No one would blame them for cashing in while the iron is hot. From a purely fiscal standpoint, Kansas stars Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich would do well for themselves by dropping out of school, declaring for the draft, and channeling all of their energy into pre-draft workouts. Aldrich scored big in the NCAA Tournament by turning in his first career triple-double, a 13 point, 20 rebound, 10 block extravaganza against Dayton. He also played well in the Sweet 16 loss to Michigan State, turning in 17 points to go with 14 rebounds, 4 assists, (only) 4 blocks, and 2 steals. His draft stock skyrocketed with his showing, and he's got little reason to stay at KU, earning a top-notch education aside.
Sherron Collins nearly equalled Aldrich's production, as he shot 32-58 for the tournament, good for 55% shooting. Collins was the clear leader of a team that overachieved all season long. Collins was a force, and the numbers back that up. Collins currently ranks 4th among the tournament's leading scorers, a feat that only gets more impressive when one considers he played one less game than every other player in the top 10. A junior, Collins has nothing left to gain(financially) and everything to lose by staying for another season. The Jayhawks will have a highly touted class coming in next year, and it is unlikely that he will be able to improve upon his 2009 NCAA Tournament production with more talent around him.
My thought is that both players should go. The program can only be helped by sending their promising young talents on to greener pastures and NBA success. As sad as it is, promising recruits with NBA dreams want to go to a school where they can fulfill their unlimited, and largely untapped, potential. Kansas, under head coach Bill Self, is becoming increasingly appealing to these players. With Aldrich and Collins pumping up the school's draft profile yet again, the remaining undecided high school seniors (ahem, John Wall and Lance Stephenson) may be intrigued at the chance to be the man on a contending team with unsurpassed tradition. Even with the loss of their two best players, Kansas will be strong next year.
They have already secured Top 30 recruits Thomas Robinson and Elijah Johnson, along with Arizona 7-foot transfer Jeff Withey, who will be available for the Spring semester. With even modest improvement from the Morris twins, the Jayhawks could still have a formidable frontcourt. The backcourt, with newcomer Johnson to go with sophomores-to-be Tyshawn Taylor, Mario Little, Travis Releford as well as juniors Brady Morningstar and Tyrell Reed, will be inexperienced but talented. Am I arguing that the 2009-2010 Kansas team will be better without Collins and Aldrich? No.
But, being the glass-is-half-full guy that I am, I can envision a situation where losing the two best players may yet provide a boon to the program. If both players do bolt for the NBA, the door may just open for another top recruit to sway his choice of where to train for the 2010 NBA draft next season.
And, you know, go to school while he's at it.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Friday, March 13, 2009
Predictable Big 12 Tournament Gets a Dash of the Unexpected
Since its inception in 1997, the Big 12 Tournament has been predictable. And really, that is an understatement. In the 12 years of its existence, The Big 12 Tournament has only been won by four teams. Kansas has won 6, Oklahoma 3, Oklahoma State 2, and Iowa State 1 in what can only be described as their Marcus Fizer/Jamaal Tinsley glory year(singular). No seed below #3 has ever won the crown.
So I should say that the Big 12 Tournament is as predictable as April showers, more predictable than May flowers, and only slightly less predictable than a Missouri loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. So it should not be surprising that I'm currently searching for evidence that I've entered the Twilight Zone. Allow me to recap.
Tournament action began on Wednesday afternoon, and things looked about normal as Nebraska ducked out in the first round. Despite being seeded higher than Baylor, was there any doubt that the Huskers would make a first round upset? Chalk that up there with predictable things that happen during the Big 12 Tournament, along with Kansas State losing their first game in demoralizing fashion*. So no one was shocked to see Baylor pull the "upset", because lets face it, they were supposed to be the better team anyway.
*Four words for you: The Pervis Pasco game.
It was business as usual the rest of the afternoon as Texas and Oklahoma State took care of business, sealing enticing match-ups in Round 2 against Kansas State and Oklahoma, respectively. So when Texas A&M began handling Texas Tech, taking an easy 48-29 halftime lead, yours truly and others let out a collective yawn and prepared ourselves for the next days action. Unfortunately for us, we missed the creepy Twilight Zone intro music that started up at about the same time.
