. Some people say that the Broncos would never trade Cutler to a division rival. And normally I would concur. But the wild card is Cassel. This is the Broncos guy. Acquiring him would solve this whole controversy.

Owner Pat Bowlen's announcement that Cutler will be traded further complicates things for the team. Every team in the league now knows there is no turning back. Furthermore, the Broncos will need a new starting quarterback in any deal that they make. So why not go for the guy they wanted in the first place? Because the Chiefs have all of that highly sought leverage, they could potentially trade the quarterbacks even up and ditch the 14 million dollars guaranteed to Cassel by franchise-tagging him this season. If they wanted to push their luck, they might be able to coerce a late round pick out of them too, just to prove they won the deal. And what, you wonder, is the financial obligation to Cutler? I never thought you'd ask. He makes a whopping 1.035 million this season, and 5.4225 mil next season, including incentives. That's less money than a one year commitment to Cassel.

Right now the Chiefs are holding all the cards if they choose to jump into the bidding for Cutler. But you have to get in the game to win big.