Because after the break, the Texas Tech Mike Singletary's exploded for 58 points, including 29 consecutive points for Mr. Singletary himself that surged the suddenly dangerous Red Raiders to an 88-83 victory. It was a virtuoso performance, from a distinctly un-virtuoso type of player. In essence, it was exactly what this Tournament needed. And it didn't end there.
Thursday provided the most impressive string of upsets in Big 12 Tournament history, with 3 of the 4 higher seeds going down. The onslaught began when Kansas faced Baylor in the 11:30 a.m tipoff game. Baylor took advantage of the early start and raced out to a 17 point first half lead. Luckily, a frantic University of Kansas employee was able to coerce the drowsy Kansas team from their rooms to play the second half, and things stabilized for the Jayhawks. They stormed back and took a five point lead with a few minutes to play, all but ensuring that they would make the Semifinals for the umpteenth consecutive year. But Baylor forgot that they were supposed to collapse and fought until the final buzzer, pulling out an impressive 71-64 victory.
Kansas State (predictably) went on to lose to #5 seed Texas, trying to restore order to a tournament that threatened to go haywire at any moment. But their efforts simply were not enough to keep things on track, as Oklahoma State upended Oklahoma in a one point victory and secured a semi-final berth. Texas Tech ran out of gas in their matchup against Missouri, making the Tigers the only top seed to advance to the semi-final round.
So here we were with the conventional #9-#5 and #3-#7 matchups in Friday's games, with Baylor and Texas kicking things off and Missouri-Oklahoma State as the nightcap. Remember that no team seeded lower than #3 has ever won the Big 12 Tournament. Even this round is a significant event in a tournament that up until this year has been anything but a crapshoot.
And what happened? Well, Baylor continued its odyssey by winning against Texas and advancing to the Big 12 Title game. They will face Missouri there, a Missouri team which has everything to play for. And by everything, I mean a possible placement in Kansas City from the NCAA Tournament Selection. But Baylor, they've got a thing or two left to say to. There's nothing quite like playing a basketball game in Oklahoma City that's watched by college basketball coaches, pundits, and players all across the country. The University of Wisconsin will watch it. And Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. USC will be interested, as will Saint Mary's, Texas A@M, and Providence.
Baylor could very well take a much coveted NCAA Tournament spot from any of those teams, all of which will likely be sitting on the edge of their seats for the duration of the game. They will watch because all these teams know, deep down in their hearts, that anything is possible...in the Twilight Zone.
So I should say that the Big 12 Tournament is as predictable as April showers, more predictable than May flowers, and only slightly less predictable than a Missouri loss in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. So it should not be surprising that I'm currently searching for evidence that I've entered the Twilight Zone. Allow me to recap.
Tournament action began on Wednesday afternoon, and things looked about normal as Nebraska ducked out in the first round. Despite being seeded higher than Baylor, was there any doubt that the Huskers would make a first round upset? Chalk that up there with predictable things that happen during the Big 12 Tournament, along with Kansas State losing their first game in demoralizing fashion*. So no one was shocked to see Baylor pull the "upset", because lets face it, they were supposed to be the better team anyway.
*Four words for you: The Pervis Pasco game.
It was business as usual the rest of the afternoon as Texas and Oklahoma State took care of business, sealing enticing match-ups in Round 2 against Kansas State and Oklahoma, respectively. So when Texas A&M began handling Texas Tech, taking an easy 48-29 halftime lead, yours truly and others let out a collective yawn and prepared ourselves for the next days action. Unfortunately for us, we missed the creepy Twilight Zone intro music that started up at about the same time.
Because after the break, the Texas Tech Mike Singletary's exploded for 58 points, including 29 consecutive points for Mr. Singletary himself that surged the suddenly dangerous Red Raiders to an 88-83 victory. It was a virtuoso performance, from a distinctly un-virtuoso type of player. In essence, it was exactly what this Tournament needed. And it didn't end there.
Thursday provided the most impressive string of upsets in Big 12 Tournament history, with 3 of the 4 higher seeds going down. The onslaught began when Kansas faced Baylor in the 11:30 a.m tipoff game. Baylor took advantage of the early start and raced out to a 17 point first half lead. Luckily, a frantic University of Kansas employee was able to coerce the drowsy Kansas team from their rooms to play the second half, and things stabilized for the Jayhawks. They stormed back and took a five point lead with a few minutes to play, all but ensuring that they would make the Semifinals for the umpteenth consecutive year. But Baylor forgot that they were supposed to collapse and fought until the final buzzer, pulling out an impressive 71-64 victory.
Kansas State (predictably) went on to lose to #5 seed Texas, trying to restore order to a tournament that threatened to go haywire at any moment. But their efforts simply were not enough to keep things on track, as Oklahoma State upended Oklahoma in a one point victory and secured a semi-final berth. Texas Tech ran out of gas in their matchup against Missouri, making the Tigers the only top seed to advance to the semi-final round.
So here we were with the conventional #9-#5 and #3-#7 matchups in Friday's games, with Baylor and Texas kicking things off and Missouri-Oklahoma State as the nightcap. Remember that no team seeded lower than #3 has ever won the Big 12 Tournament. Even this round is a significant event in a tournament that up until this year has been anything but a crapshoot.
And what happened? Well, Baylor continued its odyssey by winning against Texas and advancing to the Big 12 Title game. They will face Missouri there, a Missouri team which has everything to play for. And by everything, I mean a possible placement in Kansas City from the NCAA Tournament Selection. But Baylor, they've got a thing or two left to say to. There's nothing quite like playing a basketball game in Oklahoma City that's watched by college basketball coaches, pundits, and players all across the country. The University of Wisconsin will watch it. And Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. USC will be interested, as will Saint Mary's, Texas A@M, and Providence.
Baylor could very well take a much coveted NCAA Tournament spot from any of those teams, all of which will likely be sitting on the edge of their seats for the duration of the game. They will watch because all these teams know, deep down in their hearts, that anything is possible...in the Twilight Zone.
Friday, March 6, 2009
AROD Has an Injured Hip!!!
Just kidding. I am not, or will I ever, write any piece about an injury to Alex Rodriguez. But I do think it is time for me to make a stand on the amount of news hovering around the "fraudulent one" and others like him. Over the past few months, I have heard enough about Manny, A-Rod, and T.O. to earn a Masters degree in needless drivel. I now watch Sportscenter through clenched teeth. When will the madness end?
First its A-Rod's love life, then his decision to play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, followed by the steroids allegations (I guess steroids can be purchased over the counter in the Dominican. Maybe that explains the loyalty), which were followed by the "Cousin Reports", which all inevitably led to the announcement that Rodriguez was severely injured and would need to drain a cyst out of his hip.
All of this A-Rod coverage was unsightly and unneccesary, because really when push comes to shove, I guess that 70% of the country couldn't care less about Rodriguez.
There are four major professional sports that are all currently involved in heavy regular season or off-season activity. I would gladly listen to developing stories about the NFL hot stove, MLB Spring Training or the WBC, the possible NCAA Tournament field, or the stretch drive towards what could be the best NBA season in years. Hell, I would even be more interested in the NHL trading deadline. But instead of any of this, I see the first twenty minutes of Sportscenter divided up between Manny(who I'll get to in a moment), A-Rod, and roughly 375 ESPN commentators eager to give their analysis.
And insightful it was. I learned that the Dodger offense will be noticeably better with Manny Ramirez finally signed, and that the Yankees will lose offensive production with ARod out of their lineup. You may think I am being overly simplistic in my description here, but I'm not. I literally sat and watched a talking head(in a distinct New York accent) make the argument that the Yankees will be hurt without ARod in the lineup. And this guy is getting paid to give us this analysis? OF COURSE the Yankees will lose offense without ARod! We don't need to hear a native New Yorker wallow in self-pity on-air for ten minutes to figure this out. It's common sense.
The same goes for the Manny Ramirez signing. Is there anyone who was truly sitting on the edge of their seat during the Manny Ramirez press conference after he signed his 2 year, 45 million dollar contract? Anybody besides the hordes of ESPN employees foaming at the mouth in the press corps? He signed roughly the exact same deal that the Dodgers put on the table four months ago, at the start of free agency. And up until the signing was announced earlier this week, the negotiations were kept under closer tabs than the national terror alert ratings. And the question I have is: who cares? It was painfully obvious that Manny had no other offers months ago. The story was beaten into the ground, unearthed, and then pummelled back into the earths core.
Now, I know that major sports outlets have to cater to the largest markets in the country first. But there needs to be limits. With the economy in as bad of shape as it is, I can't fathom how ESPN and others can afford to offer around the clock coverage on two aging baseball players.
First its A-Rod's love life, then his decision to play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, followed by the steroids allegations (I guess steroids can be purchased over the counter in the Dominican. Maybe that explains the loyalty), which were followed by the "Cousin Reports", which all inevitably led to the announcement that Rodriguez was severely injured and would need to drain a cyst out of his hip.
All of this A-Rod coverage was unsightly and unneccesary, because really when push comes to shove, I guess that 70% of the country couldn't care less about Rodriguez.
There are four major professional sports that are all currently involved in heavy regular season or off-season activity. I would gladly listen to developing stories about the NFL hot stove, MLB Spring Training or the WBC, the possible NCAA Tournament field, or the stretch drive towards what could be the best NBA season in years. Hell, I would even be more interested in the NHL trading deadline. But instead of any of this, I see the first twenty minutes of Sportscenter divided up between Manny(who I'll get to in a moment), A-Rod, and roughly 375 ESPN commentators eager to give their analysis.
And insightful it was. I learned that the Dodger offense will be noticeably better with Manny Ramirez finally signed, and that the Yankees will lose offensive production with ARod out of their lineup. You may think I am being overly simplistic in my description here, but I'm not. I literally sat and watched a talking head(in a distinct New York accent) make the argument that the Yankees will be hurt without ARod in the lineup. And this guy is getting paid to give us this analysis? OF COURSE the Yankees will lose offense without ARod! We don't need to hear a native New Yorker wallow in self-pity on-air for ten minutes to figure this out. It's common sense.
The same goes for the Manny Ramirez signing. Is there anyone who was truly sitting on the edge of their seat during the Manny Ramirez press conference after he signed his 2 year, 45 million dollar contract? Anybody besides the hordes of ESPN employees foaming at the mouth in the press corps? He signed roughly the exact same deal that the Dodgers put on the table four months ago, at the start of free agency. And up until the signing was announced earlier this week, the negotiations were kept under closer tabs than the national terror alert ratings. And the question I have is: who cares? It was painfully obvious that Manny had no other offers months ago. The story was beaten into the ground, unearthed, and then pummelled back into the earths core.
Now, I know that major sports outlets have to cater to the largest markets in the country first. But there needs to be limits. With the economy in as bad of shape as it is, I can't fathom how ESPN and others can afford to offer around the clock coverage on two aging baseball players.
Monday, March 2, 2009
Extra! Extra! Big News for KU!
I've just taken a peek at The Sports Department's official crystal ball(we keep it in the back), and I've learned something amazing. The University of Kansas men's basketball team will earn a No. 1 seed to the 2009 NCAA Tournament. Hey, don't kill the messenger. It's not me with the other-wordly powers of prediction, the ability to read the unwritten trials of the future... its the crystal ball. I'm just the guy in the brown uniform who drops it delicately on your doorsteps.
In this instance the all-powerful ball was kind enough to leave me the reasoning behind its predicition, arguing(pointedly) that no one would believe me without presenting the facts. So, in no particular order, here are those reasons:
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
There is nothing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee likes better than a team on the rise. A classic example of a team that should be worried is Texas. Back to back wins over UCLA and Villanova in early December bolstered their tournament resume, but a slump in conference play leaves them hoping for a spot. Texas is 4-6 since Janunary 31st, including a three game skid against Kansas State, Missouri, and Nebraska. If the Longhorns finish 6th in the conference, where they stand right now, can that be overlooked?
On the opposite end of the spectrum lies Kansas. They've won 13 of their last 14 games, all in- conference. Their one loss during that stretch came at Missouri on a Zaire Taylor buzzer beater; the same Missouri team who the Jayhawks just grilled on Sunday by 25 points. I'd call that vindication. Kansas also beat expected No. 1 seed Oklahoma (albeit sans megastar Blake Griffin)
last week in all but clinching the Big 12 Conference title, which should be renamed in their honor any year now. If they win out and finish 15-1 in conference, they would be another Big 12 Tournament title away from serious No. 1 consideration. This would sound far-fetched and opitimistic for most teams, but that's what Kansas does. The Jayhawks have won 6 of the 12 Big 12 Conference Tournaments (the conference didn't exist until 1997). This isn't a stretch. In fact...
Some Teams in Front of Kansas Have Major Obstacles in Their Way
I'm taking a gander at the latest RPI rankings, and Kansas is listed at #7. Here is the Top 10, in order, followed by their actual AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Pittsburg(3)
2. Duke(7)
3. North Carolina(2)
4. Michigan State(8)
5.Oklahoma(4)
6. Connecticut(1)
7. Kansas(9)
8. Memphis(5)
9. Utah(NR)
10. Louisville(6)
Now, there are only four No.1 teams, and I am going to assume that these teams have the best chance at being in those spots. That is, with the obvious exception of Utah, who has no business being mentioned with these teams and is struggling to even secure a spot in the Dance, much less a No. 1 seed. Their inclusion in the top 10 in the RPI tells you all you need to know about the flaws of the system. But besides them, the other schools are at least contenders. Of the remaning nine schools, several have concerns.
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: I'm putting these two together because I don't see a situation where they both make it. Pittsburgh's dirty little secret is that they had a very pedestrian non-conference slate. Their best win came at #24 Florida State, but the rest of the slate is barren.
UConn is the closest thing to a lock at this point, having lost only two games all season. But if they suffer another loss to Pittsburgh and fall before the Big East final, their status gets much murkier. Both teams play in the tough Big East, but that is a double-edged sword. Still left on the plate for Pitt are Connecticut and #15 Marquette. I see them losing to UConn* and then beating an undermanned Marquette squad. Either way, only one of these two will get a precious No. 1 seed.
*Also at play here is the fact that three of the top six teams in the AP poll are from the Big East. With Pitt and UConn slated to face off next Sunday, one is guaranteed to lose ground in the race for a No. 1 seed. Louisville now turns into a dark horse, especially if Pitt beats UConn Sunday and Louisville secures a one seed in the conference tournament. I'll get to that.
Louisville: Despite a horrible 17 point loss to UConn and a 23 point loss to previously AWOL Notre Dame, Louisville is still very much in the hunt to win their conference. If they can do that, it would set up a potential semifinal game with injury-riddled Marquette, while Pitt and UConn would battle in the other semifinal. This tends to give creedence to my belief that only one of those two teams can secure a No. 1 seed. While I don't think Louisville is deserving, as they have the worst losses of any team in consideration(Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV), the scheduling gods may just give them a freshly stamped invitation to their conference championship game. They need to win out to be considered, and winning out would mean a victory over (potentially) UConn or Pittsburgh. I don't think Louisville is consistent enough, personally, but if they are, all the power to them. They would likely be stealing the assumed to be locked up Pitt/UConn top seed.
Memphis: Now here is a team who I feel is miscast among the big boys. Conference USA, where the Tigers call home, can proudly claim to be the 10th best conference in college basketball, just behind the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley conferences. Conference USA is abysmal, and no team playing in it should be considered for a top NCAA Tournament seed. Period. Memphis is a mere 50th in strength of schedule, and have only had one win against a team ranked in the Top 25 (Gonzaga). Even by winning their conference tournament, I will have them no higher than a No. 2 seed. They just don't deserve to be higher.
Duke/UNC: Much like Pitt/UConn, Duke and North Carolina are tightly linked. Like their Big East counterparts, Duke and North Carolina play again in Chapel Hill on March 8th. They also still have to play their conference tournament, where one squad is mathematically guaranteed to lose. The winner of Sunday's game should have the inside edge, but Duke needs the victory a bit more. I still can't imagine both teams at No. 1 come Selection Sunday. My hunch is that UNC wins this weekend and all but secures the nod for themselves, barring an unforseen turn for the worst in the conference tournament.
Michigan State: Even though I unapologetically loathe the Big 10, I can view this team without those blinders on. I can do this because I saw them dominate the Kansas Jayhawks on January 10, 75-62. It was worse than the score indicated. Michigan State also beat Big 12 bubble resters Oklahoma State and Texas. They are only ranked #8, though, and will need to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed. My hunch is that they will do just that, beating Purdue at home this Sunday and taking that momentum to a Big 10 Conference crown. If they do they should be able to snag one of the four top spots.
Oklahoma/Kansas: As of now I have three teams pegged for the four possible No. 1 seeds. They are UConn/Pitt, Duke/UNC, Michigan State, and now OU/KU. Well, if you've caught the gist of this article, its that Kansas will claim that elusive fourth no. 1 seed, meaning they will likely be able to play their first round games in Kansas City, which I shouldn't have to mention would be a distinct advantage. I think Kansas will win out the regular season and take home their conference tournament title, beating OU for the second time in the process. Granted this is all hypothetical, but if Oklahoma lose twice to Kansas, there is no way they would be considered ahead of the boys in blue. Blake Griffin is a beast, I realize, and the Big 12 tournament is being held in Oklahoma City, but Bill Self is still the coach up in Lawrence and its the same team that's lost only one conference game. Look for them to hoist another conference trophy over their heads.
If all this isn't enough to convince you that Kansas will become a No. 1 seed, surely you'll be convinced by the fact that...
I Was Just Assured By a Crystal Ball That This Would Happen
Really, the rest of the case is just semantics.
In this instance the all-powerful ball was kind enough to leave me the reasoning behind its predicition, arguing(pointedly) that no one would believe me without presenting the facts. So, in no particular order, here are those reasons:
What Have You Done For Me Lately?
There is nothing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee likes better than a team on the rise. A classic example of a team that should be worried is Texas. Back to back wins over UCLA and Villanova in early December bolstered their tournament resume, but a slump in conference play leaves them hoping for a spot. Texas is 4-6 since Janunary 31st, including a three game skid against Kansas State, Missouri, and Nebraska. If the Longhorns finish 6th in the conference, where they stand right now, can that be overlooked?
On the opposite end of the spectrum lies Kansas. They've won 13 of their last 14 games, all in- conference. Their one loss during that stretch came at Missouri on a Zaire Taylor buzzer beater; the same Missouri team who the Jayhawks just grilled on Sunday by 25 points. I'd call that vindication. Kansas also beat expected No. 1 seed Oklahoma (albeit sans megastar Blake Griffin)
last week in all but clinching the Big 12 Conference title, which should be renamed in their honor any year now. If they win out and finish 15-1 in conference, they would be another Big 12 Tournament title away from serious No. 1 consideration. This would sound far-fetched and opitimistic for most teams, but that's what Kansas does. The Jayhawks have won 6 of the 12 Big 12 Conference Tournaments (the conference didn't exist until 1997). This isn't a stretch. In fact...
Some Teams in Front of Kansas Have Major Obstacles in Their Way
I'm taking a gander at the latest RPI rankings, and Kansas is listed at #7. Here is the Top 10, in order, followed by their actual AP rankings in parentheses.
1. Pittsburg(3)
2. Duke(7)
3. North Carolina(2)
4. Michigan State(8)
5.Oklahoma(4)
6. Connecticut(1)
7. Kansas(9)
8. Memphis(5)
9. Utah(NR)
10. Louisville(6)
Now, there are only four No.1 teams, and I am going to assume that these teams have the best chance at being in those spots. That is, with the obvious exception of Utah, who has no business being mentioned with these teams and is struggling to even secure a spot in the Dance, much less a No. 1 seed. Their inclusion in the top 10 in the RPI tells you all you need to know about the flaws of the system. But besides them, the other schools are at least contenders. Of the remaning nine schools, several have concerns.
Pittsburgh/Connecticut: I'm putting these two together because I don't see a situation where they both make it. Pittsburgh's dirty little secret is that they had a very pedestrian non-conference slate. Their best win came at #24 Florida State, but the rest of the slate is barren.
UConn is the closest thing to a lock at this point, having lost only two games all season. But if they suffer another loss to Pittsburgh and fall before the Big East final, their status gets much murkier. Both teams play in the tough Big East, but that is a double-edged sword. Still left on the plate for Pitt are Connecticut and #15 Marquette. I see them losing to UConn* and then beating an undermanned Marquette squad. Either way, only one of these two will get a precious No. 1 seed.
*Also at play here is the fact that three of the top six teams in the AP poll are from the Big East. With Pitt and UConn slated to face off next Sunday, one is guaranteed to lose ground in the race for a No. 1 seed. Louisville now turns into a dark horse, especially if Pitt beats UConn Sunday and Louisville secures a one seed in the conference tournament. I'll get to that.
Louisville: Despite a horrible 17 point loss to UConn and a 23 point loss to previously AWOL Notre Dame, Louisville is still very much in the hunt to win their conference. If they can do that, it would set up a potential semifinal game with injury-riddled Marquette, while Pitt and UConn would battle in the other semifinal. This tends to give creedence to my belief that only one of those two teams can secure a No. 1 seed. While I don't think Louisville is deserving, as they have the worst losses of any team in consideration(Western Kentucky, Minnesota, UNLV), the scheduling gods may just give them a freshly stamped invitation to their conference championship game. They need to win out to be considered, and winning out would mean a victory over (potentially) UConn or Pittsburgh. I don't think Louisville is consistent enough, personally, but if they are, all the power to them. They would likely be stealing the assumed to be locked up Pitt/UConn top seed.
Memphis: Now here is a team who I feel is miscast among the big boys. Conference USA, where the Tigers call home, can proudly claim to be the 10th best conference in college basketball, just behind the Atlantic 10 and Missouri Valley conferences. Conference USA is abysmal, and no team playing in it should be considered for a top NCAA Tournament seed. Period. Memphis is a mere 50th in strength of schedule, and have only had one win against a team ranked in the Top 25 (Gonzaga). Even by winning their conference tournament, I will have them no higher than a No. 2 seed. They just don't deserve to be higher.
Duke/UNC: Much like Pitt/UConn, Duke and North Carolina are tightly linked. Like their Big East counterparts, Duke and North Carolina play again in Chapel Hill on March 8th. They also still have to play their conference tournament, where one squad is mathematically guaranteed to lose. The winner of Sunday's game should have the inside edge, but Duke needs the victory a bit more. I still can't imagine both teams at No. 1 come Selection Sunday. My hunch is that UNC wins this weekend and all but secures the nod for themselves, barring an unforseen turn for the worst in the conference tournament.
Michigan State: Even though I unapologetically loathe the Big 10, I can view this team without those blinders on. I can do this because I saw them dominate the Kansas Jayhawks on January 10, 75-62. It was worse than the score indicated. Michigan State also beat Big 12 bubble resters Oklahoma State and Texas. They are only ranked #8, though, and will need to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed. My hunch is that they will do just that, beating Purdue at home this Sunday and taking that momentum to a Big 10 Conference crown. If they do they should be able to snag one of the four top spots.
Oklahoma/Kansas: As of now I have three teams pegged for the four possible No. 1 seeds. They are UConn/Pitt, Duke/UNC, Michigan State, and now OU/KU. Well, if you've caught the gist of this article, its that Kansas will claim that elusive fourth no. 1 seed, meaning they will likely be able to play their first round games in Kansas City, which I shouldn't have to mention would be a distinct advantage. I think Kansas will win out the regular season and take home their conference tournament title, beating OU for the second time in the process. Granted this is all hypothetical, but if Oklahoma lose twice to Kansas, there is no way they would be considered ahead of the boys in blue. Blake Griffin is a beast, I realize, and the Big 12 tournament is being held in Oklahoma City, but Bill Self is still the coach up in Lawrence and its the same team that's lost only one conference game. Look for them to hoist another conference trophy over their heads.
If all this isn't enough to convince you that Kansas will become a No. 1 seed, surely you'll be convinced by the fact that...
I Was Just Assured By a Crystal Ball That This Would Happen
Really, the rest of the case is just semantics.
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